Here is my AC Milan vs Liverpool prediction ahead of their Champions League opener on Tuesday. Kickoff is at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+ from the San Siro in Milan.
Liverpool are back in the Champions League after a one-year absence. The Reds suffered their first blemish of the Arne Slot era, losing to Nottingham Forest 1-0 at home this weekend. Liverpool had been brilliant before the international break but struggled to generate chances against a really good defensive side, which may have fans worried a little bit as they begin their Champions League campaign.
AC Milan have struggled this season with just one win from their first four matches. Paulo Fonscea is now in charge after spending two successful seasons at Lille. AC Milan are coming off a second-place finish in Serie A and making the quarterfinals of the Europa League, but given the investment made into the squad, they will be hoping for a much deeper run in Europe this season.
AC Milan vs Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction
| AC Milan Odds | +280 |
| Liverpool Odds | -110 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
AC Milan Preview
AC Milan's beginning to the Paulo Fonseca era hasn't really gone very well. The reason for that is they have a little bit of a different defensive structure than they did under Stefano Pioli. Last year they were very much a man to man marking team all over the pitch, while Fonseca wants them to have a little bit more of a zonal structure.
Under Fonseca so far, it's been a bit more of a passive approach sitting in a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 structure and relying on triggers to know when to press their opponent. The defensive numbers have not been good, and a lot of that has to do with the change in defensive identity. They are allowing 1.26 npxG per 90 minutes through four matches, which isn't all that impressive given the opponents they've faced. With that being said, a passive defensive approach is the way to play against Arne Slot's Liverpool, as Nottingham Forest showed over the weekend.
Fonseca at Lille wanted his team to play out of the back, but they were very versatile when they were in possession. Lille did have the second-most 10+ pass sequences in Ligue 1 behind only PSG and that has not changed so far, as AC Milan have attempted the fourth-most passes in Serie A. Fonseca typically has his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with the aim at overloading the middle of the pitch. Noah Okafor is the key to all of this working because Jonathan David at Lille was so good at knowing when to drop deep and when to make runs off the back line. Okafor is young and so far hasn't taken to role effectively yet, as he's only created 0.7 expected goals in four starts.
AC Milan will have to take more direct approach in this match, which Fonseca's Lille were pretty effective at in Ligue 1 and in the Europa Conference League last season, but doing that against Liverpool's defense is another story.
Liverpool Preview
Liverpool look a lot different under Arne Slot, but Saturday against Nottingham Forest showed some of the flaws of his in possession system.
Nottingham Forest sat very passively in a low defensive block for the entire match and cut off Liverpool from play through the middle of the pitch. That meant that the Reds needed to create overloads and chances from wide areas, which they were not able to do. In the end, Liverpool were only able to create 0.9 expected goals off of 14 shots and only two of their shots had an xG rating higher than 0.10.
Arne Slot is valuing control much more than Jurgen Klopp did. He is typically having his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the midfield to be the main conductor of the entire build up. It's been working against teams like Ipswich Town and Manchester United, who tried to press them, but for teams that sit back they have found some difficulties in creating chances.
That is because Slot hasn't completely taken Liverpool's identity away. He still wants them to play direct and look to hit teams quickly, which is why they were one of the best offensive teams in the world under Klopp. The question is when teams don't allow them to play direct, can they continually create high quality chances?
The biggest change for Liverpool has come defensively. They aren’t counter-pressing with reckless abandon and are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack. So far they have only conceded one goal and 2.8 expected goals through four matches, so AC Milan are likely going to struggle to create chances.
Champions League Picks, Predictions for AC Milan vs Liverpool
The totals in Liverpool matches still haven't adjusted to the new way they have been playing. All four of their Premier League matches have gone under the closing number and the market continues to set totals as if it's Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool.
AC Milan are without a doubt going to take the blueprint that Nottingham Forest laid out, sit deep and try to close off the middle of the pitch. If they are able to do that, I think Liverpool are going to find it just as difficult to create chances as they did over the weekend.
Liverpool should be able to keep out this AC Milan team that really doesn't have an attack that can hurt them when they play direct. In addition to that, nobody in Serie A presses any more, so when Liverpool do decide to press Milan's build up, I don't think Fonseca's side is going to have a lot of success.
So, I like the value on the under.
