Lazio vs Celtic Odds
| Lazio Odds | -188 |
| Celtic Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Lazio will be hosting Celtic in this week’s Champions League matchup. A win could potentially see Lazio claim their spot in the knockout rounds of this season’s competition. A loss for Celtic will see them lose any chance of advancing.
The Italian side currently sits second in Group E on seven points and is coming off of a 1-0 win against Feyenoord a few weeks ago. Lazio have not seen the same success in Serie A, as they sit in 11th on just 17 points through their first 13 matches.
Celtic have shown some fight in their group stage matches, yet they sit bottom of the group with just a single point. They have conceded the second0most goals in the entire stage with 12 in their four matches. However, they have been dominant in the Scottish Premiership with 36 points in their 14 matches so far.
Let’s get into how I see this matchup playing out and how to bet Lazio vs Celtic.
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Lazio
Lazio have been nothing more than a mid-table side in the Serie A this season. They currently sit 11th and are bang average in a lot of their underlying metrics. They are 10th in xG, ninth in xGA and ninth in high turnovers. They are where they deserve to be in Serie A, but what is letting them down the most is their form away from home.
They have picked up 11 points in their seven matches at home this season, while they have only picked up six points in their seven matches away from home. It is a massive boost for their knockout round hopes that they will be facing Celtic at home in this one. They have actually been one of the best defensive sides in all of Europe at the Stadio Olimpico.
Lazio have only conceded four times on 3.9 xGA at home in their 7 league matches. This defensive efficiency has translated to their Champions League matches, only conceding 0.9 xGA to Atlético Madrid and just 1.4 to Feyenoord. Those are two very solid sides that are playing at a high level, and Lazio were able to neutralize a lot of what they do well going forward.
The only concern for Lazio in this match is they have picked up a few injuries over the last week. Romagnoli and Casale, two of their primary center backs, are likely out for this matchup, as well as Rovella being questionable and Vecino picking up a suspension. That is two of their backline and two solid midfielders. They will likely start their typical midfield three of Guendouzi, Cataldi and Alberto, as well as Patric and Gila in the back.
Celtic
Brendan Rodgers and this Celtic side have dominated the Scottish Premiership, winning 11 and drawing three of their 14 matches. The Champions League has not seen them have the same fortune, only picking up one point in their four matches.
Celtic are comfortable in possession, but they are not used to playing that way against some of the best sides in Europe. In their four Champions League matches this year, they have created xG tallies of 0.3, 1.1, 0.9 and 0.0. There is no surprise they sit rock bottom of Group E with these types of creative numbers.
They have also been dreadful in their matches away from home in this group stage. They have not scored, conceded eight goals and have created 0.15 xG/90 in those two matches. I expect this to continue in this match because of the defensive quality of Lazio at home, as well as the offensive deficiencies of this Celtic side.
They also have injuries to some key players in this side that will certainly impact their quality going forward. One of their top attacking-minded players, Daizen Maeda, picked up a suspension and an injury in their last group stage match against Atlético Madrid, so he will not be available for selection. Hatate and Palma, two of their more creative players, are also unavailable for this match. Celtic have to win this match to have any chance of advancing to the knockout stage or the Europa League, but with all of these injuries it is looking unlikely.
Lazio vs Celtic
Prediction
Lazio have started off this season as one of the best defensive sides at home, and I expect this to continue against a Celtic forward line that looks lost even when at full strength. Without some of their top players going forward, I do not expect many big chances created by this Celtic side.
They do have to win this match, so they will be going for it, but they Lazio will be desperate to win this one as a win could potentially see them officially through to the knockout stage of this season’s Champions League.
In this match, I will be taking the under. In their nine matches at home this season, Lazio have gone under 2.5 goals in 8 of them. I see slight value, but also like the spot at home. I could also see Lazio’s moneyline being a good parlay piece as they are the better side, especially at the Stadio Olimpico.
