Zhilei Zhang vs. Joe Joyce 2 Odds, Pick & Prediction: 2 Bets for Heavyweight Rematch in London (September 23)

Zhilei Zhang vs. Joe Joyce Odds

It's rare that we get one of these, so let's cherish it.

This is, in boxing, a true 50-50 fight on the betting scale?

And, on top of that, it's a sleeper championship bout.

WBO interim heavyweight champion Zhilei Zhang (25-1-1, 20 KOs) rematches Joe Joyce (15-1, 14 KOs) at Wembley Arena this Saturday on ESPN+ (2:30 p.m. ET main card).

These two heavy hitters, who have a combined 34 knockout victories across their 40 career wins, originally did battle on April 15, when Joyce entered a -1000 favorite, which felt like BS at the time. I even mentioned a Zhang KO was worth a sprinkle.

Zhang dominated and injured Joyce's eye in the process, which led to a stoppage in Round 6. It was a bout in which Joyce seemed behind the entire way.

It's the latest installment of the British Heavyweight Jinx, which everyone except seemingly Tyson Fury has fallen victim to; Lennox Lewis, Anthony Joshua, Frank Bruno, Audley Harrison, David Price, David Haye (a cruiserweight then, but still), among many others, all succumbed to it.

It's the same script: Hyped-up undefeated heavyweight from England is in a fight he should win that should lead to something bigger, only to get derailed by an overlooked challenger. The derailment could be momentary, as it was for Lewis, Bruno and Haye. But it could also shift your entire career entirely as it did for Harrison and Price.

We're still TBD on our homie AJ.

And we're still TBD on Mr. Joyce.

Let's look at Zhang vs. Joyce 2 on Saturday in London.

Zhang vs. Joyce Fight Analysis

I'm gonna be honest, the last fight between these two was a straight ass-whooping.

The southpaw Zhang was laying in straight left hands and looping right hooks from the opening round. How?

Well, Zhang matches Joyce's 6-foot-6 frame and 80-inch reach.

Even though Joyce was perceived as somewhat of an up-and-comer, he turned 38 years old this past Tuesday. He turned pro in 2017 after a widely successful amateur career, including an Olympic silver medal in 2016, gold medals at the 2015 European Games and the 2014 Commonwealth Games, and multiple English national championships all at super heavyweight.

The thing is, he turned pro one month after his 32nd birthday.

Zhang, who turned 40 in May, turned pro at 31 in 2014 after piecing together a similar amateur pedigree. Zhang earned an Olympic silver medal in 2008, won gold at the 2010 Asian Games and 2009 Asian Championships, and, like Joyce, won bronze at the IBA World Championships, all at super heavyweight.

The parallels between the two aging rising stars are all there.

Zhang's only career loss was an oddity. In February 2021, he knocked down Jerry Forrest three times, was deducted a point for holding late, and fought to a draw against the four-loss Forrest.

It was later learned that Zhang had been battling, not just Forrest, but anemia, kidney failure and liver damage ahead of that fight. He returned nine months later.

Zhang also notably fought Filip Hrgovic in August 2022 – the co-feature of the second Oleksandr Usyk vs. Anthony Joshua fight. Zhang lost a unanimous decision, so why did he get a shot at Joyce in his next bout? Because he was flatly robbed against Hrgovic, whom he inexplicably lost via 115-112 (twice) and 114-113 scores on the cards despite what looked like a clear victory.

And then he wrecked Joyce.

Joyce's best win to date? Probably last September when he knocked out Joseph Parker, a former world heavyweight champion, in the 11th round for the then-vacant interim WBO title.

Before that, Joyce had also stopped heavyweight title contender Daniel Dubois in an undefeated vs. undefeated bout in November 2020 for the British, Commonwealth, European, WBC Silver and WBO International heavyweight titles.

(For you casual fans, it just means a bunch of regional and/or national titles that are meant to launch you to contendership. I don't know why there were five for one fight, though those first three are often looped in together for bouts against two rising Brits.)

Both men are strong as hell, have power and precision, can finish you with either hand, have conditioning questions, granite chins, and past health issues that could arise at any time. I'd give Zhang the speed edge, and perhaps the defensive one given how fight one appeared.

Now, it's time to make a pick for Zhang vs. Joyce 2.

Zhang vs. Joyce Bets

Zhang and Joyce have been near 50-50 on the books with the Chinese heavy-hitter jumping ahead as a slight favorite across the board.

I don't think fight No. 2 is as lopsided as fight 1. Joyce is still very good and capable of making adjustments since April to make this more competitive. But Zhang is the worthy favorite because he has more answers, health-permitting.

This isn't the fight to bet a ton of money on, but it should be a fun sweat because of how close it may be. Still, there are enough injury factors to scare me off anything more than a unit, if even that.

I really don't think Joyce will be obliterated the same way the second time around, and the odds are listed in such a fashion that I could double up on Zhang methods of victory and come out a net positive.

I think, as a baseline, the bout goes beyond six rounds. But Joyce's defense was so worrisome that I don't think he'll be able to take Zhang's punishment for all 12 rounds unless a judge allows it.

Joyce has still never been dropped in his career. He was stopped, but his chin kept him afloat; it was his eye that failed him.

I'm making small players on Zhang to win in Rounds 7-12 and to win via decision – which cover me for any Zhang victory in the seventh round and beyond.

The bets: Zhilei Zhang in Round 7-12 (+340 at DraftKings) | Zhang to win by decision (+500 at DraftKings)

Bonus Boxing Bets: McCaskill vs. Ryan & Hitchins vs. Zepeda

There are two other bouts I'll be watching later in the evening over on DAZN (8 p.m. ET).

Jessica McCaskill (12-3, 5 KOs) looks to defend her unified welterweight title against Sandy Ryan (6-1, 2 KOs).

McCaskill (-115) is a very slight favorite, similar odds to Zhang vs. Joyce, and I'm backing her to win on the moneyline at -115 on DraftKings.

McCaskill's just more skilled and has more worrisome power to keep Ryan (-110) off of her. McCaskill is 39 with three losses, but all of them were competitive, including one to undisputed super lightweight queen Chantelle Cameron, as well as another to undisputed lightweight queen Katie Taylor.

Despite giving up three inches in height, McCaskill has a three-inch reach advantage on Saturday – and the better resume.

On the same card, undefeated prospect and soon-to-be contender Richardson Hitchins (16-0, 7 KOs) faces former three-time world title challenger Jose Zepeda (37-3, 28 KOs). Zepeda has lost only in world title fights, and he did so against Regis Prograis in 2022, Jose Ramirez in 2019, and Terry Flanagan in 2015.

Hitchins, at 25, is nine years Zepeda's junior, defending his IBF North American super lightweight title. The vacant WBC Silver and WBO NABO titles will also be at stake and will put the winner in a contender spot ahead of 2024.

Hitchins, at 5-foot-10 with a 74-inch reach, is two inches taller, more than three inches longer, and is the better, more well-rounded boxer right now. The stronger Zepeda will look to force a firefight with the counter-punching Hitchins and use his southpaw looks to penetrate the Brooklynite's fearsome defense. However, I think Hitchins outpoints him.

The bet here, for me, is Hitchins by decision at -150 on FanDuel.

Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!

Bonus bets: Jessica McCaskill (-115 at DraftKings) | Richardson Hitchins via decision (-150 at FanDuel)

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