Champions League Best Bets
The Champions League is back for the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including PSV vs Dortmund and Porto vs Arsenal. Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| PSV Eindhoven Odds | +110 |
| Dortmund Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175o / +135u |
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Dabbundo: Borussia Dortmund won the group of death and advanced despite not being favored to do so in the betting markets. The underlying profile of this Dortmund team and the rest of the Bundesliga performances in the Champions League leave real questions about them entering this match though. Dortmund conceded more than two expected goals on average in three away CL matches. Given that Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Union Berlin struggled relatively in Europe as well, the market may well be overvaluing the German sides systematically.
Dortmund’s biggest weakness overall is their inability to stop the ball in midfield and offer any real transition defense. Facing a PSV side that somewhat resembles a German team, the Dortmund defense will be stretched from the opening kickoff. PSV have become an extremely aggressive passing team that moves the ball forward quickly, is elite at playing through pressure and generates chances through direct attacks.
PSV could be exposed themselves in transition by leaving themselves too open, but they have the modest advantage at home in the first leg. With these two teams being roughly equal on a neutral for me, the Dutch side should be a bigger favorite than the market suggests. I’d bet PSV at +115 or better.
Pick: PSV Eindhoven ML (+115 via DraftKings)
| Porto Odds | +450 |
| Arsenal Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100o / -125u |
Cunningham:Arsenal have made a pretty big change tactically and it’s made them incredibly difficult for opposing teams to prepare for.
The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. Oftentimes Odegaard, Havertz or Trossard will drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man. If opposing defenses go man to man, Trossard and Odegaard will pull center backs or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Martinelli and Saka to make runs at or in behind the opposing back line.
This is the third match since Arsenal have made this change and they’ve scored a whopping 14 goals in those three matches, so it’s safe to say that teams are having a difficult time trying to figure out how to defend the Gunners.
This Porto team is not as talented as the teams we’ve seen in the past. Evanilson is their only real offensive threat, putting up a 0.47 xG per 90 minute scoring rate in the Portuguese Primiera Liga, but nobody else on the team is over 0.35. Even Teremi is only getting 1.2 shots per 90 minutes this year and is completely out of form.
Something else that is interesting with Porto is they’ve switched to a 4-2-3-1 the last six matches in Portugal to try and play more possession-dominant football, going away from their normal 4-4-2 that we’ve seen for years. They will most likely play out of their 4-4-2, but Porto like to play a high line out of their mid-block to limit teams playing through the middle while pressing intensely, which is how they gave Barcelona problems. Good luck trying that against one of the best build up teams in the world.
I have Arsenal projected at -188, so I love the value on them at -140.
Pick: Arsenal ML (-140 via Caesars)
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