Teofimo Lopez vs. Jamaine Ortiz Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Teofimo Lopez vs. Jamaine Ortiz on Thursday, Feb. 8 – our expert boxing prediction and pick.
In boxing's first high-profile bout of 2024, Teofimo Lopez returns to star in another ESPN and ESPN+ main event (8 p.m. ET main card) tonight.
The colorful and controversial Lopez (19-1, 13 KOs) will be defending his WBO super lightweight championship against former lightweight world challenger Jamaine Ortiz (17-1-1, 8 KOs) in this midweek main event.
This rare major midweek main event serves as a bit of a lead-in to Super Bowl LVIII festivities. ESPN viewers can tune in at 8:30 p.m. ET for the main card with walkouts for the Lopez vs. Ortiz headliner expected at approximately 11 p.m. ET.
Lopez and Ortiz have common enemies, most notably Vasiliy Lomachenko. Lopez outpointed the likely future hall of famer in 2020 to unify three of the four major world titles in the lightweight division. The final tallies were 119-109, 117-111 and 116-112, unanimously, in favor of Lopez.
Ortiz fought Lomachenko two years later and lost a narrow decision (117-111, 116-112, 115-113) in Lomachenko's favor, though it felt like Ortiz had a case for a draw.
Let's preview Lopez vs. Ortiz, which is closer than it appears on paper.
Lopez vs. Ortiz Analysis
Lopez is 3-0 with one knockout since venturing into 140 pounds, but the KO was over Pedro Campa, who had been previously stopped by an 11-8 journeyman.
Lopez hasn't been a knockout artist in this weight class, but he's been very good 67% of the time we've seen him. Last June, he outpointed former undisputed champion Josh Taylor in a performance-of-the-year contender, a wide unanimous-decision victory in New York City.
But before that, in December 2022, he narrowly squeaked by Sandor Martin in a controversial split decision that led to questions about his quality, especially since that near-loss was 13 months and just two fights removed from a shocking decision defeat to George Kambosos.
I maintain that Lopez fought a stupid-ass fight and was overly emotional within the 12 rounds, which totally disrupted what should've been a win going away.
But if we're judging Lopez off his last performance, which we probably should, Lopez is the best in the world at 140 pounds, save for maybe only Devin Haney.
Ortiz is most known for the aforementioned Lomachenko loss but most recently beat Antonio Moran in his first bout at super lightweight since 2019.
Ortiz also has credible decision wins over former super featherweight world champion Jamel Herring and former rising prospect Nahir Albright.
Ortiz, notably, is probably in his more natural weight class, having been scheduled to compete at lightweight in June on the Lopez-Taylor card but failed to make weight due to a back injury suffered in camp. The extra five pounds means making the weight should be a smoother process.
Lopez vs. Ortiz Breakdown
Ortiz is very skilled but not to the level of peak Lopez. However, I think placing him on the tier of Martin is more than fair. I also think Ortiz is good enough to beat Kambosos right now.
Ortiz doesn't have the power to keep Lopez off him, but both guys prefer to fight from a distance and have similar frames to box effectively, and this actually shapes up to be more of a chess match than you'd expect.
Lopez could box any way possible, and he remains one of the more explosive athletes in the sport. But he hasn't won by knockout against at least a true A or B-level fighter since his breakout second-round stoppage over Richard Commey in late 2019 to win his first world title.
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Both fighters are listed at 5-foot-8, and Ortiz has a half-inch reach advantage, 69 to 68.5. In his career bouts at super lightweight, Lopez is 5-0 with two KOs and 3-0 on his current streak, as outlined earlier, while Ortiz actually has more experience at the 140-pound limit.
Ortiz is 7-0 with three KOs at this weight, including in his last bout.
I think this shapes to be a beautiful boxing match at its best, but it depends on which Lopez we actually get, and if Ortiz is able to contend at 140 pounds despite his lack of pop.
Lopez vs. Ortiz Pick
My gut bet was Lopez by decision upon announcement, and that's where I've stood.
Lopez, the one we saw in June, could beat anyone in this weight class, maybe even Haney. The Lopez we saw in June outboxes Ortiz in a competitive fight that he pulls away from late, perhaps in that 116-112 to 117-111 range. And the Lopez we saw in June is worth backing at -118 to win by decision, which is available on FanDuel (with many other shops offering a similar -120).
If Ortiz wins, it'll be a decision in which Lopez fights stupidly as he did against Kambosos. But even so, it'll be close because Lopez is the promotional A side, so for Ortiz to get a fair shake, he might need to definitively win eight or nine rounds to even get a draw, which matters when betting.
Ultimately, I think Lopez wins anyway. His last performance showed he's still pound for pound good when he's on, and while Ortiz was dropped by Joseph Adorno twice years ago, I don't think this will be a finish.
With that said, I'd also consider a small play on Ortiz to get knocked down at +134 on FanDuel.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.
The Pick: Teofimo Lopez by Points or Decision (-118 at FanDuel)
