Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
Bayern Munich Odds | -223 |
Borussia Dortmund Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-112 / -108) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-225 / +162) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Bayern made more headlines than any club in Europe during the international break after the German giant sacked manager Julian Nagelsmann and brought in Thomas Tuchel to replace him. They sit one point behind rival Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga table with nine matches to go in the season, and no match on the entire calendar is more important than Saturday's clash between the Bundesliga's two biggest sides.
Bayern Munich Likely to Use New Approach
There's a major difference between the approaches of Tuchel and Nagelsmann. Nagelsmann is much more willing to take risks in and out of possession. His Bayern teams often were engineered to give the central midfielders a ton of license to get forward and they were able to overwhelm opponents with superior quality and attacking numbers. Bayern were an attacking supernova in 2021-22, despite defensive issues that ultimately cost them in the Champions League.
The attack had regressed a bit this season and a lot of that was the result of downgrading from Robert Lewandowski to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. He's had a great season but is not quite at the level of his predecessor. Tuchel is a manager that prioritizes defensive possession, control and attacking patterns. The question is how long does it really take for Tuchel to implement his ideas, especially considering so much of Bayern's squad goes away on international duty.
Tuchel also needs to refresh the form of Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané, whose struggles had hurt Bayern's ability to separate from inferior opponents. Bayern were unable to break through the consistent press in a loss to Leverkusen.
Bayern should be able create chances against a relatively average Dortmund defense, but this is the same team that struggled to create chances against Stuttgart and Leverkusen in the last month. The same Bayern group that needed 41 minutes to register a shot against Dortmund in the reverse fixture.
Borussia Dortmund Looking For Massive Result
Dortmund don't have the underlying profile of a future Bundesliga champion. There are real defensive holes — Dortmund are seventh in NPxG allowed per match and 10th in shots allowed per 90. Edin Terzic's side has been in elite form of late because of the goal scoring and creation from Julian Brandt, but it's not as if the attack is near the level of Bayern's overall.
They are second in most attacking categories — so they're ahead of Leipzig in that regard — but the defense has conceded at least 1 xG in each of the last seven matches across all competitions.
The Blacks and Yellows are dealing with some injuries at the moment too — Brandt is a question to make the starting lineup, Youssofa Moukoko is out injured and Karim Adeyemi is unlikely to start. Emre Can will return from his suspension and he's a major key in the defensive midfield role at preventing Bayern from overwhelming the midfield exchanges.
As much as the Dortmund defense has struggled of late, the market has overreacted a touch with this total sitting at a flat 3.5.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Pick
When Tuchel came into Chelsea a few years ago, he immediately fixed the defense by focusing on defensive possession and strangling away the ball from the opponent. I expect him to try to do more of this at Bayern, even if it sacrifices some of the attacking production from the front line. Chelsea went on a huge run of unders and the market took some time to adjust.
Dortmund aren't good at defending deep against similar levels of talent — see the second leg at Chelsea for how that went. But the Bayern attack still has a bunch of players out of form and Dortmund's attack has some regression looming after a red-hot two month period of finishing.
This should play out closer to how the first match between the two clubs did — just 21 total shots, 2.2 xG and a very conservative start to the match for both sides. As a result, I'm going to bet the under in the first half at 1.5, -120 or better and under in the game at 3.5, -120 or better.
