Garcia vs. Fortuna Odds
Ryan Garcia (22-0, 18 KO) is one of the most polarizing fighters in boxing. Some love him, others have dismissed him as an "Instagram fighter" and not a real boxer. Garcia will get the chance to prove his detractors wrong when he steps into the ring to face Javier Fortuna (37-3-1, 26 KO) Saturday night in Los Angeles.
Sportsbooks have the odds on this fight tilted heavily in Garcia's favor. His -1200 moneyline odds translate to an 88% implied probability, and his odds to win by knockout sit at -225 at the time of writing. Should Garcia be this much of a favorite against his toughest competition to date?
Let's take a look at both fighters to see where the value lies.
Is Garcia Ready for Top Competition?
It's hard to believe Garcia is just 23 years old considering how long he's been on the radar of boxing fans. In a sport where promotion can be the most difficult part of a fighter's job, Garcia has that area of his career on lock.
However, his resume doesn't match the enormous following he's amassed over the years, which is part of the reason why fighters like Gervonta Davis – the man Garcia wants next if he gets the win Saturday – have downplayed his career so openly.
Garcia's past four fights have been the real proving ground for him after building up his record, and the results have been a mixed bag. In 2019 and 2020, he showed that he can end fights against real competition in a flash with a pair of first-round knockouts against Romero Duno and Francisco Fonseca. The latter KO was impressive considering he did almost all of his damage with his left hand.
But in 2021, against Luke Campbell, Garcia got his first taste of adversity in the ring. In the second round, the southpaw dropped Garcia for the first time in his career. Garcia came back to win in the seventh round, but the knockdown exposed his inexperience. For all of his dazzling hand speed and power, Garcia's footwork isn't great and he left himself open in the exchange.
In his most recent fight, against Emmanuel Tagoe, Garcia bulked up and certainly looked more poised, but his movement and posture weren't much better. To be fair, 'King Ry' battered his opponent, sent him to the mat in the second round and nearly did it again in the 10th round. Still, if Garcia is supposed to compete with title holders, that's a fight where you'd want to see him dominate and leave zero doubt.
Fortuna isn't a title holder currently, but he has won and defended a title in his career, which makes this step up for Garcia. Fortuna, who is also a southpaw like Campbell, is at a disadvantage in terms of height (4-inch difference) and age (10-year age gap), so he will need to make this fight scrappy against the taller Garcia.
To avoid being walked down like Tagoe, Fortuna will need to bring the pressure to prevent Garcia from loading up big punches. Fortuna has solid counter-punching ability, but if he spends the whole fight waiting to counter Garcia, he'll take some serious damage.
Garcia's star is ascending and he has some legitimately good, young opponents ahead of him – I expect him to come out and be sharp in the ring. For all of his flaws, he's still very clearly the more talented man. His speed and power are real, he's not a headhunter, and he can mix up his attack between the head and body.
If Garcia can commit to sticking his jab in Fortuna's face and keep him on the outside, it could be a long night. Whether he actually commits to that strategy is a toss-up. If instead Garcia stands around too much and looks to land his powerful left hand, I would expect Fortuna to put pressure on him and make him fight off his back foot.
Garcia vs. Fortuna Pick
Either way, I don't love the -225 odds on Garcia to win by knockout, even though he certainly has the motivation and skill to get a statement win. The odds for the fight to go to a decision (+175 at BetMGM) are tempting, but considering how much of a favorite Garcia is, you'd get a much better payout taking him to win by decision.
Right now, I'm leaning toward the over nine rounds prop, but given Fortuna's reputation as a borderline dirty fighter, I think there's a chance he makes this fight competitive early, which would make this an opportunity to bet Garcia live as well.
Lean: Over 9 Rounds (-120)
