Tyson Fury vs. Derek Chisora Odds, Pick, Boxing Prediction: Any Value Despite -3500 Favorite? (Saturday, December 3)

Tyson Fury vs. Derek Chisora Odds

Don’t worry; I also rolled my eyes when this fight was announced.

Just because Tyson Fury (32-0-1, 23 KOs) and Derek Chisora (33-12, 23 KOs) are embarking on a trilogy on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) that nobody asked for — perhaps not even Chisora himself — it doesn’t mean you can’t make money betting on it.

But if you’re wondering how we got here, you’re not alone.

WBC world heavyweight champion Fury had been calling out Anthony Joshua. Joshua had been coming off a second consecutive loss to unified world champion Oleksandr Usyk. Fury says he intended to defend his WBC crown at Wembley Stadium in an All-British battle. And when Joshua allegedly didn’t meet the contractual terms in time for Fury’s liking, the champ sought out a new challenge and found one in Chisora, who's the WBC's No. 14-ranked contender.

Fight Analysis

As previously alluded to, this is actually the third time Fury and Chisora are doing this.

The first was on July 23, 2011, for Chisora’s prestigious British and Commonwealth heavyweight titles. Both fighters entered 14-0, and Fury walked out with a wide unanimous decision victory.

Even with the loss, Chisora was first to a title shot in 2012, and the two rematched in 2014, with Chisora defending his European title — and with the British title (then vacant) still on the line — and Fury dominated, forcing Chisora to retire on his stool after Round 10.

This current version should be more lopsided than the previous two, but in boxing, (things) happen.

Chisora is entering this bout with one win in his last four fights – a nail-biting, split-decision victory over former world title challenger Kubrat Pulev in July. Now, he deserved to win, but again, it’s his only victory in four fights. The most recent before that was in October 2019 – before COVID.

As for Fury, he’s coming off an April dismantling of heavyweight contender Dillian Whyte, whom he knocked out in Round 6. It’s Fury’s only fight since the famous trilogy of bouts with former longtime WBC champion Deontay Wilder, whom he defeated in October 2021 and February 2020 by knockout.

There is absolutely no reason for this to be competitive unless Fury gets bored, fights far below his level, or gets caught by Chisora’s power, which could always happen in the heavyweight division, I suppose. Still, the thought of a 6-foot-9 defensive genius with the footwork of a welterweight going down to a career European championship-level fighter is maddening, especially considering how Fury handled Wilder, and previously, Wladimir Klitschko.

Fury and his 85-inch reach should outbox Chisora en route to a relatively easy stoppage, using his height, range, movement and overall ring generalship. However, he’s already promising to stand and bang with the much shorter Chisora.

Given that Chisora’s about 6-foot-2 with a 74-inch reach, a phonebooth fight is his best and only chance at recording an upset that would rival some of the biggest we’ve seen in heavyweight boxing.

It would be brazenly courageous yet tactically counterproductive for Fury to employ such a strategy, but even so, he could still win that way.

Fury vs. Chisora Pick

I mean, just look at the moneyline, man.

You’re not asking yourself whether or not Fury will win this; you’re asking how.

But it’s worth considering even as oddsmakers believe Fury will knock Chisora out: Chisora may have 12 losses, but only three are stoppages – with one coming to Fury eight years ago, and the most recent having been in 2018 against the aforementioned Whyte. (If you’re wondering about the third stoppage, it was against David Haye in 2012.)

There’s a world where Fury infuriatingly drags Chisora to distance as if to tell us, “See? I told you he was a tougher challenge than you thought.” If you’re so inclined, the value is better than +300 depending on your sportsbook of choice.

The best and most realistic bet on the board, though, is Fury by KO. The value isn’t great unless you’re willing to throw down a decent amount of paper.

Some options for this route:

• Pair Fury by KO with other bets in a parlay. The rest of the MMA Prop Squad and I are back with some longshots this weekend, and we'll also have UFC Best Bets. And there's a collection of NBA, NFL, college football, World Cup and other competitions to parlay too.
• Also, look at round and group round betting. Single rounds are tougher, which is why you’ll find some rounds as high as +3300 for Fury to win. I’d recommend group round betting to increase your chances of winning at the expense of a lesser number. For example, Fury to win in Rounds 7-12 at +260 on FanDuel is a nice shot to take, as is Fury to win in, say, rounds 4-6 or 7-9. You’ll find plus odds that way and with boxing specials.
• And there are some other boxing options too (see below).

Leans: Fury by KO (-340 at FanDuel) as a parlay leg | Fury wins in Round 7-12 (+260 at FanDuel)

Boxing Quick Picks

Fury vs. Chisora is the most noteworthy fight of the night, but there are two other big ones to keep up with.

Daniel Dubois vs. Kevin Lerena

On the same card, WBA world heavyweight champion Daniel Dubois (18-1, 17 KOs) is defending his crown vs. Kevin Lerena (28-1, 14 KOs). Dubois is the heavy favorite (-1600 at FanDuel) to retain and knockout underdog Lerena (+850), who hasn’t been stopped in his career.

Dubois by KO will be hovering around -400, so paired with Fury by KO could put you around -160 as of this writing.

Dubois’ loss, however, came by KO vs. Joe Joyce on Nov. 28, 2020. Lerena isn’t a power puncher but is on a 17-fight winning streak, with five of his last seven wins coming by KO. A decision will be hard to come by in Dubois’ backyard, but Lerena has better upset potential than Chisora.

Roman Gonzalez vs. Juan Francisco Estrada

Elsewhere, Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez (51-3, 41 KOs) will face Juan Francisco Estrada (43-4, 28 KOs) in a rubber bout for the vacant WBC super flyweight world title.

Gonzalez won a decision in their first encounter 10 years ago, and Estrada earned a split decision in the rematch in March 2021. This is expected to provide the best in-ring action of the night, and "Chocolatito" enters as the slight favorite, generally in the -180 to -220 range, with Estrada around +170.

Estrada is absolutely a live dog, and he is on a seven-fight winning streak that included several successful super flyweight title defenses, but Gonzalez moneyline is the smart play. And because Estrada’s never been knocked out, you can wager a decision for better juice.

In fact, a Fury by KO/Dubois by KO/Gonzalez by decision parlay will get you better than +200 odds on FanDuel or DraftKings.