Lazio vs Atletico Madrid Odds
| Lazio Odds | +425 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | -154 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -105 / -118 |
The top two spots in Group E of the Champions League were clinched in match week 5 when Atletico Madrid won at Feyenoord and Lazio beat Celtic at home. The Spanish and Italian sides were the two betting favorites to advance at the beginning of group play and they'll advance to the Round of 16 in February.
Before that, the two sides will conclude group play on Wednesday and play for the group first place position, which will have important ramifications for potential opponent quality in the Champions League knockout draw on Dec. 18. The second place team stands to face a considerably more difficult opponent in the round of 16.
Atletico Madrid will clinch the group with a win or draw and Diego Simeone's side is the clear favorite to win the group as a result. Lazio have a key Serie A clash this weekend against Inter Milan, so you could see some rotation from them in this difficult road spot against a rejuvenated Atletico defense.
Let's see how I'm betting Lazio vs Atletico Madrid.
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Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid's defense went through a real rough patch last season, but Simeone's side has returned to their usual place at the top of the xGA leaderboards in La Liga. They've conceded just 1.06 xGA per match in Spain this season and outside of one match at home against Feyenoord in the Champions League, Los Colchoneros have remained an elite goal and chance prevention unit.
The biggest question entering this season was whether they could continue to get superstar level production from Antoine Griezmann. His underlying numbers haven't been quite as elite as last year's peak late career year, but he's remained a quality goalscorer. Griezmann was producing 0.83 non-penalty xG + xA per 90 last season in La Liga. Thus far in this season, he's back down to 0.58.
Atletico are at their best when playing with a lead and because of the draw protection, they are essentially starting this match with a half-goal lead on the scoreboard. Atletico went up 1-0 on Lazio on the road in the first leg in the 29th minute. While playing for a lead for an hour, Lazio managed one shot attempt with an xG rating above 0.05 until the last moment of the game.
Lazio's attack wasn't creative or consistent enough to really threaten Jan Oblak in goal. It wasn't until stoppage time when Lazio goalkeeper Ivan Provedel came forward and scored a header off of a free kick to tie the match at 1-1 that the Biancocelesti could really break down the vintage Simeone low block.
Lazio
Lazio's attacking production in Serie A has taken a significant step back this season. For two consecutive seasons, Lazio ran as well as any club in Europe from a finishing perspective. The Biancocelesti consistently outperformed their underlying numbers and it helped get them into Europe despite league average underlying numbers.
This season, Lazio are running much closer to their expected goal tally and Ciro Immobile's underlying numbers have taken a real step back. Immobile scored 12 goals in 24.9 90s in Serie A last season and maintained a 0.42 NPxG production rate. This year, Immobile has played 9.7 90s in the Italian top flight and he's produced just one non-penalty goal. His NPxG per 90 has plummeted to 0.17 per match in the same timespan.
Lazio has already begun to replace him by giving more minutes to Valentiń Castellanos, who has averaged 0.54 NPxG in Italy this year. Immobile did score twice in the win against Celtic and he has three goals in five Champions League places. That makes him far more likely to start on Wednesday, even if Lazio aren't nearly as dynamic in attack with Immobile leading the line.
Atletico Madrid vs Lazio
Prediction
There's an interesting dynamic happening in both Spain and Italy domestically this season. La Liga goal production and scoring is marginally up year over year, while Serie A's is down. Lazio's attack is only producing 1.22 xG per match in Italy this year and their production in the Champions League has been extremely mediocre in the three matches against Feyenoord and Atletico thus far.
It's hard to see Lazio threatening the Atleti goal consistently in this match and since Simeone is playing with a lead, this should be a low event matchup in the Spanish capital. Much like the first leg between these two clubs in September, I'd bet under 2.5 at -120 or better.
