A week after Inter Milan smushed Juventus in a massive title race six-pointer in Serie A, both the Bundesliga and La Liga have key clashes between the top two teams in their respective title races. In Germany, Bayern Munich have a new challenger at the top of the table in Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso is the betting favorite to land the Liverpool job in the summer, but not before he tries to win the first ever Bundesliga title for Bayer Leverkusen. Leverkusen haven't lost a match all season long and hold a two point lead headed into Saturday's clash.
In Spain, Girona have just one defeat all season and it came to Real Madrid in the reverse fixture between these two clubs. Girona sit two points behind Real Madrid in the table and given Barcelona's struggles, the upstart Spanish side is the best positioned club to take down Madrid.
Here are my three favorite bets outside of the Premier League across Europe's top five leagues.
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Soccer Odds & Predictions
| Leverkusen Odds | +162 |
| Bayern Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +120 / -150 |
Bayern Munich received some positive injury and team news ahead of this match. Both Dayot Upamecano and Joshua Kimmich returned to training to solidify the defense, and Kim Min-jae is back from international duty with South Korea. Bayern had to play a makeshift defensive unit in the win against Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend and that resulted in some high turnovers and mistakes by the back line.
Bayer Leverkusen are still without Victor Boniface and the downgrade to Patrik Schick has been noticeable for the attack. These two teams are perhaps most interesting tactically because both have dialed back the pressing intensity compared to the normal Bundesliga standard. Alonso and Thomas Tuchel have dominated the Bundesliga this year and maintained high quality defensive metrics by not totally overcommitting to pressure and winning the ball back.
The first meeting between these two teams changed immediately when Bayern scored a set piece goal in the opening minutes. We didn't get to see a ton of minutes of soccer where these two teams were in a neutral game state, and I wouldn't be surprised if this match were more cagey and tactical than you'd expect for a high profile Bundesliga match.
Leverkusen like to use both of their wing backs in the back three to get forward, and that could leave them outnumbered in the midfield exchanges by Bayern, who are likely to create a four man box of Jamal Musiala, Kimmich, Leon Goretzka and Thomas Muller to progress the ball up the pitch.
The tactical nature could make the match, and especially the first half, lower scoring than expected.
Pick: First half under 1.5 (-140)
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| Real Madrid Odds | -225 |
| Girona Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100 / -125 |
Girona's matchups against the two top sides in La Liga have gone as you'd expect. They've loaded up their starting lineup with a ton of passing quality that does little to no defensive work and it has created a truly below average defensive unit in La Liga. There were 3.9 xG created in a 3-0 loss to Real Madrid and 6.2 xG created in a 4-2 win against Barcelona.
Girona have only conceded 25 total goals because they've run good defensively, but they've also allowed 31 expected goals, 11th-best in La Liga. They rank in the bottom five in xG allowed in transition and now face one of the best transition attacks in the world in Real Madrid. Girona are expected to have top scorer Artem Dovbyk back from injury just in time to bolster an attack that had struggled a bit for goals in the last few matches without him. Dovbyk is averaging 0.82 xG + xA per 90 in Spain this year.
Real Madrid may not have a single fit center back for this match, which likely means Aurelien Tchouameni and Dani Carvajal as the center back pairing. That also pushes aging stars Toni Kroos and Luka Modric into midfield, improving Real's attacking outlook while hurting them defensively. There's a chance Antonio Rudiger passes fit for this match, but that still leaves Real shorthanded overall in defense.
Los Blancos have had major defensive issues most of the season and are happy to get into back and forth matches that lack structure and control. Vinicius Junior is also expected to start in a front three with Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham, which is their best front three combination.
It's rare to see a La Liga total this high, but it's still not high enough given the play styles of these two clubs.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+100)
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| PSG Odds | -163 |
| Lille Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
The gap between these two teams at the top of Ligue 1 isn't as big as the market is suggesting here. I've kept waiting for PSG to really improve or turn a corner to dominate this league more and it just isn't happening. By my numbers, PSG and Lille are the two best teams in France. Unlike most teams in France, Lille are effective at controlling possession and pressing PSG into some uncomfortable positions.
The first meeting between these two teams came down to the final kick as Lille equalized in what was a relatively even match. PSG were awarded a penalty and still finished the game with just 1.4 xG. Lille took more shots (15-9) despite having fewer penalty area touches (22-32). Kylian Mbappé is the difference maker in most matches and his production is other worldly, but Lille are a considerably better defensive outfit this year.
Les Dogues have conceded the second-fewest goals and the fewest non-penalty xG in Ligue 1 this year. PSG's ability to defend in the penalty area and play out of possession remains flawed. The Parisians haven't paid much for their flaws in the table, but there are underlying concerns to examine. Lille aren't a full goal worse and I'd bet Lille +1 at -130 or better.
