The most anticipated rematch in all of boxing takes place Saturday with Oleksandr Usyk (22-0, 14 KOs) defending his WBO, WBA, and WBC World Heavyweight Titles against Tyson Fury (34-1-1, 24 KOs).
It's notable not just because they're the two best heavyweights in the world, but because these dudes might legitimately be the best heavyweights boxing has had since Wladimir Klitchscko's run of dominance ended in 2015.
It's a rematch of their May 2024 bout, which Usyk won via split decision after taking the fight over by stagging Fury with an overhand left that led to a flurry and a scored knockdown.
Usyk is the former Undisputed Heavyweight and Cruiserweight world champion, who is no longer Undisputed because he vacated the IBF title in chasing the Fury rematch.
Regardless, we're here, and while these guys respect each other, they know they can't go back after a loss — Fury especially — so this could be it.
Both are closer to 40 than 30, and both step into Saturday's ring on boxing's pound-for-pound list, making for the most compelling heavyweight title rematch since Lennox Lewis vs. Evander Holyfield 2 … in 1999.
Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk Preview
Same deal as Round 1. Fury will have the physical advantages at 6-foot-9 with an 85-inch reach and likely noteworthy weight advantage. Usyk is 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach, and the southpaw was outweighed by nearly 40 pounds (262 to 223.5) in their last encounter.
Fury insists he's as focused as ever, going as far as claiming he hasn't talked to his wife for three months while training to face Usyk again. (A dream for some men, according to some comment sections.) Fury didn't take the loss well either and was reportedly thrown out of a pub for being drunker than Arthur Morgan and Lenny in a saloon in Red Dead Redemption 2.
The stakes are the stakes. If Usyk wins, it'll be very difficult for Fury to get another world heavyweight title shot after losing to Usyk twice, although Daniel Dubois is defending his IBF title against Joseph Parker in February, and Fury would be favored against either man.
It would also depend on how Fury loses. A win for him just forces the need for a trilogy fight, which would almost definitely take place next year.
In the ring, the paths to victory haven't changed.
I had Fury winning the bout through seven rounds before Usyk took it over, where he arguably swept the final five. I scored it 114-113 Usyk live and have since adjusted to a 115-112 score. Ultimately, to me, there's no debate that Usyk was the deserved winner.
Fury found success when fighting off an active jab, targeting Usyk's body, and tagging him with uppercuts when pressured on the inside, as I outlined in a film preview of the bout on YouTube.
For Usyk, his success was making Fury work, forcing his way into fighting on the inside, catching the former champion with lead right and or left hooks, and negating the effect of Fury's jab with parrying and head movement.
Fury started off well — especially between Rounds 4-7 — but Usyk ended stronger in the championship rounds, and that was ultimately the difference.
Fury vs. Usyk Pick, Prediction
My rule when a fight is projected this closely is always a sprinkle the draw. It's at +1800 on FanDuel as of Thursday morning. I put something very small on it, but it's in play given the split last time and how close this could be again.
On merit, Usyk is the deserved slight favorite. Usyk by decision is +187 on bet365, that's my lean but it's only a lean and will be, at best, a lean because of two things. One — the fight is incredibly difficult to objectively assess. And two — boxing is boxing. Usyk could win in the ring and get robbed on the cards. Some would say he nearly did the first time.
We have to remember how much money there is in a trilogy, and legitimately, this is an instance where the "tie going to the runner" may benefit the challenger given Fury's skill but also his star power and the business hovering above this bout and its financial ramifications.
I almost think Usyk needs to dominate to get a fair shake. So my preferred plays are the following bets:
- Either by majority decision (+450 on bet365)
- Either by split decision (+900 on bet365)
This is an amazing fight on paper, but not one I have any interest in betting non-long shots. I'll play the draw and the majority decision and split decision in either direction, because I'd rather braced myself for typical boxing shenanigans than outright pick a fair and just winner.
If someone is gonna get robbed, it won't be me.
