Lomachenko vs. Ortiz Odds
Vasiliy Lomachenko (16-2, 11 KOs) comes into Saturday’s fight with Jamaine Ortiz (16-0-1, 8 KOs) as an eye-popping -3000 favorite, which depending on how you view it is either a reflection of Ortiz’s lack of top-flight competition, or perhaps just the due respect for the Ukrainian’s masterful skills.
Still, it can be a tricky thing to be so heavily favored, especially in a fight against an undefeated up-and-comer like Ortiz.
For one thing, such lopsided expectations are hard to surpass and easy to fall short of, which might encourage Lomachenko to take more risks than necessary in search of a stoppage win. For another, there’s always the chance that Lomachenko could underestimate the +1100 underdog Ortiz at his own peril, especially since he already seems to be eyeing a meeting with someone like Devin Haney on the back of an impressive win here.
Then again, Ortiz is likely hoping that an upset victory here would earn him the same reward. And there’s zero chance he’s looking past Lomachenko, the toughest opponent he’s ever faced, in the meantime. Let's take a look at how the two fighters will match up inside the ring.
Loma's Experience Edge May Be Too Much to Overcome
The big problem for anyone fighting Lomachenko is how to deal with his almost magical ability to find and exploit dominant offensive angles. At times it seems as if the man simply materializes next to opponents with a clear, unobstructed view of their jawlines.
The worst thing you can do against him is to get caught standing still or being forced backward in a defensive shell for too much of the fight, because it’s only a matter of time until he finds the holes in your guard and unloads.
The key for Ortiz will be finding a way to force Lomachenko backwards and wear him down with offensive output. That’s a lot easier said than done, and it will depend on Ortiz finding the range with his jab.
If he gets caught reaching from too far out, or if he bites on Lomachenko’s feints and level changes, forget it. He has to slow down the forward movement of Lomachenko one way or another, but he probably can’t rely on power alone to do it.
One variable that’s difficult to predict is just how badly Lomachenko wants a finish in this fight. If he’s trying to make his case for a fight with Haney, a stoppage worthy of the highlight reel does a lot more for him than a win on the scorecards.
However, getting too aggressive too early on might also give Ortiz the kinds of openings he’s unable to create for himself.
Lomachenko vs. Ortiz Pick
In a sane and rational universe, there’s no way Lomachenko should lose this. He’s too much for Ortiz at this point, and the absurd odds reflect that.
The most lucrative line on Lomachenko to win might be the -2000 odds from BetMGM, and it’s still not worth it. The real action is in deciding whether he needs all 12 rounds to get it done, or whether he can stop Ortiz inside the distance.
Personally, I think Ortiz is going to run up against the limits of his experience and abilities here, and I like Lomachenko to finish him late. The -135 line from DraftKings on Lomachenko via KO, TKO, or DQ looks like the safest play to me.
FanDuel also has a +145 line on the fight including over 1.5 knockdowns, and that’s not a bad idea either if you just have to get some underdog odds to feel complete.
The Pick: Lomachenko to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
