Fury vs. Wilder Odds
It's the trilogy fight that we've been waiting almost two years for: Fury vs. Wilder III.
The reigning WBC and lineal champion Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KO) has a chance to further his legend as the baddest man on the planet with a win, while Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KO) is looking to avenge a brutal TKO loss that has plagued him since February 2020.
Let's dig right in and break down the matchup.
Fury-Wilder Preview
Boxing is a sport that is often discussed for its history just as much as its present. Iconic fights, memorable rivalries and epic tales of victory or defeat get passed down over decades, creating a rich history for fans to draw from when a familiar situation presents itself.
Within that rich history, trilogy fights represent a holy grail in the sport — especially in the heavyweight division — and the best of them give us unforgettable names (The Fight of the Century, The Thrilla in Manilla) and moments (Fan Man).
This trilogy has those moments, too. Fury's eyes popping wide open as he heard the count in their first meeting has become a meme, but it also proved that he's as tough as they come.
Unfortunately, Wilder's loss and subsequent 19-month tirade on how he was cheated — bashing his former trainer, the referees, Fury's gloves, his pre-fight outfit and everything but his own approach — has taken some of the spotlight away from how good both of these fighters are and how rare it is to get two high-level heavyweights in the ring in this era of boxing.
In the first fight of this series, which seems like ages ago, Wilder was the more aggressive fighter and he spent the bulk of the fight chasing Fury around the ring. He actually out-threw Fury 430 to 327, but landed just 16% of his total punches and 17% of his power shots. Still, Wilder was able to land two knockdowns in a classic fight that ended in a draw.
In fight No. 2, Fury was the clear aggressor between the two and was able to neutralize Wilder's infamous right hand by crowding the former champ and backing him up with his powerful jab. Fury's size became a big issue for Wilder even though both men weighed more than they did in the first bout.
Fury's overall skill throwing the jab made it nearly impossible for Wilder to land a clean power punch with his right hand.
And Wilder hasn't had much else in his bag throughout most of his career when the right hand isn't landing. So what will be different about this fight?
Wilder has had nearly two years to watch film and train in the areas in which he has been deficient throughout his career. Despite all the excuses, he knows full well that Fury won because of his versatility. Fury took Wilder's best shot in 2018, managed to get up from it, then came back and perplexed Wilder for seven rounds in the rematch.
Wilder has since been working on his movement and punching angles with new trainer (and former opponent) Malik Scott. It's not impossible for a fighter to add to their repertoire at any stage of their career, but in a high-stakes title fight against one of the best fighters in the world with adrenaline and emotion running through his veins, Wilder will have to apply those skills he's been working on since February 2020.
If Wilder can throw a legitimate jab to keep Fury going backwards and instead of backing up himself and waiting for a single knockout punch, he stands a much better chance.
Whether he does that or not remains to be seen.
Fury vs. Wilder Pick
This fight truly comes down to which version of Wilder shows up. The 'Gypsy King' is a born fighter, he does this type of thing in his sleep and he's had a much longer layoff than the 19 months between fights No. 2 and No.3. I expect him to dance and taunt Wilder while also keeping the pressure on the former champ.
I don't love that Wilder came into this fight even heavier than he was in the second fight — he weighed in at 238 pounds, which is the most he's weighed as a pro — but he also got pushed around a ton by Fury. Part of that was just Wilder's approach, but I think there was a concerted effort on his part to be as strong as possible coming in.
Fury's moneyline odds (-280) suggest that he wins this fight 70% of time with Wilder having about a 30% chance. That feels a little too shaded in Fury's direction, in my opinion, considering the first fight was a draw. Wilder's odds have come down a bit, he was +245 back in July and is +230 on fight day. I'm not betting either man though.
I think the value is on total here, specifically the over 8.5 rounds prop at Caesars. I think both men want a knockout, and these two massive human beings will begin to wear down before this fight goes to a decision.
However, I think Wilder's eardrum being busted in the rematch is being overlooked. He doesn't need anymore excuses for why he didn't come with a better game plan, but his equilibrium was thrown off completely after that point in the fight and he did not look like the 'Bronze Bomber' we've seen in prior years. Still, Wilder made it to Round 7.
I expect Wilder to change things up here and force Fury to respect what he can do instead of wait around for the right shot. I'll bet this fight to go over 8.5 rounds at +110 but will also look to bet it live.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (+110)
