Champions League Betting Odds & Projections: Our Best Bets, Featuring Barcelona-Inter and Rangers-Liverpool

The Champions League is back for Matchweek 4 on Tuesday and Wednesday for the reverse fixtures of what we saw last week.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through this latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate.

The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures, delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Barcelona vs. Inter

Cunningham: I thought Inter found their form against Barcelona and did a great job of not only sitting deep in a 5-3-2, but also playing out of the back with De Vrij and Skriniar. What Barcelona essentially did was: the front three would press high and Busquets would press up to cover the central midfielder, but the centerbacks consistently were able to play passes through the lines to the front two dropping deep, and then Inter would get it wide and attack Barcelona’s wing backs, who are not great defenders.

I mean, despite hold 70% possession, Barcelona were held to just seven shots and 0.6 xG. Maybe most important, Lewandowski was held to just one shot for the entire match.

Might I remind you that even if we go from the time Xavi took over Barcelona and compare them to what Inter have done, Barcelona are at +1.25 xGD per 90 minuted, while Inter are at a +1.31 xGD per 90 minutes. So then you factor in league strength and home field advantage, where Barcelona do get a pretty significant bump, but nowhere close to -250. 

Then they had a less than inspiring performance on Sunday. giving up 1.5 xG to Celta Vigo and are in a massive look ahead spot with El Clasico this weekend.

I only have Barcelona projected as a -130 favorite at home, so I love Inter +1.5 at -139 (BetRivers).

Pick: Inter +1.5 (-139)

Rangers vs. Liverpool

Dabbundo: Liverpool lost Luis Diaz to a long term injury in the 3-2 road loss to Arsenal on Sunday and now have a brutal sandwich spot with their Wednesday trip to Scotland to take on Rangers. The Reds have another high profile matchup on Sunday in the Premier League at home against Manchester City, and we could well see a somewhat rotated Reds lineup for this road trip to Glasgow. Rangers haven’t scored at all in the Champions League in the first three matches despite producing two expected goals. This is an all-in spot for Rangers in front of a raucous crowd at home, and the Reds have struggled mightily defensively away from Anfield this season.

Not only did the Reds concede more than four expected goals at Napoli to open the CL, but the Reds are winless (0-2-2) in four PL away matches and have conceded 6.7 xGA in those four matches. 

Liverpool created less than two non-penalty xG at home and asking them to get margin with a leaky defense is a big ask. I’ll take Rangers +1.5 at home. 

Pick: Rangers +1.5 (-140) (Caesars)

Our Best Bets from Tuesday

Copenhagen vs. Manchester City

Cunningham: Manchester City are in a big time look ahead spot with a match at Liverpool over the weekend. However, Pep Guardiola is consistent in these types of spots, very rarely playing a bunch of backups. 

Manchester City were in a similar spot last year. They had just blown out Club Brugge in Manchester, and they were in a look ahead spot with the Manchester Derby that following weekend. Guardiola rested De Bruyne & Ruben Dias, but that was it. Everyone else played. Plus, if you look at the group, they are three points ahead of Dortmund, and I know Pep will be thinking, "We need to win this match so we can seal up the group in Germany."

Manchester City absolutely destroyed Copenhagen last week. They took 30 shots and had 39 box entries, 59 touches in Copenhagen’s penalty area and 4.1 xG. They also only allowed Copenhagen to take two shots and have 35 touches in their final third. 

image via infogol.net.

Copenhagen also sacked their manager on September 20, so they are still trying to find themselves under a new manager. They've also been really bad defensively in the Danish Superliga, allowing 1.46 xG per 90 minutes. 

I actually have some value on City’s spread, so I am taking them -2.5 at +100 (Caesars).

Pick: Manchester City -2.5 (+100)

PSG vs. Benfica

Dabbundo: Benfica and Paris Saint-Germain played to a 1-1 draw in Portugal six days ago, and nothing has changed for me since then to suggest that the return fixture in Paris will play out much differently.

Benfica actually took the game to PSG in the first half and controlled parts of the possession and did a better job of winning the second balls in the midfield. In the second half, Benfica sat deeper and ceded possession to PSG in the final third but did a stellar job of defending the penalty area. Benfica have elite numbers in Portugal defensively, and that has translated to Europe thus far. They conceded just 2.4 xGA in their first eight matches in Portugal, and the two clubs combined for 2.1 xG in the first fixture.

A more conservative Benfica defensive approach will make things easier for PSG defensively, which has shown improvement in France as well. PSG have conceded 1.0 xG or less in eight of nine Ligue 1 matches and have averaged one xGA in the Champions League. 

I bet under 3.25 last week at the same number, and if anything is different, it’s likely to be a more conservative Benfica in their approach to this match. I’d play Under 3 at plus money or under 3.25 at -115 or better.

Pick: Under 3.25 (-115)