Terence Crawford vs. David Avanesyan Odds
Yes, we wanted this to be Terence “Bud” Crawford (38-0, 29 KO’s) vs. Errol Spence instead.
But boxing is boxing, and with that arrives fights not being made in person, and only on Twitter, as promoter Lou DiBella pointed out when Crawford vs. Spence fell apart in October.
So Crawford, no longer with Top Rank and therefore not competing on ESPN, will headline a card on a network called BLK Prime, for allegedly the greatest purse in his career, on a slate that will also feature Cris Cyborg (yes, that one) in her debut boxing match.
It will be Crawford’s first fight since stopping and retiring Shawn Porter in November 2021, and he’ll be defending his WBO welterweight world title for the sixth time.
Fight Analysis
I haven’t even mentioned Crawford's opponent until now, and as much as I think he’ll get his butt kicked, David Avanesyan (29-3-1, 17 KOs) is a quality boxer – he’s just not near the level of Crawford, who is at least in the discussion for pound-for-pound No. 1 in the sport.
But Avanesyan is the reigning European welterweight champion, who has gone 6-0, all wins by knockout, since and including winning that title on March 30, 2019.
The thing is, he had lost to Egidijus “Mean Machine” Kavaliauskas 13 months before that via sixth-round TKO, and Kavaliauskas is most famous for being knocked out by whom? You guessed it: Bud Crawford, which happened in December 2019.
Avanesyan’s other signature loss? To Lamont Peterson in February 2017, which was the last time he fought for a welterweight title, losing a close unanimous decision by two scores of 116-112, and a 115-113. His best wins? A decision over then 44-year-old Shane Mosley nine months earlier, and perhaps his two knockout victories over Spanish-born Kerman Lejarraga, whom Avanesyan took the European Title off of initially and then slaughtered in a rematch in one round.
Stylistically, we’re expecting Crawford to do what he does: Start slow and download Avanesyan’s information – a saying that means studying your opponent in the feeling-out rounds before picking them apart as the bout progresses.
Crawford’s been on an even more impressive stoppage tear, having knocked out each of his last nine opponents. That coincides with his true rise to stardom, which arrived after beating Viktor Postol and unifying the WBO and WBC world super lightweight titles in July 2016.
Now, the reason y’all are here…
Crawford vs. Avanesyan Pick(s)
As expected, the odds for this fight are wide, and even if you think there's value in the Crawford moneyline, you're going to risk a lot to win a little. Luckily for you, there are other options!
Crawford has ranged between -1300 and -2000 – and even a ML three-way won’t bring you into the hundreds. Crawford by knockout is the far-and-away favorite. Crawford's -600 to win by stoppage on FanDuel and -750 on DraftKings as of this writing. That could be a reliable parlay leg to have with other fights/sporting events going on this weekend.
For more value, as we did with Tyson Fury, let’s go to group round betting.
Avanesyan’s only knockout loss was in Round 6. Crawford isn’t typically a fast starter and will probably demonstrate more patience, given that we haven’t seen him in about 13 months. His nine consecutive knockouts over the last six years, in order, occurred in the following rounds: 8, 10, 3, 9, 12, 6, 9, 4 and 10.
You have 6-of-9 coming in Round 8 or later and only two preceding Round 5, which includes an older Kell Brook, as well Julius Indongo, who we’ve since learned is susceptible to KOs, and is Crawford's only one-shot knockout of these nine stoppages.
Terence Crawford to win in Rounds 7-12 is my favorite bet on the board. At FanDuel, it’s +110 as of this writing, and on DraftKings, it’s -110. If you’d like to narrow it down for more juice, you’ll get slightly better odds on Group Rounds for Crawford to finish Avanesyan between 5-8 or 9-12 (+145 and +280 on FanDuel, respectively), and Fight to be Won in Rounds 7-9 or 10-12 (+200 and +250 on DraftKings).
And if you want to take a 1/12 shot on a single round – and generally I don’t – but personally, Round 7, 8 or 9 seems like decent longshots. They all range between +700 to +800 on DraftKings, and +800 to +1000 on FanDuel.
Ultimately, your best plays here are Crawford to win in Rounds 7-12 and/or Crawford by KO as a parlay leg. But there are good ones all over the board, and just because the fight is expected to be one-sided doesn’t mean you can’t try to make money.
Good luck, and bet responsibly.
Pick: Crawford To Win in Rounds 7-12 (+110) |
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