Paul vs. Fury Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury: A Bet to Tick off the Purists (Sunday, February 26)

Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury Odds

Maybe, finally, hopefully, this fight is happening. We think.

The consciously captivating yet much-maligned showdown of Jake Paul and Tommy Fury takes place in Saudi Arabia – of course, it does – this Sunday afternoon, Feb. 26.

It's a grudge match between two – we'll call them "undefeated boxing prospects" for the sake of keeping this moving – and it's been discussed for over a year and had previously fallen through on multiple occasions.

Paul (6-0, 4 KOs) is the highly controversial YouTube star turned-boxer who still needs to box an actual boxer. Even so, WBC President Mauricio Sulaiman says he'd consider ranking Paul in their cruiserweight rankings if he wins on Sunday (2 p.m. ET main card, ESPN+ PPV).

Fury (8-0, 4 KOs) comes from the fighting family of Furys and rose to stardom away from the ring by finishing as the runner-up on "Love Island" on ITV2 in the U.K.

No, I didn't watch that sh-t, but apparently, many people did.

In any event, let's break down what is actually damn close to a 50-50 fight.

Fight Analysis

I've been going back and forth on these fools for a minute.

Paul has six victories to his name. He's 1-0 against fellow YouTubers, 1-0 against retired basketball players, and 4-0 against retired MMA fighters.

Paul's best win was against Anderson Silva this past October, when he dramatically scored an eighth-round knockdown en route to a unanimous decision victory, scored 78-73 twice and 77-74 in his favor. A bit too wide, in my opinion. I thought he was trailing before the knockdown and eeked out a 76-75 win over Silva, who was 3-1 in his not at all heralded boxing career prior to that.

Silva, however, did beat former world champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in the summer of 2021 via split decision in Mexico, but if you know boxing at all, you know how embarrassing Chavez Jr. has become after a promising start to his career – constantly missing weight and being labeled a quitter for his handling of multiple losses.

So via transitive property, you could say that Paul defeated a guy who beat a former world champion – I just wouldn't hang my hat on beating Chavez Jr., who is not at all like his father.

The combined opponents' record for Paul is 3-2. That includes Silva's 3-1 and Tyron Woodley's 0-1 – the "1" given to him by Paul in their first fight. So yes, four of his six wins came against debuting fighters who don't actually box. In fact, none of them really actually boxes.

Fury is the actual boxer here, but perhaps that's even in name only.

He's the half-brother of Tyson Fury, the WBC world heavyweight champion. His cousin is Hughie, a former world heavyweight title challenger. And his father, John, boxed professionally in the '80s and '90s.

Tommy Fury's 8-0 is arguably less impressive than the crap Paul has as a resume. Fury's opponents were a combined 14-175-5 with six knockouts before he outpointed 10-1 Daniel Bocianski in his last bout in April 2022. It's not uncommon for fighters to obliterate overmatched fighters while coming up. Hell, some even do it as contenders. In the U.K., even their best – guys like Liam Smith, Dillian Whyte and Joe Cordina – fought foes with records of 2-43-3, 9-49-6 and 7-30-3 in their early stages, to name a few.

That said, Fury has been boxing since age 12, and had a bit of an amateur career, even though it was just 12 fights, including regional victories and a trip to the national finals.

Stylistically, Paul has the power advantage whereas Fury will bring a speed edge. Paul is also bigger – he's never been lighter than 186.5 pounds weighing in for a fit, often around 190 – whereas Fury's heavier than 184 pounds just one time.

Then again, Fury's been labeled a light heavyweight (175-pound limit, where he had been headed for given that he'd been sub-180 pounds in each of his last two fights).

Paul vs. Fury Pick

(Editor's note: Some U.S. sportsbooks have pulled Paul vs. Fury betting markets in certain states, including Virginia. According to DraftKings, for example, betting on Paul-Fury is now available only in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, MD, OR and WY).

Paul's been the favorite leading up to fight night.

At FanDuel on Saturday, Paul's -138 straight up, +220 on points and +280 to win by knockout. Fury's a +108 underdog, +230 by KO, and +480 on points.

I'd like to think I'm a boxing purist, and I'm going to piss off many of my fellow boxing purists, but if we're being real with ourselves, Paul is more likely to win this fight. My bet is Paul KOs Fury, which as of this writing, is +280 on FanDuel.

Pick: Jake Paul KO/TKO (+280)

Bet Paul via KO Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!

If Fury is going to win, he needs to use his four-inch reach advantage and jab his way to make this a methodical breakdown of the YouTuber.

But I feel like Paul will clip him with his right hand at some point because Fury will want to fight overemotionally in spurts, and that's how you make mistakes and get caught.

(If you'd ask me about the outcome I'd prefer, we could talk about that elsewhere…)

For the nerds and or casuals who want a technically more advanced fight to watch: This Saturday on Showtime, you have Puerto Rican super lightweight Subriel Matias (18-1, 18 KOs) taking on Jeremias Ponce (30-0, 20 KOs) for the vacant IBF Super Lightweight Title.

My favorite bet on the board is Matias by knockout, which I jumped on at -160 on FanDuel.

Pick: Subriel Matias KO/TKO (-160)

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This may get closer to -200 before the fight begins, so don't wait much longer because that feels like a gimme.

I even took a shot at Matias by KO in rounds 1-6 at +210, and if you think it'll go longer, you can get Matias in rounds 7-12 around +180.

Enjoy the fights, and don't go broke!