Hoffenheim vs Dortmund Odds
| Hoffenheim Odds | +200 |
| Dortmund Odds | +115 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100 / -120 |
Match week 5 in the Bundesliga kicks off on Friday with a matchup of two of the top six sides in the table. Borussia Dortmund haven't yet a lost a match in the league, but their weak strength of schedule and underlying numbers suggest some concerns about their true quality since losing Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid.
Hoffenheim have run really well with finishing variance at both ends of the pitch to win four of their five matches despite a barely positive expected goal difference. The break out from striker Maximillian Beier has carried their attack to this point in the season, but there's real questions about how sustainable all of Hoffenheim's numbers really are, including Beier.
There's a lot of questions about both clubs to be answered in this matchup on Friday, especially in how both clubs will continue to create chances after hot starts in attack.
Let's get into this Hoffenheim vs Dortmund clash.
Hoffenheim
Beier has scored four goals from 1.7 xG, which should immediately raise concerns about sustainability. He only managed 1.91 shots per 90 in the second tier of Germany last season, and expecting him to sustain a leap to 2.94 shots per 90 as he levels up a division seems unreasonable. He's of the age profile at 20 where he could have certainly improved his skills to produce more, but he's not going to keep scoring half of his shots or two-third of his shots on target.
When you consider that Hoffenheim have played a pretty weak strength of schedule and already earned two penalties in their first five matches, the fifth-best xG per 90 ranking doesn't really hold up to scrutiny when trying to assess how good they are from a true talent perspective. The attack is still all about Andrej Kramaric, and his step back last year is a major reason why the club fell down to 12th in the table. Kramaric consistently produced north of 0.60 non-penalty xG + xA per 90 year after year and he fell to 0.40 per 90 in his age 31 last year.
The sample is too sample for him this year, but he looks closer to that version of Kramaric in the new season. Beier has made up for the lost production for now, but the attack isn't going to hold up to being anything more than a league average unit going forward.
Dortmund
If you schedule adjust Dortmund's numbers through the first five matches, they look like a marginally above average Bundesliga side. The +0.88 xGD per 90 is impressive on the surface, but they have played Freiburg, Wolfsburg, Köln, Bochum and Heidenheim. That's two marginally above average sides and three of the worst in Germany this year.
The defense did post two consecutive weeks of above average performances against Freiburg (1.0 xGA) and Wolfsburg (0.5 xGA), which does offer some modest optimism that Edin Terzic may finally be adjusting tactically to the loss of Bellingham in midfield.
Dortmund's xG leader thus far this season is Mats Hummels, a center back, which is the beauty of small samples. It also suggests that Dortmund's xGF numbers are also inflated off of a few big chances that fell to Hummels. Dortmund is third in most of the key attacking success numbers, but again every season-long Dortmund stat has to come with the same schedule adjusted caveat.
If the Blacks and Yellows were playing at the same level as last year, you'd expect them to be ahead of Leverkusen and closer to Bayern at the top of the league. The ball stopping numbers are mediocre and Hoffenheim should get plenty of touches in the Dortmund penalty area.
Hoffenheim vs Dortmund
Pick & Prediction
I'm lower than the market currently on both clubs and it's clear based on ratings that the market has really downgraded the Dortmund side this year. Dortmund's attack hasn't been the same ball progression machine without Bellingham and Raphael Guerrero. and Donyell Malen has been their most consistent attacker at this point in the year.
Until Marco Reus, Julian Brandt and Sebastien Haller kick into form, Dortmund's attack has real questions. Hoffenheim has gotten four goals from the young breakout Beier — who might be a key player going forward — but there's a lot of air in his numbers too as Kramaric is slowing down. Despite my concerns about both defenses, I'm betting under 3.5 at -120 or better.
