Natasha Jonas vs. Mikaela Mayer Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Natasha Jonas vs. Mikaela Mayer today, Saturday, Jan. 20 – our expert boxing prediction and pick.
The first true 50-50 fight high-profile boxing match of 2024 will stream on ESPN+ on Saturday afternoon stateside (2 p.m. ET) and at night for our homies over in the U.K.
IBF world welterweight champion Natasha Jonas (14-2-1, 9 KOs) will defend her crown against former unified super featherweight titlist Mikaela Mayer (19-1, 5 KOs).
Jonas, 39, is a 2012 Olympian and decorated amateur who has become a world champion as a pro multiple times over.
Mayer, 33, is a 2016 Olympian who signed to Top Rank, and she's been with them throughout her professional career.
Let's break down the Jonas vs. Mayer odds with my prediction and favorite betting angles for Saturday's ESPN+ main event.
Jonas vs. Mayer Analysis
We'll start with the champ.
You see two losses and a draw on Jonas' record, and comparatively, you might wonder why she's about a narrow -140 favorite (as of this writing), depending on where you look. Why is that?
Well for one, it's Jonas' weight class. She, like Mayer, started at 130 pounds, but she's accomplished as a pro across multiple weight classes.
Jonas drew for a world title at super featherweight with Terri Harper, lost a narrow decision to Katie Taylor for the undisputed lightweight title in May 2021, and won three super welterweight titles in three separate fights in 2022 before moving down to win her first welterweight crown last summer.
Jonas' draw with Harper was scored 96-94 in her favor, 95-95 and 96-94 for Harper, and I thought Jonas should've won. Against Taylor, she came up short 96-95 twice and 96-94 on the judges' cards, and that could've easily been a draw, but good luck getting that in a Taylor-scored fight.
Jonas' first loss was the outlier. After building a 6-0 record with five knockouts to start her career, she was stopped by Viviane Obenauf, who was just wild as hell (outside of the ring as well – but you can Google that). Jonas had been boxing effectively and just got caught in Round 3, then stopped in Round 4.
Obenauf had little to no defense but would relentlessly push forward and just clipped Jonas bad enough to where she never fully recovered. Jonas was down three times in Round 3 and once in Round 4, the only times in her pro career.
Since her debut in 2017, Jonas was back and forth between super featherweight and lightweight until moving to super lightweight in 2021 and then super welterweight in 2022 before dropping back to welterweight last year.
Mayer secured her first super featherweight championship in October 2020, beating fellow undefeated and then-title-holder Ewa Brodnicka, who lost her title on the scale before the bout and got whooped all 10 rounds.
Mayer successfully defended her title with three subsequent wide unanimous decisions, unifying a second belt before unifying all four titles against Alycia Baumgardner in October 2022 – her highest-profile bout.
In a controversial decision – more so even now due to Baumgardner testing positive last year for having multiple steroids in her system, though she has received zero sanctions as of now – Mayer lost a split decision 97-93 in her favor and 95-96 twice for Baumgardner.
Mayer won two decisions last year at lightweight and super lightweight, most recently against Silvia Bortot in September, before her sudden welterweight jump.
Jonas vs. Mayer Breakdown
Mayer is 5-foot-9 with a 66.5-inch reach, and even with her fight and lack of stoppages, she insists that she'll continue to fight on the inside, as she has against everyone, including the powerful Baumgardner.
Mayer no longer has to cut to 130 pounds but will be at her career heaviest for a third straight bout.
Jonas moved up sooner, as mentioned earlier, and has the heavier hands between the two, scoring a TKO win over Kandi Wyatt in July 2023.
Jonas also stopped Chris Namus in Round 2 in 2022 to win her first world title, giving her two stoppages in her last four fights.
Though older, Jonas will have some physical advantages, including size and length.
Though she, at 5-foot-8, gives an inch to Mayer, she has a 68-inch reach, which bothered Taylor in their aforementioned undisputed clash, in which Jonas was able to land straight left hands, lead hooks, and rear uppercuts with success.
Jonas notably struggled with Taylor's speed, and Mayer is notably fast, but it's unclear how her speed will translate at welterweight.
In terms of power, Mayer wasn't a knockout artist even at 130 pounds, and it would be stunning to see her bother Jonas with sheer strength.
Both ladies can be skilled defensively, but in general, they're mostly hittable targets. Mayer will likely lean on setting up her straight right hand mixed with some left hooks for much of the night, and for Jonas, it'll be her straight left and right hook.
Additionally, Jonas offers more variety in her punches, and in my opinion, is more of a skilled body puncher.
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Jonas vs. Mayer Pick
I look at Mayer jumping three weight classes in a year, Jonas' improvement since her first loss (the loss and draw since are debatable) and Jonas' power advantage, so I've leaned in that direction.
But Mayer could be undefeated if not for a razor-thin loss to Baumgardner, which has grown in question over time.
Still, I think the weight will play a factor, and while I respect Mayer's ability as someone who could return to the pound-for-pound list with a victory, I think Jonas wins this one, especially with the bout being in Liverpool, her hometown.
Here's how I bet it.
Jonas is -135 straight up, +100 by decision, and +1100 by knockout at DraftKings as of this writing.
My lean was decision from the jump, though Mayer is hittable and fights on the inside, and there's a world where Jonas just catches her with a check right hook that alters the trajectory of the fight, albeit unlikely.
So I'm officially rolling with Jonas on points at +106 (via FanDuel), and I might sprinkle something small on the stoppage at +1100 (DraftKings), just in case. But again, I doubt that's how this one ends.
Depending on how you structure your bets, you could bet a net positive either way – for example, 1 unit on Jonas via decision and 0.1 unit on the stoppage. That way, if our main bet wins, we net 0.96 units. However, if Jonas gets the unexpected stoppage, we'd still profit 0.1 units thanks to that +1100 hedge.
That might be a little more fun than a standard moneyline bet, where Caesars has the best odds (-125) as of Friday afternoon.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.
The Pick: Natasha Jonas by Points or Decision (+106 at FanDuel)
