Club Brugge vs. Benfica Odds
Club Brugge Odds | +370 |
Benfica Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +265 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-135 /+110) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The surprising underdog Club Brugge out of Belgium hosts Portuguese side Benfica in the Champions League round of 16.
Club Brugge somehow made it out of a group with Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Porto to earn a spot here, but they are the biggest long shot on the board at 150-1 to win the Champions League.
Benfica impressively won their Champions League group over both PSG and Juventus to set a favorable round of 16 matchup. The Portuguese side has been dominant domestically and in Europe as they have only lost one match over the entire season.
They've also been in great form heading into this encounter, as they are riding a four match win streak.
Read on for my Club Brugge vs Benfica Champions League pick.
Club Brugge Fortunate to Be in Knockout Stage
Out of the World Cup break, Brugge have won one single match in the Belgian Pro League, and for the season they only have a +0.35 xGD per 90 minutes. Scott Parker is now in charge, and that hasn't been going well.
Brugge got out of a group with Porto, Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid with a -3.8 xGD. The reason for that was because Simon Mignolet played out of his mind in net, putting up a +5.7 post shot xG +/-. The one match they got routed was by fellow Portuguese side Porto.
Parker has Club Brugge playing out of a 4-3-3, which is the same formation under the previous manager Carl Hoefkens. Under Parker, Brugge have pressed a lot higher and with a lot of intensity since, but that has left them a tad open at the back. They've conceded 9.8 xG in his seven matches in charge.
The fear for Club Brugge here is if you can't defend teams in the Belgian Pro League, what makes you think you can defend the best team outside of Europe's top five leagues?
Benfica Playing World Class Soccer
Benfica are the best team outside of Europe's top five leagues and they have put up unbelievable underlying metrics in the Portuguese Primiera Liga. They have a +1.93 xGD and are averaging 2.54 xG per 90 minutes.
They were incredibly impressive during the group stage and were able to overtake PSG on the final day. Benfica drew PSG twice and for the entirety of the group stage had a +3.5 xGD.
Benfica did lose their best midfielder Enzo Fernandez at the transfer deadline, but this is a team stacked with talent across the board. Fernandez was their top ball progresser with 183 progressive passes on the season, but you have to remember he only arrived at Benfica this summer, so it's not like they lost a crucial player that has been in their midfield for years.
The team is stacked with talent that can rip apart Brugge's defense. Benfica are averaging 2.54 xG per 90 minutes in the Portuguese Primiera Liga and also put up a whopping 10.6 xG in their six Champions League group stage matches.
Club Brugge vs. Benfica Pick
I think this line is criminally low for Benfica, who have far better underlying metrics in a far more difficult league and have a ton more talent than Brugge, who are still trying to find their identity under a new manager.
Per transfermarkt.com, Benfica's total squad transfer value is $277.5 million, while Brugge are only at $173.75 million. Additionally, Brugge could be without two of their best players in Andreas Skov Olsen and Ferran Jutglà.
I have Benfica projected at -198, so I love the value on them to get a win in the first leg on the road at -120.
