Entering Tuesday’s fixtures, there’s still a lot left to play for in Group H.
Paris Saint-Germain and Benfica are tied on points for the top spot – PSG has the goal differential advantage – while Juventus and Maccabi Haifa each have three points through four fixtures.
On Tuesday, PSG welcomes the Israeli champions to the Parc des Princes while Juventus travels to Portugal seeking revenge for a 2-1 loss on Matchday 2.
How should bettors approach Tuesday’s pair of matches? Without further delay, here are my best bets for each contest.
Group H Champions League Best Bets
PSG vs. Maccabi Haifa
| PSG Odds | -1100 |
| Maccabi Haifa Odds | +2500 |
| Draw | +1000 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-134 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Say a prayer and back the underdog to get on the board here!
We all know PSG is going to score here, so this is effectively a bet on Maccabi Haifa over 0.5 goals. Although I’m extremely nervous based on the Israeli outfit’s opening road fixture against Benfica – zero goals on 0.2 expected goals on target (xGOT), recent results leave me encouraged.
In two fixtures against Juventus and one against PSG, Maccabi Haifa generated 4.58 xGOT along with four big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. For the competition as a whole, manager Barak Bakhar’s squad has scored four goals off 4.99 xGOT and four big scoring chances.
Further, for as good as this PSG defense has looked in this competition, it has historically allowed bottom-feeders to get on the board. In their past four UCL fixtures against teams that finished last in the group, Les Parisiens have surrendered a goal in three.
Those goals aren’t fluky, either, as the French outfit has conceded 1.13 xG per 90 minutes in those four fixtures and held none of those four sides under 0.9 xG, per fbref.com.
Based on those trends, I’ll back this market to +110.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (+125)
Benfica vs. Juventus
| Benfica Odds | -105 |
| Juventus Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-108 / -112) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Personally, I’m treating this bet as a Juventus to score bet as I don’t think the Old Lady is capable of holding Benfica.
At home against PSG – a defense I rate ahead of Juventus – Benfica posted one goal on 1.26 xGOT along with four big scoring chances. Plus, on Matchday 2 at Juventus, Benfica created 3.14 xGOT along with three big scoring chances.
Plus, across their past 14 road Champions League fixtures, Juventus have kept a clean sheet only five times. However, only one of those five occasions came against a side inside the top-10 of UEFA country coefficients.
At the same time, this Juventus attack has shown signs of improvement lately. In its last five fixtures, manager Max Allegri’s side has generated 9.24 xGOT and arrives in Portugal a positive regression candidate (eight goals against 9.24 xGOT).
Add in the level of desperation with the Italian outfit – three points is paramount should it hope to advance – and I’ll play this market up to -140.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-135)
