Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
Wilder odds: -588
Ortiz odds: +410
Over/Under: 6.5 Rounds (-133/+100)
Time: Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET
TV: PPV
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas
The always exciting "Bronze Bomber" Deontay Wilder returns to Las Vegas for his 10th defense of the WBC heavyweight title in a rematch with Luis "King Kong" Ortiz on Saturday night.
Wilder who has knocked out 40 of his 41 career opponents, including Ortiz, is a heavy favorite to repeat that performance with -300 odds to win by KO/TKO.
Ortiz, whose only career loss came against Wilder, turned 40 this year, but is still very much a threat to put nearly any fighter on the mat with one punch. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has Ortiz listed as +550 to win by KO and as of Friday, no one had taken the bait per John Murray.
Wilder vs. Ortiz II Odds Movement
Wilder opened as the favorite when this fight was announced and his mean odds peaked around -1000 in July (per Proboxingodds.com). Ortiz has since gained some love around the market and his mean odds have settled in the +400 range.
Wilder vs. Ortiz II Picks
Boxing, arguably more than any other sport, is inherently about risk: take a hit to give a hit. Even in the fights where the general public sees one side being wildly overmatched, there is some risk attached.
But in this upcoming fight against Ortiz, the risk seems a bit higher and the reward feels largely like pride.
Outside of his majority draw against Tyson Fury, Wilder’s first match against Ortiz was by far his most difficult. After nearly being dropped in the seventh, Wilder flipped the script and proved he could come from behind against someone with similar finishing power and dropped Ortiz twice in the 10th for a stunning KO win.
So why do it again?
“The first time it was high risk low reward, this time it's a bit different,” he said during his press conference this week. “I'd rather go through situations in the ring than go through my whole career being perfect.”
It’s beyond commendable that an athlete in this sport would continue to face challenges like this at the highest level just to prove a point. However, we’ve already seen one champ lose in dramatic fashion this year and put a potential super fight in jeopardy by doing so and Wilder's potential rematch between with Fury is tentatively slated for February.
All that said, one would expect Wilder to come out and box his way to an easy victory. But anyone who has heard Wilder speak knows he's not a man with modest intentions.
In their first fight, Wilder first dropped Ortiz in Round 5 with two hard right hands. But then he got a bit cocky and started swinging wildly looking for the finish, which is how he got dropped in Round 7. Ortiz weighed in at a slim 236.5 pounds, but his conditioning will be tested.
Wilder to win by KO is such a high price it's not worth taking. While I have little to no faith in Ortiz out-boxing Wilder at 40, it should be noted that Ortiz to win by KO is very tempting. He's not a household name at all, but he is a massive puncher and anything can happen in this sport. Still I like Wilder to repeat his performance from the first scrap and jump at the first opening Ortiz gives him. — Malik Smith
Bets: Wilder KO Round 4-6 (+250) | Under 6.5 (+100)
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The first thing to note about this fight is that Wilder is a wider favorite than he was against Ortiz in their first encounter. Back in March 2018, Wilder was around a -300 favorite (71.8% implied probability) to beat "King Kong." This time around, the odds imply that Wilder beats Ortiz 81.3% of the time.
The jump in odds may startle you at first, considering that Ortiz had Wilder on the ropes in their first fight, but there's no question that since that night in Brooklyn, Wilder has shown some marked improvements, while Ortiz has won three stay-busy fights to keep himself in the conversation at the top of the division.
Ortiz, 40, is undoubtedly one of the best heavyweights in the world and a few years ago was known as the divisional "boogeyman", but it's hard to imagine him putting forth a better effort than the one he gave back in early 2018. And that showing, as impressive as it was, still got him knocked out by Deontay Wilder.
The Cuban is a technical fighter with real power, so he's always dangerous, but I don't think these odds are long enough to interest me in backing the upset.
I won't be laying the juice with Wilder, either. Ortiz gave Wilder all he could handle in their first meeting and this is heavyweight boxing, so laying this price is too risky, even though the American is much more likely to win.
Where I am looking, though is for this fight to end in a Wilder knockout in the latter stages.
One of the most impressive parts of Wilder's toolbox is that his power doesn't disappear late into fights. We saw him absorb severe punishment against Ortiz and then stop him in Round 10. We saw him floor Tyson Fury in the 12th Round. Those are two world-class heavyweights that Wilder put down late in the show.
It will take everything Ortiz has in his locker to survive the first nine rounds but he's such a skilled boxer that I think he can weather the storm long enough to get into the championship rounds. And if he does that, I expect him to be wiped out, and likely behind on the cards. Tired fighters make mistakes. Desperate fighters take chances. Against Deontay Wilder that is a recipe for disaster. — Michael Leboff
Bet: Wilder to Win in Rounds 10-12 (+750)
