Man City vs. Sevilla Odds
| Man City Odds | -375 |
| Sevilla Odds | +950 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+105 / -145) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City welcome Sevilla to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday for the final group stage match for the clubs in the Champions League.
City enter the finale with the top spot in Group G already secured with 11 points due to owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Borussia Dortmund.
Meanwhile, the Spanish side does not have the advantage over the German club, but Sevilla will have a chance to continue playing in Europe this season by earning a spot in the Europa League.
This is a game between sides that have their fates wrapped up. However, I do see a bet with great value in this fixture.
No Stopping City
Manager Pep Guardiola’s team has been dominant in the group stages once again, with the Cityzens one of only four clubs who are still undefeated in the competition.
The advanced metrics also paint this picture, with City owning the best xGDiff (+8.7) and allowing the fewest expected goals (2.8) in the UCL, according to fbref.com.
Guardiola will be missing one of his key pieces for this match, with star striker Erling Haaland out with an injury.
This would mean Julián Álvarez should get the start up front, and with Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and İlkay Gündoğan all supporting him, City will have more than enough firepower without Haaland.
Symphony of Disappointment for Sevilla
If you looked at all of the disappointing teams in Europe, there likely isn’t a squad that has failed to meet expectations as badly as Sevilla have.
The Spanish club only has the lone win over FC Copenhagen in this tournament and finds itself in the relegation zone in La Liga.
The horrible start led to a change at manager, with former boss Jorge Sampaoli returning to the club for his second stint.
It might be a bit early to tell how much of a difference he has made since he was hired, but Sevilla hasn’t seen as much of the new-manager bounce as it like would have hoped for.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When I look at the odds over at BetMGM, the home side is listed as the heavy -375 favorite on the money line, while the total is set at 3.5 goals. You have to get creative if you want to back City here, but there is a bet with much better value.
With that said, my best bet is for the Cityzens to Win to Nil at +115.
Teams don’t have a whole lot of success in creating many chances when they make the trip to the Etihad Stadium this season. In eight games in all competitions, Guardiola’s team is holding opponents to an average of 0.525 expected goals and 1.125 big scoring chances per 90 minutes.
This doesn’t bode well for a Sevilla side that has averaged just 0.829 xG per game under Sampaoli. Meanwhile, this mark drops to 0.5 expected goals per match on the road since he became manager.
Another negative for the visitors is the scheduling spot for this match, with the Seville Derby coming up this Sunday. This is always one of the biggest rivalries in all of Europe, which could mean Sampaoli saves starters for that game at the weekend.
With this fixture not meaning much in terms of qualification to the knockout stages or Europa League, you will want to wait until lineups are announced to make any bets as this could be a rotated squad for City. As long as most of the regular defense and midfield is in the lineup, we should have a great opportunity to cash this ticket.
The Pick: Manchester City – Win to Nil (+115)
