Bayer Leverkusen keep winning and holding off Bayern at the top of the Bundesliga table. Xabi Alonso's side dropped points at Bayern, but Leverkusen have won every other match they have played this season. Bayern dropped points in the German topspiel, 2-2, on the road at RB Leipzig last weekend, leaving Bayern on 14 points. The German champions are two points behind Leverkusen as the October international break approaches and one point behind surprise package Stuttgart.
Leverkusen and Bayern are both huge moneyline favorites at home this weekend, while Stuttgart host Wolfsburg in a relatively even matchup of top seven teams. Dortmund host struggling Union Berlin after their goalless draw in Europe with AC Milan.
Here are my two best bets for the German Bundesliga this weekend, featuring RB Leipzig vs Bochum and Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim.
Bundesliga Odds & Picks
| RB Leipzig Odds | -400 |
| Bochum Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
Bochum just conceded 4.8 xG on the road at Bayern in a 7-0 defeat and followed that up with a 3-1 loss at home to previously winless Monchengladbach last week. The defense has had major issues, with 9.7 xG allowed in three away matches this season. If you go back to last season, Bochum's defensive issues extend long beyond this year. They conceded 37 xGA in 17 away matches in the league last year, the worst in the Bundesliga.
With that being said, you're not going to get a better situational spot for Bochum than this one. RB Leipzig just played Bayern Munich and Manchester City in the same week, and now they could be caught overlooking one of the worst teams in the league. Half of Leipzig's squad will be playing on their respective international teams in the coming weeks and Leipzig's underlying numbers already have some clear holes in them.
The attack hasn't been as consistently dynamic as last year. Leipzig won't have Kevin Kampl or Dani Olmo available for this match and they've had to a lot of defending out of possession in the last week. Marco Rose could opt to rotate some of his key players in this match.
They've run ridiculously hot at both ends of the pitch from a finishing perspective and that's not going to continue forever. I don't think Leipzig are as bad as their underlying numbers suggest, but Rose's side is more vulnerable than I originally thought even a few weeks ago. Play the spot and against the inflated Leipzig number in this one.
Picks: Bochum +0.5 first half (+120), Bochum +1.5 (+115)
| Werder Bremen Odds | +175 |
| Hoffenheim Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Werder Bremen have played three matches at home this season and while they were uncompetitive with Bayern on opening day, they followed that up with impressive and controlled home victories against Mainz and Köln. Bremen have had their poor results away from home against newly promoted sides, but the aggregate is that Bremen are about an average team in the Bundesliga through the opening six matches.
You have to schedule adjust some of their numbers downward, but the expected threat numbers have Werder Bremen ninth in attack and 12th in defense out of 18 teams. The main reason to be bearish on Bremen was the loss of Niklas Fullkrug to Dortmund in the summer transfer window. He led Bremen in goals and was the focal point of the attack.
Through the opening portion of the year, Bremen are sixth in expected goals created. I don't expect them to stay that high up in the table offensively given the talent in their squad, but fears that Bremen could be in relegation trouble appear to be set aside for me.
Hoffenheim's attack has pulled off some impressive comebacks already this season, but there's a lot of air in these numbers. They have terrible defensive numbers too (at least 1 xGA in every match) and this is an excellent time to sell Hoffenheim after a hot start to the season. The two biggest wins of the season were driven heavily by finishing variance and penalty luck.
Pick: Werder Bremen PK (+100 or better)
