Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -300 |
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +490 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -160 / +130 |
Bayern Munich are 10 points back of Bayer Leverkusen with just eight matches to play in the Bundesliga season. Barring a historic collapse from Leverkusen, the Bayern streak of winning the German top flight will come to an end this year. Borussia Dortmund were the expected closest challenger to Bayern in the betting markets entering the year, but now Dortmund are barely clinging to their spot in the top four entering Saturday's matchup.
The first meeting between the two clubs was over within 10 minutes in Dortmund in November. Dayot Upamecano scored a header from a corner kick in the fourth minute and Harry Kane doubled Bayern's lead in the ninth. Bayern only totaled 14 shots in the match, but it tallied four goals and 3.4 xG with absurdly high average shot quality.
Dortmund conceded six big scoring chances, and that doesn't offer a ton of optimism for how they'll handle the attacking intensity and quality of Bayern on the road Saturday.
Bayern Munich
Bayern had a brutal five match stretch in February that continued into March where the Bavarians managed one win in five matches in all competitions. A blowout 3-0 defeat to Leverkusen, a lifeless 1-0 loss to Lazio, a 3-2 shock defeat to Bochum and a 2-2 draw with Freiburg basically eliminated Bayern from the title race.
It was then announced that Thomas Tuchel would not return to Bayern next season, and the public discourse surrounding the club suggested he shouldn't even last that long. Bayern's underlying statistical profile in Germany remains quite dominant this year with a +1.85 xG difference per 90 minutes. There's one stat for me that best truly defines Bayern's season in the Bundesliga.
Points per game:
2022-23: 2.08 — won league title over Dortmund on goal difference
2023-24: 2.30 — 10 points off Leverkusen
Bayern's "regression" in Germany has more to do with Bayer Leverkusen's incredible unbeaten run. Leverkusen haven't lost a match all season and as good as Bayern has been, they've slipped up more than enough times to make this relatively easy for Leverkusen in the final eight matches.
Since that poor stretch, Bayern beat Lazio 3-0 to advance to the Champions League quarterfinal and then scored 13 goals in two matches against Mainz and Darmstadt. My projection has Bayern for 2.57 goals in this match and Dortmund's middling defense will be under constant pressure on Saturday.
Bayern are without Noussair Mazaroui, Sacha Boey and Raphael Guerreiro, which means that Joshua Kimmich may be forced to slot in at right back for Bayern given the injury crisis. That will shoehorn Konrad Laimer into the lineup, who is an excellent ball winner and stopper in the defensive midfield.
They're finally getting healthy with the return of Kingsley Coman, who should feature off the bench behind Serge Gnabry, Jamal Musiala, Thomas Muller and Harry Kane.
Borussia Dortmund
If you compare Dortmund's raw xG difference per match to past seasons, you shouldn't be too surprised to see them barely clinging to fourth place in the league, one point in front of RB Leipzig.
xG difference per 90
2020-21: +0.72
2021-22: +0.52
2022-23: +0.82
2023-24: +0.41
Not only is Dortmund's defense just league average, but even the attack is fifth in xG, xG per shot, big scoring chances and total shot attempts. There's nothing particularly excellent about this crop of attacking talent, either. Jadon Sancho has provided a spark since rejoining the club on loan from Manchester United, but Dortmund aren't at full strength for this match.
The problem for Dortmund is that Malen picked up an injury on international duty and will not make the trip to Bayern. He's been the most productive all around forward. Even though both starting goalkeepers are out, Malen's 11 goals and an assist aren't easily replaced in this Dortmund system.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Prediction
The market had Bayern as low as -200 on the three way moneyline before getting steamed up to the current -240 consensus price.
I don't think that Bayern will have a ton of issues in winning this match, but the value in betting them is no longer there for me. They've dominated this rivalry in recent seasons and Dortmund have not at all punched up well this season when facing the fellow top teams. Dortmund lost twice to Stuttgart, lost to Leipzig, rode good variance to advance from a difficult Champions League group and picked up a fortunate 1-1 draw against Leverkusen.
The total for this match is usually correctly set at 3.5, and Bayern's defensive quality suggests the total shouldn't be four. My projections have 3.67 goals for this match and I'd bet under 4 at -120 or better.
