Champions League Best Bets
The Champions League is back for the round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Arsenal vs Porto and Dortmund vs PSV. Check out our Champions League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Champions League match, you can find them here.
| Arsenal Odds | -500 |
| Porto Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188o / +140u |
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Cunningham: Arsenal may have only created 0.09 xG from open play in the first meeting, but the ball was only in play for 51 minutes due to Porto constantly clearing the ball and fouling to try and disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm.
The problem is that consistently getting Arsenal into set piece opportunities is a very dangerous game to play. Arsenal had a couple of opportunities off of corners in the first leg and if Porto continually give them set piece opportunities because Arsenal had 10 corners in the match, the Gunners are eventually going to score one of them because they are an elite team on set pieces having already scored 18 in the Premier League this season.
The problem for Porto is can they repeat the same game plan here at the Emirates. They were basically perfect out of possession, defended set pieces brilliantly, and limited Arsenal to just 12 penalty box touches. Repeating that at the Emirates is a much different story because in their last road trip to an elite club in the Champions League they were pretty badly beaten by Barcelona giving up 21 shots and 1.8 expected goals.
With Porto sitting in a passive defensive block and trying to repeat the same game plan as last meeting, it’s going to create a very slow paced, grind it out type of match. The total is way too high considering how the first match went, so I love the value on the under.
Pick: Under 3 (-119 via bet365)
| Dortmund Odds | +105 |
| PSV Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188o / +140u |
Dabbundo: When you look at the underlying numbers from PSV’s first leg against Borussia Dortmund, the Dutch side better controlled midfield exchanges and passed through the Dortmund press. PSV had a higher pass completion rate, more penalty area touches and consistently found more opportunities to break into transition.
Both goals came from a bit of a nothing move — a great Donyell Malen finish was poor goalkeeping and a dodgy penalty awarded to PSV in the second half. Dortmund created most of the early chances but only managed three four shots and 0.4 xG after the 20th minute of the match in Eindhoven. PSV controlled the final 70 minutes and completed north of 80% of passes while holding Dortmund to just 73% themselves.
In some ways, PSV are better set up to play tactically as an underdog on the road because of their abilities to excel in transition. The onus will be on Dortmund to control the ball at home, but the transition defense and counterpress has been a major issue for Edin Terzic’s side all year long in the Bundesliga.
There’s not enough separating these two closely matched sides to warrant Dortmund being a near half goal favorite at home. I’d bet PSV to win or draw the second leg at -140 or better.
