PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
| PSG Odds | -118 |
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +187 |
PSG and Dortmund meet in Germany for a massive match with a ton at stake.
It's pretty simple for PSG. Win against Dortmund and they will have won the group. If thet lose or draw, they leave the door wide open to potentially get knocked down to the Europa League. They dominated Dortmund in Paris in the opening match of the group stage and there really isn't any reason why they can't do it again.
Dortmund's season is truly a puzzling one. In the Bundesliga they have been incredibly poor against all of the top teams, but they come to the Champions League and have two wins over Dortmund and their last win against AC Milan booked them a spot in the knockout round. If they can just manage a draw in this match, they will have won the group.
PSG
To say PSG were unlucky in their last Champions League match against Newcastle would be an understatement.
PSG 1 : 1 Newcastle
▪ xG: 5.2 – 0.99
▪ xThreat: 3.24 – 0.65
▪ Possession: 72.1% – 27.9%
▪ Field Tilt: 84.5% – 15.5%
▪ Def Action Height: 53.7 – 40.4#msbot_ucl#uclpic.twitter.com/hn28HqDX4T— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) November 28, 2023
That match against Newcastle was a good lesson in what you cannot do against PSG. Newcastle went ahead early and due to their injury crisis along with the fixture pile up they were not able to deploy their ruthless high press that caused PSG so many problems at St. James Park. Instead they sat in a 4-5-1 low block and gave one of the best build up teams in the world time and space on the ball and got destroyed.
Luis Enrique puts a massive amount of value on controlling matches and possession. The only teams that have given them trouble are ones who can disrupt their build up play, Dortmund are not one of those teams.
In Ligue 1 this season, PSG are averaging 65.3% possession, average 23.7 10-plus pass sequences per match and have one of the longest sequence times in Europe's big five leagues.
Out of possession, PSG have drastically improved because of how good their counter pressing has been when they lose the ball, as they have an 8.7 PPDA and have forced the third-most high turnovers in Ligue 1 this season. Dortmund saw firsthand how good their counter-pressing was in the first meeting, as PSG forced nine high turnovers and had a PPDA of 6.7.
The front three of Mbappe, Kolo Muani and Dembele have been incredibly deadly during this Champions League, as they're combining for 1.33 xG per 90 minutes.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund have truly been a puzzling team this season. Their underlying numbers in Germany are pretty good, but they have been incredibly poor against good competition. They have played Bayern Munich, Leverkusen. Stuttgart and RB Leipzig this season and have a -8.1 expected goal differential in those matches.
The reason they are failing when they step up in competition is because their defense is bad both sitting in a low block and in transition. In the Bundesliga they are allowing 1.80 xG per 90 minutes, which is 14th in the Bundesliga. The reason for that is because they don't have any elite ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch like they did last year with Jude Bellingham. Emre Can is the only midfielder averaging over 3.5 tackles + Interceptions per 90 minutes.
Because of that once teams are getting into Dortmund's final third they are essentially walking into the penalty. They have a 34.4% final third to box entry conversion rate, which is terrible considering they are facing one of the best teams in the world at breaking down low blocks.
In the previous meeting in Paris they allowed PSG to dominate possession, tilt the field on them and had no answer going forward in transition as it was one way traffic for the entire match. With Dortmund only needing a draw they are likely going to sit in a low defensive block and try to keep PSG out of their net, which doesn't work when you give them time and space on the ball.
PSG vs Borussia Dortmund
Prediction
It's really quite shocking that Dortmund have already booked their place in the round of 16 and have shot to win the group of death.
Quite frankly though, I really don't see a path to them getting even a point from this match. They have shown time and time again against elite competition that they cannot defend for a majority of the match in a low block. Do you realize how terrible your defense has to be to be allowing 1.80 xG per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga?
PSG are going to dominate possession, they are are going to tilt the field on Dortmund, and they are going to constantly invade their penalty box, while creating a boat load of chances. Then when Dortmund does eventually win the ball, they are going to have to send it long and hope for the best because they are not good enough to build out of the back against PSG's counter-press.
So, I like the value on PSG on the moneyline at -110.
