Napoli vs Braga Odds
| Napoli Odds | -223 |
| Braga Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Napoli look to book their spot in the round of 16 of the Champions League when they host Braga.
This situation is pretty simple here for Napoli. They just need a draw and they are moving on to the round of 16. In fact, as long as they do not lose this match by multiple goals, they will be in the knockout stage. However, they have been in pretty bad form recently, losing three straight matches to Real Madrid, Inter and Juventus.
Braga are in flying form right now domestically, winning six of their last seven matches. They are one point off Benfica for third place. They lost this match against Napoli in Portugal on the opening day of the group stage, but were very competitive and had a shot go off the post in the 95th minute that could have equalized that match. To get to the round of 16 they need to win this match by multiple goals, so they are going to have to play very aggressively.
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Napoli
Napoli have regressed and are simply not the team we saw last season. Take a look at their underlying performances in this Champions League as an example. We're five matches in, they've played Union Berlin twice and still have a -0.3 xGD.
The loss of Kim-Min Jae at center back has been pretty drastic for Napoli’s ability to defend opposing strikers. They are currently seventh in npxG allowed, when last season they were near the top. What is boils down to is they are just not as good defending in transition as they were last season.
There is also the manager conundrum that going on. Luciano Spalletti is now managing the Italian national team, Rudi Garica has been sacked and Walter Mazzari is now the manager. He is who brought Napoli back to prominence many years ago, but he is essentially the Italian equivalent of Roy Hodgson. He’s traditionally has had his teams play out of a 3-5-2, but so far with Napoli he’s kept them in the same 4-3-3 principles.
The offensive numbers are still incredibly good for Napoli. They are second in npxG and first in shots per 90 minutes. Kvaratskhelia and Osimhen production numbers have not dropped off one bit, but their last two performances against Inter and Juventus have been less than inspiring, putting up less than one expected goal in each match.
In fact, there has been a pretty drastic difference in Napoli's offensive performances against the bottom half of the Serie A table compared to when they have to play teams in the top half.
| Against | xGF per 90 minutes |
| Bottom Half of the Table | 2.04 |
| Top Half of the Table | 1.31 |
Braga
The first match between these two was actually pretty even. Napoli won the match 2-1, but xG was only 1.7 to 1.4 in favor of Napoli. However, Braga had 16 box entries and xThreat of 1.90.
They also did a great job disrupting Napoli’s build up play, holding them to a 81% build completion percentage, which is one of their lowest of the season.
Braga 1 : 2 Napoli
▪ xG: 0.95 – 1.78
▪ xThreat: 1.9 – 1.82
▪ Possession: 53.3% – 46.7%
▪ Field Tilt: 51.8% – 48.2%
▪ Def Action Height: 42.9 – 41.1#msbot_ucl#uclpic.twitter.com/nd3scwoLe9— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) September 20, 2023
Braga play out of a 4-4-2, building out of the back and largely relying on long sustained possession. The way they create chances is by circulating the ball from side to side. Braga have completed the most crosses of anyone in Portugal into the penalty area, which will work well here against Napoli, who are are 14th in Serie A in crosses allowed in the penalty area.
They have a lot of talent in their attack that can give Napoli problems again. Abel Ruiz, Ricardo Horta, Bruma and Álvaro Djaló are all averaging over 0.35 xG + xA per 90 minutes domestically, which is why Braga are averaging 2.0 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
Out of possession, Braga are most likely going to play a very dangerous high line, which could get them burned, but given the fact that Napoli only needs a draw here, I find it hard to believe that they are going to take a lot of chances in possession.
Napoli vs Braga
Prediction
These types of matches are truly great betting opportunities where we have a big favorite, who only need a draw to get to the knockout round. When betting these types of matches it's important to know the style of play and characteristics of the big favorite. Napoli by nature are a slow, possession-based build out of the back team. They are going to try and hold the ball to drain the life out of Braga.
Even though Braga have to play very aggressively, they were really good once they fell behind Napoli in the first meeting. They've been one of the best teams at disrupting Napoli's build up this season and have dangerous attackers that can cause Napoli all sorts of problems in transition.
Given the fact that Napoli really only need to lose this match by one goal, I don't see a scenario given how slow they are in possession where they attack aggressively over and over again.
I only have Napoli projected at -122, so I like the value on Braga +1 at +112.
