Juventus look for their third straight victory in the Champions League when they host Stuttgart at the Allianz Stadium.
Juventus are off to a great start under Thiago Motta, sitting in third place in the Serie A table trailing league leaders Napoli by only three points. They had a crazy victory over RB Leipzig in their previous Champions League match, coming from behind to win 3-2 while also being down a man. A third win to begin their campaign would be massive for their chances at finishing inside the top eight of the league phase.
Vfb Stuttgart are coming off a thumping at the hands of Bayern Munich over the weekend and now have dropped into ninth place in the Bundesliga table. They lost their opening Champions League match to Real Madrid and then drew Sparta Prague 1-1, so they will be desperate for any type of result in this match.
Read on for my Juventus vs. Stuttgart prediction ahead of their Champions League fixture.
Juventus vs. Stuttgart Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Juventus Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -115 | 2.5 -135o / +105u | -115 |
| Stuttgart Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -115 | 2.5 -135o / +105u | +310 |
- Juventus vs. Stuttgart moneyline odds: Juventus -115, Stuttgart +310, Draw +280
- Juventus vs. Stuttgart over/under: 2.5 goals (over -135, under +105)
- Juventus vs. Stuttgart pick: Juventus ML
I am backing the Juventus ML in Stuttgart vs. Juventus.
Juventus Preview
The question with this match for Juventus is how effective is their build up against Stuttgart’s press. They had the benefit of playing up a man against Lazio over the weekend and ended up holding almost 70% possession, but they were only able to create 1.5 expected goals.
One big problem that Juventus are going to have for the rest of the season is how do they replace their best defender Bremer? He is their best ball stopper and aerial winner and he often inverts into the midfield when Juventus are in possession. Even with him out, Juventus are still one of the better low block defending teams in the world. So far through eight Serie A matches they have not conceded a non-penalty goal and have allowed a total of 3.2 expected goals.
That is not surprising given the defensive set up Motta had with Bologna. Like Allegri, Motta doesn’t really believe in pressing opponents high and instead looks to set his team up in a good defensive shape with the aim of limiting opponents to the lowest quality shots possible. Vfb Stuttgart are very similar to RB Leipzig in the fact that they like to play very vertical and attempt a lot of line breaking passes and through balls to open up the defense.
In possession, Motta’s build up structure is quite interesting, as he is a big believer in relationism, which is essentially positionless football, trying to get as many players close to the ball to ensure you always are, overloading the opposition through each phase of build up. It's been effective because Juventus have the best buildup completion percentage in Serie A, per markstats.
Stuttgart Preview
Vfb Stuttgart may have lost their opening match to Real Madrid, but they hammered the defending champions in their own building for the first 30 minutes of the match. That is because Stuttgart have been difficult to face in Germany because of the variability in how they set up tactically.
Stuttgart use a ton of different build up formations depending on the opponent they are going to face. When they are building up from deep they are often using a 4-2-4 shape with the two forwards dropping deep to pull the opposing center backs with them to create an over the top ball to the wingers, who are making inverted runs.
They are very aggressive in their passing. Last season they attempted the most through balls of anyone in the Bundesliga and they are constantly making line-breaking passes to open up the defense. Those line-breaking passes are often used as one touch combination passes with the forwards to eventually get the striker in through behind the back line for an attempt on goal. It’s been very effective because since the start of last season, Stuttgart have completed the most through balls of anyone in the Bundesliga.
The biggest concern for Stuttgart right now is their defense. Through their first five Bundesliga matches they have conceded in each one of them and are allowing 1.55 xG per 90 minutes. They lost their two starting center backs from last year's team, Waldemar Anton and Hiroki Ito, and they haven't done a good job at replacing them. They’ve played against two elite teams in Real Madrid and Bayern Munich and those matches haven’t gone well defensively, allowing a total of six expected goals against those two sides.
Juventus vs. Stuttgart Prediction
This is a fascinating tactical battle because these two teams play completely different styles. In my opinion, this match sets up way better for Juventus to capitalize on Stuttgart's aggressiveness. Most teams in the Bundesliga press high and play a very aggressive high line so Stuttgart's aggressive passing when in possession tends to work more often than not.
Juventus are one of the most passive teams they will see all season long. They are going to sit so deep that Stuttgart aren't going to be able to complete those aggressive passes because there is going to be no space to do so. In addition to that, Stuttgart's high press has been exploited against some of the elite teams they have faced. Bayern had a 91% build up completion percentage against Stuttgart over the weekend, which doesn't bode well for their chances at turning Juventus over in their own end of the pitch.
Even if Bremer is out, this line is too short on Juventus given how well they’ve played so far this season and how bad Stuttgart have been on the road in their two matches against Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. I have Juventus projected at -155, so I like the value on them at -115.
