O'Shaquie Foster vs. Abraham Nova Odds
Here's everything you need to know about O'Shaquie Foster vs. Abraham Nova on Friday, Feb. 16 – our expert boxing prediction and pick.
We have a low-profile, nerdy but fun fight to preview this week.
And for the second straight time, the main event won't be on its customary Saturday night; this will be Friday night on ESPN at Madison Square Garden Theater in New York City (9 p.m. ET).
The skilled and underrated O'Shaquie Foster (21-2, 12 KOs) will defend his WBC super featherweight title against hard-hitting contender Abraham Nova (23-1, 16 KOs).
It's a fight that will 100% go under the radar, but that doesn't affect anyone's ability to profit, especially when the lines seem out of whack.
So here's my Foster vs. Nova prediction and betting pick for tonight's boxing main event on ESPN.
Foster vs. Nova Analysis
Unless you know boxing, you might not have heard of either of these dudes.
You also might look at Foster's two losses and think he's not that good, but oh contraire: Foster's losses are quality ones.
At 8-0, he lost a close unanimous decision to Samuel Teah, who has quality wins over contenders such as Sonny Fredrickson and Kenneth Sims Jr., and Foster's second loss was a debatable split decision to Rolando Chinea three fights later.
Foster comes into this bout having won 11 straight, including five by knockout. He isn't the biggest puncher, but I think the low-KO output is largely due to a lack of inflated victories because he actually fought some quality opposition relative to his level while an up-and-comer. In other words, he didn't build up his record fighting only tomato cans with sub-.500 records, especially on his current run.
Foster also leads the dance in experience having turned pro in 2012, and currently, he's a much improved 30-year-old peaking at the perfect time.
Nova, also 30, didn't turn pro until 2016 after a highly successful amateur career. I actually covered his second pro fight in Coney Island on Aug. 21, 2016 – a card that featured an up-and-coming Errol Spence Jr. as well as an all-out war between Heather Hardy and Shelly Vincent.
Nova won his bout by majority decision but was dropped in Round 2, though he recovered by scoring a knockdown in the follow-up run.
This will be Nova's first world title shot, though he did share the ring with featherweight-champion-to-be Robeisy Ramirez in June 2022, a night that ended quickly as Nova was knocked out in Round 3 after being stunned earlier on multiple occasions.
Nova is 2-0 with a knockout since, dropping Adam Lopez twice (really once) en route to a decision last January and knocking out Jonathan Romero in July.
Foster vs. Nova Breakdown
Foster and Nova are each about 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach. Nova elects to fight on the inside and has more of an engaging style than Foster, who'll likely be the boxer against the puncher in this equation.
Foster, who originally won his title against then-undefeated Rey Vargas in an upset decision win last February, defended his title against Mexican contender Eduardo Hernandez in Mexico this past October.
Hernandez was up on two scorecards heading into Round 12 and was finding success by frustrating Foster and forcing him to compete in a pressure bout, where he was able to land hooks to the champ's head and body.
You need to watch Round 11 from that fight:
As you see, Foster somehow emerged to score the TKO in Round 12, a championship-saving effort.
Nova has skill but probably isn't the exact same type of pressure fighter as Hernandez, but I'm willing to bet he'll look to break down Foster the same way, which is why I think the odds are a bit nuts.
(Boxing bettors: North Carolina sports betting should soon be online. Check out the latest legal happenings in the state.)
Foster vs. Nova Pick
To me, Foster should be favored, but -1100 is so damn outrageous to the point where it almost makes me not want to bet him despite knowing that the most likely outcome is him winning this bout.
Nova at +600 just makes him a worthy sprinkle on price alone, let alone the fight style that gave Foster some issues in Mexico before he answered some questions in the final moments of the Hernandez fight.
Still, there are multiple bets I'm tickled by.
I like Foster by by KO or TKO at +182. I'm also intrigued by Under 10.5 rounds at +166. The same goes for Nova by KO/TKO at +880 as a longshot sprinkle. All of those prices are on FanDuel.
However, my official pick that I settled on is Foster by KO/TKO at +182. He's just the better boxer, is sharper defensively, and is a deserved favorite, even though I think he's way overpriced on the moneyline. Also, Nova's chin is a question mark, and I like the value here vs. Foster on points at -122, even as that will be the favorite outcome for many.
I will still likely sprinkle something small on Nova by KO/TKO, because as I've often said, if you back an underdog, you typically need to back one with knockout ability. I didn't love how Foster looked in October despite the result, and I think Nova is being slept on a bit.
(Also, follow me on the Action App before my picks start to suck.)
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.
The Pick: O'Shaquie Foster by KO/TKO (+182 at FanDuel)
