The European soccer schedule returns from the November international break ahead of the chaotic December fixture list. Action kicks off on Friday afternoon as PSG host Monaco in the French Ligue 1 and Bayern visit Köln in the German Bundesliga. There are multiple key top six clashes in Italy as Atalanta hosts Napoli on Saturday and Juventus host Inter Milan on Sunday.
Here are my best bets in the Europe's top five leagues outside of the English Premier League.
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Soccer Predictions
| Dortmund Odds | -223 |
| Gladbach Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300 / +240 |
Borussia Dortmund host Borussia Monchengladbach in one of the highlight matches in the German Bundesliga this weekend. Dortmund's defense has had major issues in almost every match it has played against quality opponents. Dortmund conceded 4.2 xGA in a 2-1 loss to Stuttgart just before the break. They had a solid showing at home against shorthanded Newcastle in the Champions League, but prior to that conceded 3.2 xGA to Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker, 2.2 to Eintracht Frankfurt.
This defense is 12th in non-penalty xGA out of 18 teams in the German top flight. They're conceding nearly 2 xG per match and the market are still catching up to just how bad the defense is. They've played an easier than average schedule of opposing attacks and the lack of ball winning in midfield and set piece defense is a real issue. Dortmund are seventh in box entries allowed, 12th in xG per set piece and are a vulnerable favorite against an improved Gladbach attack.
Gladbach lost most of their attacking production in the summer transfer window, but the bets they've made on Franck Honorat, Tomas Cvancara and Jordan Pefok have helped produce an above-average attacking output. Honorat is an elite ball progressor and the Foals now can spread out their attacking production across the entire frontline.
Dortmund's defense will struggle to contain Gladbach on the break and that makes them a vulnerable favorite in this matchup.
Picks: Gladbach First Half Team Total o0.5 (+125), Gladbach +1.25 (-115)
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| Valencia Odds | +120 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +107 / -128 |
Two of my favorite bet on teams in Europe's top five leagues are facing off against one another in the Spanish top flight on Saturday morning. Celta Vigo's historic run of bad luck continued just before the international break, when they conceded a stoppage time penalty and lost 4-3 at Bilbao with the last kick of the game. Valencia went to Real Madrid and created 1.8 xG in a 5-1 defeat. Prior to that, Valencia drew 2-2 at Bilbao with 1.9 xGF. The attack hasn't been nearly as good this year as years past and the market has gotten too low on the goal environment in their matches now.
The defense has been in the top five in Spain, and the attack is in the bottom five based on xG created and allowed. I'd expect both to regress closer to league average going forward and do expect more goal scoring in their matches going forward than we've seen at this point. On the other side, Rafa Benetiz's Vigo has been considerably more passive and defensive overall when compared to last year. The underlying attacking process has taken a step forward for Vigo this year despite the more defensive approach. They've just run really poorly with late game variance, controversial VAR overturns and bad finishing luck.
The market is suppressed in this game as a result, and I'd bet both teams to score yes at -110 or better.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-110)
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| Strasbourg Odds | +280 |
| Marseille Odds | -110 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
Marseille travel to Northeast France to face Strasbourg in one of two Ligue 1 matches scheduled for Saturday. After multiple seasons where Marseille consistently outperformed their underlying metrics, OM are actually running cold when you compare their expected goal differential to their actual goal differential.
The problem for Marseille is that the underlying attacking process numbers are still pretty mediocre. Anytime they've faced a quality opponent, they've failed to create more than 1 xG. Ligue 1 has been considerably lower event this year and Marseille are sixth in final third entires, ninth in box entries and seventh in expected threat. It's true that Marseille are second in non-penalty xG overall, but that is inflated by a handful of outlier games against the terrible teams at the bottom of the table and a bunch of big scoring chances.
Strasbourg are the textbook definition of an average Ligue 1 team — and Marseille shouldn't be an odds-on favorite on the road against them. Strasbourg have scored just nine goals all year from 12 xG, so there is some positive regression coming for them at the margins. Patrick Vieira has improved their defensive metrics considerably and I'll take the dog in what should be a low scoring affair.
