We are through two match weeks of the Champions League with plenty of drama taking place in the second round of matches like Aston Villa pulling off a huge upset of Bayern Munich. There are some huge matches in match week three, headlined by Hansi Flick facing his old team Bayern Munich with Barcelona and a Champions League final rematch between Real Madrid and Dortmund.
There are 18 matches on the board today and tomorrow, s0 I'm here with my Champions League picks and predictions, including my best bets for soccer picks.
Champions League Picks and Predictions
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my Champions League predictions and best bets.
- Aston Villa vs. Bologna pick: Under 2.5
- Salzburg vs. Dinamo Zagreb pick: Dinamo Zagreb +0.5
- Young Boys vs. Inter pick: Inter -1.5
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Make sure to follow all of our Champions League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here.
My Aston Villa vs. Bologna Pick
- Aston Villa vs. Bologna odds: Aston Villa -175, Bologna+450, Draw +320
Bologna aren't the team that finished fifth in Serie A last year, but they aren't significantly different either. Losing Motta, star striker Joshua Zirkzee and their best defender, Riccardo Calafiori, has really hurt, and the team is struggling under the new manager.
Vincenzo Italiano did a masterful job with Fiorentina in Europe, bringing them to back to back Europa Conference League finals, and his style of play isn’t a whole lot different than what Bologna were already doing. He wants his teams to build out of the back in a 3-2 or 4-2 shape and Bologna are really good at getting the ball into the final third, but the problem is they aren’t able to create a lot of high quality chances. Through eight matches, they are only averaging 0.08 npxG per shot, which is the fourth-lowest average in Serie A.
That was the same problem for Italiano at Fiorentina because they had the lowest xG per shot in Serie A, oftentimes settling for shots from outside the box. With that low npxG per shots, Bologna are only averaging 1.00 npxG per 90 minutes. In fact, in their three most difficult matches this season against Napoli, Atalanta and Liverpool they have only scored one goal and created 1.3 expected goals in those three matches.
Aston Villa are going to play their usual high line and are likely going to be the one to try and control the match being at home. Their build up actually hasn’t been that good as of late because in their previous three matches before the one against Fulham this weekend, they had failed to create over one expected goal.
Champions League Pick: Under 2.5 (+105 via bet365)
My Salzburg vs. Dinamo Zagreb Prediction
- Salzburg vs. Dinamo Zagreb odds: Salzburg -143, Dinamo Zagreb +333, Draw +310
I am not sure that Salzburg should be this big of a favorite because things haven’t been going to well under Pep Lijnders.
They’ve been dominated in their opening two Champions League matches by Sparta Prague and Brest, which were supposed to be two of their easier Champions League matchups. In those two matches they conceded seven goals and 4.5 expected goals and their biggest problem is they’ve been exploited in transition one too many times.
This is maybe one of the least talented Salzburg teams that we’ve seen in the Champions League in a long time. They only have a +0.75 xGD in the Austrian Bundesliga and have gotten hammered in their two biggest matches domestically by Rapid Wein and Sturm Graz. On top of that they have five attacking players injured right now, so this isn't the best spot for them.
Dinamo Zagreb typically dominate possession domestically in Croatia, but they’ve now had the experience of playing two games where they aren’t controlling a majority of the possession. They were pretty impressive against Monaco in their previous match, with both of their goals coming as a result of transition breaks, which bodes well for this match.
I only have Salzburg projected at +131, so I like the value on Dinamo Zagreb +0.5 at +120.
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb +0.5 (+120 via Caesars)
My Champions League Pick for Young Boys vs. Inter Milan
- Young Boys vs. Inter Milan odds: Young Boys +650, Inter -264, Draw +375
Inter really should be able to dominate this match even though it’s on the road.
Inter went through a little bit of a rough patch over the course of two matches against Manchester City and AC Milan, but they’ve gotten things on back, winning four straight matches.
The reason Simon Inzaghi’s side has been so good over the past few years is because they are one of the most versatile tactical sides in the world. In Serie A, they play a lot of teams that will concede possession to them and force them to break them down. Inter are so good at overloading certain areas of the pitch to open up space. Over the last three seasons, they are averaging over two expected goals per 90 minutes against teams in the bottom half of the Serie A table.
Young Boys might just be the worst team in the Champions League. They are still struggling domestically in the Swiss Super League, as they are sitting in eighth place and have only won two total matches this season. The biggest problem has been their defense. They are allowing 1.77 xG per 90 minutes in the 16th-most difficult league in Europe based on UEFA coefficients. Typically when teams in these types of lower leagues struggle domestically that doesn’t bode well when they have to face elite competition in the Champions League. They have played Aston Villa and Barcelona so far and conceded eight goals, 5.4 expected goals and 41 shots.
What has been pretty clear from the first few games for Young Boys is they are trying to play aggressively out of possession, pressing teams high up the pitch, but they are consistently getting exploited. Then once they fall behind they are being even more aggressive trying to get back into the match, which is why you are seeing them continually losing by multiple goals.
I have Inter’s spread projected at -1.9, so I like the value on Inter -1.5 at +105.
Champions League Prediction: Inter -1.5 (+105 via Caesars)
