Lopez vs. Campa Odds
It’s been a little more than eight months since Teofimo Lopez suffered his first professional defeat, which came at the hands of George Kambosos. And now Lopez is looking to start fresh at 140 pounds.
There are some reasons to think this might be a good idea – vacant titles to contend for would be a major one – but the key when starting over in a new weight class is to begin with a bang, which is where Pedro Campa comes in.
Their fight on Saturday (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) in Las Vegas is clearly the kind that’s intended to get Lopez (16-1, 12 KOs) some work in his new weight class, but also a win in which "The Takeover" can look good and get a finish.
Campa (34-1-1, 23 KOs) has a strong enough record on paper, but this is his first fight outside of Mexico. And with Campa a +1300 underdog, oddsmakers don’t like his chances to play spoiler.
A win over Lopez would be the kind of huge upset that immediately puts Campa on the map. The flip side of that is that for Lopez, who's a -3000 favorite (96.7% implied win proabability), a loss would be a disaster. Even letting Campa make it to the scorecards would be a bad look and a mild surprise, with a -525 line (84%) on the fight ending inside the distance.
Lopez Must Counter Campa's Aggression, Power
At 135 pounds, Lopez brought a lot of power to bear. It’s reasonable to question whether he’ll retain that as a major asset now that he’s moving up in weight, but the move seems well-timed for a fighter entering his mid-20s, when putting on mass comes more naturally.
The choice of Campa as an opponent also seems engineered to give him the best chance to put his offense on display. Campa will likely move forward and throw, but he shouldn’t be too difficult for Lopez to counter, and he doesn’t seem to be the kind of fighter Lopez will have to go searching for. Lopez should get plenty of opportunities to counter, which suits his style.
In terms of overall skill and big-fight experience, there’s really no comparison between the two. This is a massive jump up for Campa. For Lopez, the key is taking his time without trying to rush the finish, while also respecting Campa enough to keep from giving him any unnecessary openings to score the one perfect shot that might make him a household name overnight.
The problem for Campa is that Lopez has shown himself to be durable and disciplined in the past. In his fight with Vasiliy Lomachenko he proved that he could stick to a game plan when he had to, but also crank up the volume in the later stages to help seal the deal. The 50 punches Lopez landed in the final round of that fight were the most any opponent had ever landed on Lomachenko in a single round, and Lopez managed it without having to expose himself too much.
The real question here is whether Lopez is taking Campa too lightly, perhaps regarding this fight (just as oddsmakers do) as an easy welcome to the division to help him repair his confidence after the loss to Kambosos.
Lopez vs. Campa Pick
In any universe where Lopez took his preparations seriously and doesn’t do anything dumb to give the fight away, this should be his fight every single time. As tantalizing as that Campa underdog line may be, it’s just so hard to talk myself into believing that he pulls off the upset here.
The question then becomes, how best to capitalize on Lopez’s overwhelming probability of success?
The safe play is to take Lopez by KO/TKO. He’s definitely going to want to finish this fight to announce his presence in the new division, and he shouldn’t have too much trouble accomplishing that. But to find a halfway decent line, you’re probably better off trying to pick the round. I don’t see him rushing this, both because he’d probably like to get a little work and he doesn’t want to run into anything big from Campa early on, when he’s fresh and dangerous.
For that reason, the -135 line on the fight going over 4.5 rounds is a decent choice at DraftKings. You might also consider spreading out some small action on Lopez to win in Round 4 at +550, and Lopez in Round 5 at +600. If you want to know your money is in the safest possible place, however, I still like Lopez to finish the fight by KO/TKO, and for that DraftKings has an attractive line at -330.
Lean: Teofimo Lopez via KO/TKO (-330 at DraftKings)
