Seniesa Estrada vs. Yokasta Valle Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Seniesa Estrada vs. Yokasta Valle odds on Friday, March 29 – our expert boxing prediction and pick.
This is one of those nights where the wrong fight is the main event.
Friday on ESPN+ (9 p.m. ET), the last bout you'll see is former featherweight and super featherweight champion Oscar Valdez (31-2, 23 KOs), who last lost two of his last three. He looks to rebound against fellow super featherweight contender Liam Wilson (13-2, 7 KOs), who has been knocked out twice in the last three years.
This fight is now for the interim WBO title at 130 pounds, likely upgraded to full champion if current titleholder Emanuel Navarrete remains at lightweight, where he drew in his last effort.
The co-feature is far more interesting.
Seniesa Estrada (25-0, 9 KOs) and Yokasta Valle (30-2, 9 KOs) – in a legitimate grudge match – are unifying all the belts at minimumweight to determine who'll be the undisputed champion at 105 pounds.
So even if it's Friday night's co-main event, I'm letting y'all know that I will spend more time previewing that fight because it's closer, has more stakes, has all the titles attached, and is much closer on all betting markets than the main event.
Let's proceed with my Estrada vs. Valle pick and prediction.
Estrada vs. Valle Breakdown & Analysis
Estrada is the slight favorite, and she should be. "Superbad" has the glossier resume, the better promotional backing, the familiarity with the network, and is the clear A-side from a marketing standpoint.
Estrada is 5-foot-2 with a 63-inch reach and is really offense, offense, offense. She's a better boxer than she's shown in her last couple of fights in which, despite winning wide unanimous decisions, she got tagged a lot – her last fight especially.
In a 10-round, 20-minute bout against Leonela Yudica this past July, Estrada outlanded her only 161-144 despite throwing 549 to 506 punches. Both fighters were just short of landing 30% of their punches, and as close as the bout appeared – many online suggesting a draw or even an Estrada loss – the cards, predictably, read 97-93 all three times.
Valle is 5-foot-4 with a 63-inch reach and says she's been calling for this fight for years. So did Estrada, so somebody's lying somewhere.
In any event, Valle is a legit star in her native Costa Rica, selling out arenas for her fights consistently. The Golden Boy-backed boxer is leaving the comfort of DAZN and fighting on ESPN+ with Oscar De La Hoya's blessing. Ironically, Estrada previously fought for Golden Boy before jumping to Top Rank.
Speaking of promotions, Estrada pointed out that this is apparently Valle's last fight on her current Golden Boy deal (we'll come back to that).
Valle isn't afraid to exchange but may be slightly more economical than Estrada, who'll look to pressure the fellow unified champ. Valle arrives having won 17 straight fights after losing two straight between December 2017 and June 2018, the last being to Tina Rupperecht, whom Estrada shut out last March. However, that bout took place in Germany, where Rupperecht hails, and the cards (97-94 x2, 98-95) were favorable.
Valle has improved since, not only becoming a champion and star in her native land, but also quality enough to win on the road previously.
Valle outpointed Spanish-born Joana Pastrana in Spain in August 2019 to win her first minimumweight title by split decision (97-93 x2, 94-96), which as many other split decisions for the road victor, should've been unainmous.
It wasn't until 2022 that Valle started knocking off legitimate competition, though, including undefeateds Thi Thu Nhi Nguyen, against whom she won her second minimumweight title, and Evelin Bermudez, taking two light flyweight titles from the champ by decision.
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Valdez vs. Wilson Breakdown & Analysis
Valdez has two losses but has lost only to the arguable best in his class each time. The first was against Shakur Stevenson in April 2022 by unanimous decision, in which he was dropped once, and the latter was his latest showing, a decision loss to the aforementioned Navarrete in August.
Both were very wide on the cards.
Valdez presents at 5-foot-6 with a 66-inch reach, and at 33 years old, he badly needs this victory to remain at championship level.
Wilson, at 28, could hardly afford a third loss at this point, too. Navarrete is the high-profile common opponent here. Wilson fought him in February, right before Valdez did, and actually welcomed Navarrete to super featherweight, as the bout was for the vacant 130-pound title. Navarrete, a heavy favorite and then a featherweight champion, was actually dropped in Round 4 before stopping Wilson in Round 9.
It was a typical sloppy yet explosive Navarrete performance, so I wouldn't call this an indicator for Valdez's performance. He's more disciplined; he just has a lower ceiling than Navarrete.
Wilson has a previous upset KO loss on his resume. Joe Noynay stopped him in Round 5 of a July 2021 bout, but Wilson avenged it eight months later with a second-round knockout to capture a regional WBO title.
Wilson is 5-foot-9 with a 70-inch reach, and it's worth noting because both of Valdez's losses were to fighters with size advantages over the Mexican standout.
Expect Valdez to try to pressure Wilson on the inside. He's an expert body puncher and is creative at finding angles to navigate distance and pressure his way to success against bigger opponents.
Wilson will do his best to keep Valdez at a distance, but his chin needs to hold up for all 12 if he's going to do that. While Navarrete seemingly put it all together to overwhelm Valdez, he's less disciplined, so Valdez may not replicate the same defensive oversights and offensive mistakes that Navarrete presented against Wilson.
Estrada vs. Valle Prediction & Pick
It'll be stunning to me if Valdez loses, though I'm surprised at this line, in particular. Valdez is +110 to win by decision and +220 to win by KO/TKO on FanDuel.
Valdez hasn't gotten a knockout in four fights, fair, but Wilson has been down five times in his career and stopped twice. This presents to be an explosive Valdez showing if he still has any of his best left.
I think Valdez stops Wilson. We'll take Wilson by KO, which is +220 at the time of this writing. However, early bettors caught a better price earlier in the week before sharps started pushing the number down.
For Estrada vs. Valle, I've long thought Valle could win this fight, but I lean on one of my boxing rules of betting: Don't bet on an underdog who can't finish an opponent. And in women's boxing, it's especially hard because title fights are 10, two-minute rounds instead of 12, three-minute rounds. That's a 20-minute vs. 36-minute length difference.
If title fights for women were commonly 12x3, we'd get many more knockouts than we do, so stoppages are harder to come by not because of lack of power, but because of outdated regulations.
That said, I think Valle is in a position in which she has to definitively win seven to eight rounds to get a draw, and dominate much of the fight to actually get the victory. She's the B-side in the last fight of her deal, has less name recognition, and this will be only her fourth fight in the U.S.
She's good enough to win, absolutely, but I wouldn't bet it because I'd think even another subpar Estrada performance gets her the victory if it's close. This feels like a fight that's close, but the cards favor Estrada because boxing is boxing.
Taking nothing away from Estrada, who is great – and if this were in Costa Rica, I'd say much of the same in reverse – but betting on this sport doesn't mean only betting on what you see in the ring. Remember that.
I'm taking Estrada by decision, which Betway and Hard Rock have at -120 (or -135 at FanDuel). I strongly think this goes to decision, and I think the judges will reward a busier Estrada, for whom the stage is set.
Enjoy the fights, and don't go broke.
The Picks: Seniesa Estrada by Decision (-120 at Betway or Hard Rock) | Oscar Valdez by KO/TKO (+220 at FanDuel)
