The Champions League single group stage is ending, and although the stakes are quite different for PSV Eindhoven and Liverpool on this last matchday, one result would leave both teams content: a draw.
But will they seek that? Let's see how they could approach this game scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET at Philips Stadium in Eindhoven, Netherlands.
Here is my Liverpool vs. PSV prediction and Champions League odds for today's match.
Liverpool vs. PSV Prediction, Pick, Champions League Odds
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +115 | 3.5 115o / -155u | +130 |
| PSV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -170 | 3.5 115o / -155u | +185 |
- Liverpool vs. PSV Moneyline odds: Liverpool +130, Draw +265, PSV +185
- Liverpool vs. PSV Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over +115, Under -155)
- Liverpool vs. PSV Pick: Liverpool Moneyline (+130)
I am backing Liverpool to win in the Liverpool vs. PSV Eindhoven match.
Liverpool Prediction
This new format has seen some big teams falter and recover, with the likes of Real Madrid and Manchester City praising this new idea and remaining in the mix regardless of their early woes (24 teams instead of the previous 16 qualify for the next stage). But Liverpool is not one of them. They are already through to playoffs and have dominated from the start of Champions League play. They have won all seven Champions League matches, scoring 15 goals and only conceding two.
Which brings us to the actual weight of today's match. Liverpool has secured at least second place, and the top two spots guarantee home advantage for the rest of the tournament and the supposedly easiest route against lower seeds while never facing the other top side (1st or 2nd) until the final.
With a draw (or a Barcelona loss), the Reds will retain the top spot in the standings, but the truth is there's not much difference — aside from a better money prize — between finishing first or second. Manager Arne Slot will likely consider rotating and resting players who are set to endure a tough couple of weeks, with a challenging visit to Bournemouth on Saturday in the Premier League and the need to turn around a 1-0 score on the second leg of the EFL Cup semifinal against Tottenham next Thursday.
Liverpool's leaders in minutes played are Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah and Ryan Gravenberch. Any one of those — even all three — could be rested today. Nevertheless, Liverpool has enough depth and could compensate with an energy boost from the players who get the chance to start and show their worth.
PSV Prediction
PSV's 1988 European Cup title is a faded memory, but the Dutch side is taking advantage of this new format and is one point away from getting into the next round. Currently sitting 19th, Eindhoven has recovered from a rough start — one loss and two draws against top sides Juventus, Sporting and PSG — and won three of their last four matches.
Deciding their fate at home is important since they have fared way better at Philips Stadium in this Champions League edition, with two wins and a draw, scoring eight goals scored for only three conceded. However, even if they lose this game, they could still grab a top-24 berth if they avoid a thrashing, which Liverpool has been known to provide this season on a regular basis.
Instead of seeing an all-out attack like PSV displays in the Eredivisie — 65 goals in 20 games, 23 more than the second-best scoring side — we will probably witness a careful calculation of odds, possible rivals and final goal difference as the game goes on. To dare Liverpool would be foolish, but to wait for them to attack could be even worse.
Expect PSV to try to slow the tempo and muddle the action as much as possible.
Liverpool vs. PSV Pick
Liverpool and PSV lead their respective leagues and display an enthralling attacking style. This may turn out to be a shootout, although the stakes might force them to play cautiously in the final minutes to avoid a loss or possible injuries.
Goal differential is also a major factor in determining positions, which matters more to PSV than Liverpool, so the home team might try to disrupt the pace if the results from other matches are enough for them to not only go through but secure a decent ranking.
Look for the Reds to strike first and strike hard, so there is no need to worry about the rest.
Liverpool vs. PSV Pick: Liverpool to win
