We are back with some Champions League Tuesday predictions for match day 3. Paris Saint-Germain host Dutch side PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday.
PSG are currently first in Ligue 1, and have been mightily impressive on the domestic stage, racking up 25 goals scored for only 8 conceded in. This success however, has not translated to the Champions League where they 19th with 3 points.
PSV have been even more impressive to start the season and are in red-hot form in the league with 9 wins from 9 games. Similarly to PSG, PSV has struggled in their first two Champions League games, with a 3-1 defeat to Juventus and a 1-1 draw with Sporting Lisbon.
Here is my PSG vs. PSV Eindhoven prediction.
PSG vs. PSV Eindhoven Odds, Picks, Prediction
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -270 | 2.5 -245o / +194u | -270 |
| PSV Eindhoven Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +200 | 2.5 -245o / +194u | +650 |
- PSG vs. PSV Eindhoven moneyline odds: PSG -270, PSV +650, Draw +420
- PSG vs. PSV Eindhoven over/under: 2.5 goals (over -245, under +194)
- PSG vs. PSV Eindhoven pick: Under 3.5
I am backing the under 3.5 in PSV Eindhoven vs. PSG.
PSG Preview
PSG and the Champions League is not a love story – far from it. The French giants have continuously disappointed despite the millions invested in superstars such as Lionel Messi, Neymar Jr. and Kylian Mbappé. This season, however, PSG have restructured their roster, but their fortunes seem destined for the same outcome as this new crop of players have yet to convince in the competition with a 2-0 loss to Arsenal.
Their 1-0 win over Girona on match day 1 was lackluster to say the least, ending in a 90th-minute own goal from the Girona goalkeeper. The team is walking on water in Ligue 1 and if it all clicks they have shown how good they can be. Their wingers Ousmane Dembelé and Bradley Barcola allow for the team to move quickly down the wing and challenge defenders in 1v1 situations.
The Parc des Princes has turned into a fortress and PSG intend on keeping it that way. The Parisians have lost just one of their last 37 home games in the group/league phase of the tournament, scoring at least one goal in each of those last 26 games. Against Arsenal, however, they registered only two shots on goal. PSG know that if they want to finish in the top nine, they will have to start scoring and winning games, which will be much harder against Atletico Madrid, Man City and Bayern.
PSV Eindhoven Preview
PSV will be missing some important players for this clash. Jerdy Schouten got injured this weekend, and he will be dearly missed by his teammates in the midfield, along with Joey Veerman and Rick Karsdorp. Schouten is instrumental to PSV, even scoring a long-range shot against Sporting to get his team their sole point in the Champions League.
They missed some crucial chances to win that game with double the expected goals of the Portuguese team. PSV usually line up in a 4-3-3 and look to break away on the wings through quick wingers like Johan Bakayoko and get the ball in the box to utilize center-forward Luuk De Jong's heading ability, and he will likely look to do the same against PSG, who conceded a header to Kai Havertz. PSG's keeper Gianluigi Donnaruma notoriously struggles to deal with aerial balls, either from crosses or set pieces.
Peter Bosz's team has only won one of their previous 18 away games in the Champions League group/league phase, with five draws and 12 losses. Trying to win away at PSG will prove difficult, but I can see them getting a goal in a draw or narrow win or loss.
PSG vs. PSV Eindhoven Prediction
These are two teams that have cruised through their domestic leagues so far, and with both winning over the weekend, 4-2 for PSG and 2-1 for PSV. Yet, this form has not carried through, meaning they both need to get some points on the board.
PSG at home have proven to be very hard to beat, and after their loss to Arsenal they will be looking to secure this one and not let PSV get many chances. With Bradley Barcola's form, I could see the 22-year old scoring considering he is PSG's main threat up front.
A PSV loss would pretty much signal the end of their European journey. I think they will look to not concede rather than score. Looking ahead, this is easily one of their worst matchups, and if they can avoid a loss, PSV can pick up some wins against weaker opponents.
