Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Gladbach vs Bayern, More

20 matches down, 14 to go in the Bundesliga and Bayern Munich's lead remains just one point at the top.

Union Berlin pulled off a stunning comeback upset at RB Leipzig and stayed within a point of Bayern last time out. Borussia Dortmund got revenge on Werder Bremen on the road to stay within two points and Freiburg came from behind with two penalties to beat Stuttgart and move into the top four.

Matchweek 21 in the Bundesliga doesn't have a ton of high stakes matches with teams near one another in the table, but the slate does have one key fixture: Gladbach vs. Bayern. That fixture has produced a ton of compelling drama in the last few seasons.

Here are my three best bets for Matchweek 21 in the Bundesliga.

Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich's bogey team in Germany for the last three seasons is back to strike yet again on Saturday. Gladbach are in terrible form entering this match with just one win in five league matches since returning from the World Cup break. Despite this, the Foals have been a thorn in the side of the German champions time and time again.

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Gladbach and Bayern have played six times. Bayern had their lone 6-0 win in spring 2021, but the Foals have won three of the other five meetings. The other two ended in a draw, including the 1-1 thriller in Munich in the first half of this season. Former Gladbach and now Bayern keeper Yann Sommer broke the Bundesliga record for saves in that match, but the Foals were just five minutes from a historic upset as a +1100 moneyline underdog.

It's a tricky spot for Bayern, who are on short rest following their away victory in Paris on Tuesday in the Champions League. Bayern showed in that match what their flaws are.

As good as the German press is and as much as they can suffocate teams, the shot quality at both ends of the pitch is concerning. Bayern don't get as many high quality chances from the center of the penalty area — a product of losing and downgrading from Robert Lewandowski.

At the other end of the pitch, they concede high quality chances in transition. That's how the Foals scored the opening goal in Munich and Gladbach are well positioned to keep this game competitive on Saturday. Gladbach star man Marcus Thuram is expected to be fit enough to start too.

Dabbundo's Picks: Gladbach +1.5 (-120) | Gladbach ML (+600)

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen

From a pure regression standpoint, Eintracht Frankfurt and Werder Bremen both sit in the top five in Bundesliga in goals over expected goals created this season. These two attacks have produced a lot of goals from pretty middling underlying numbers and the total is a touch inflated when they meet on Saturday in Frankfurt.

They played to a 4-3 thriller in the first meeting in a match that featured seven goals on 19 shots and less than 2.8 non-penalty xG. Frankfurt are the home favorite here and they've produced just the 12th-best expected threat numbers this season.

Frankfurt are also 15th in shots, sixth in final third entries and 14th in crosses completed. They're in a transitionary period away from the Filip Kostic crossing era and they haven't dropped off in goal production, but the underlying numbers have slid considerably.

Werder Bremen showed a promising attack in the first third of the season, but they've failed to produce 1.0 xG in five of the last six league matches. The lone exception was at home to Wolfsburg.

The Frankfurt defense has better numbers comparably than the attack. There's an argument to be made that the attack that is second in goals in Germany will regress downward, but the defense is better than seventh-best goals allowed in the league.

Three is the key number I'd need to play the under, and Bundesliga unders are rarely fun, but it's how I'm betting this feature match on Saturday.

Dabbundo's Pick: Under 3 (-110)

Union Berlin vs Schalke 04

Union Berlin have defied the odds, the market and their underlying numbers for the entire season. They've been remarkably efficient at turning their limited penalty area touches and shots into goals. They rank 15th in xG per match in Germany and don't play like most German teams stylistically.

Union are seventh in goals, only Bayern has conceded fewer goals and only Bayern have more points at this point in the season. Urs Fischer's side does all of the little things right, and the market is still skeptical of them being a really good team. I'm guilty of not picking the right spots to bet against them and losing money doing so, but a big home favorite is exactly the spot to fade them.

Union are bottom-five in box entires, bottom-three in shots, xG and dead-last in big scoring chances created. They've had a red hot finishing streak but now need to win by at least two goals to get the margin required to beat me here.

Schalke are really poor as a team, but even they're not as bad as their underlying numbers would suggest. The attacks are pretty comparable in underlying production and Schalke are even generating more crosses and shots per 90.

I'm selling Union Berlin again, but this time as a big home favorite.

Dabbundo's Pick: Schalke +1 (-120)