The Champions League returns for the knockout round and there are going to be loads of different bets you can make. This article will focus on the anytime goal scorer, which can have some value if you are looking for the right things.
Expected goals created per 90 minutes of play will be vital. Expected Goals measure the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored by using information on similar shots in the past. So, it's a much better indicator to show how many goals a player should be scoring, as opposed to how many goals they've actually scored. Using this you can identify players that are on poor finishing runs in front of net despite getting a lot of high quality chances, which can create value on a certain player.
The second tip is shots per 90 minutes. It's always important to bet on a player who is getting a good volume of shots each time out. Strikers are obviously going to be the favorites to score because they are getting a good volume of shots, but sometimes other guys on the team get a decent volume.
My third tip is knowing the style of play of your opponent has out of possession. Are they an aggressive high pressing team? Do they sit in a passive low block? These are the questions you have to answer if you are betting the goal scorer market.
Champions League Goal Scorer Predictions
Loïs Openda – RB Leipzig (+162 via bet365)
Openda is RB Leipzig's main scorer this year after coming over from Lens. He's already scored 19 goals between the Champions League and Bundesliga, while getting great elite shot production at 4.20 shots per 90 minutes. He's also the perfect type of striker to give Real Madrid a lot of problems. He's got incredible pace on the break to get in behind the opposing defense. Real Madrid are going to have to play a second choice center back pairing, so he has a great chance to score a goal similar to the one he scored against Manchester City in the group stage.
LOÏS OPENDA WASTED NO TIME. ⚡
A dream start to the second half for RB Leipzig to level it against Man City. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/9xrs9Hr11d
— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 4, 2023
The other benefit working in Openda's favor is he is the main penalty taker for RB Leipzig, which again is big with Real Madrid being on a second choice center back pairing.
Harry Kane – Bayern Munich (+100 via bet365)
This might feel like the squarest play on the board, but given how good Kane's underlying metrics have been, I actually think this price is quite low.
He is currently at a 0.88 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, which is one of the best marks across Europe. Kane is getting 4.02 shots per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga, which is more than he ever averaged for Tottenham.
The Lazio defense has been fine in Serie A, but scoring has been way down in Italy. If you take their performances against some of the better teams in Italy it shows a picture of a passive team that can't defend elite attacks.
Just take a look at their recent matches against Atalanta and Inter along with getting shredded to bits by Feyenoord during the group stage.
Lazio are also going to try and build out of the back against Bayern's elite high press, which will allow Kane a couple of transition opportunities off of high turnovers.
