Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt Odds
Here's our Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt pick with a UFC 300 prediction for Saturday, April 13
Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt marks an unprecedented beginning to a pay-per-view preliminary card as two former champions in their relative peak will meet in the night’s first bout.
After Figueiredo’s two-year saga with Brandon Moreno came to a conclusion, the former 125-pound flyweight king decided to make the move up to the 135-pound bantamweight division.
His UFC 300 opponent, Garbrandt, didn’t enter the UFC octagon in 2022, but he racked up two consecutive victories in 2023 after reentering the bantamweight class himself.
Tale of the Tape
| Figueiredo | Garbrandt | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-3-1 | 14-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:08 | 9:45 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1987 | 7/7/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.08 | 3.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.46 | 3.91 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.65 | 1.10 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 34% |
| TD Def | 58% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 1.6 | 0.0 |
For Figueiredo’s first venture into the bantamweight division, he was tasked with a world-class opponent in Rob Font, and the proceedings answered many questions about his future.
While it was only one fight, the December contest's outcome provides an abundance of information that can be applied to coming fights. Figueiredo carried his speed, power, and cardio from flyweight into his three-round bout with Font.
FIGUEIREDO WOBBLED FONT 😲 #UFCAUSTINpic.twitter.com/HhoNCxtrCD
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) December 3, 2023
Figueiredo is unlikely to win many fights with his volume, but after stinging Font on several occasions, it’s clear he will be the one who lands the more damaging shots. They'll also be the ones that get a reaction from the crowd, and more importantly, the judges.
Interestingly, Font came out with the footwork of a fighter who wanted to pressure his opponent. It was Figueiredo backing up for most of the early going, which allowed him to change levels and implement his grappling when Font overcommitted.
When the tides turned, Figueiredo was on his front foot in spurts throughout the fight, it was evident as he increased his volume and looked to inflict damage in combinations.
I do not expect Garbrandt to be the one pressuring in this fight. He has the wrestling acumen to keep the fight standing throughout. I’d also be surprised if he's as easily thrown off-balance when striking as Font was when Figueiredo was able to get him to the mat.
Regardless, Garbrandt will be highly susceptible to Figueiredo's powerful counters. And anytime we see Figueiredo burst into attack mode, it could spell serious trouble for Garbrandt.
Cody Garbrandt still has power in his hands. Any shot he catches Figgy?
pic.twitter.com/IEkiJqjaho— Liam Picks Fights (@LiamPicksFights) April 10, 2024
Figueiredo’s check left hook is one of the fastest and most powerful in the sport. If Garbrandt is going to fight from the outside behind his jab, he is almost certain to eat one of these on Saturday evening.
If Garbrandt uses a similar approach to when he knocked out Brian Kelleher at UFC 296, it will also put him in harm's way. Kelleher was the aggressor in that fight and used his footwork to repeatedly back up Garbrandt.
Garbrandt answered with lightning-fast combinations as Kelleher came into the pocket. The problem with that approach? In this spot against Figueiredo, Garbrandt will not be able to survive a firefight he is almost certain to ignite by throwing three- and four-punch combinations.
For Garbrandt to get his hand raised on Saturday, he is going to have to be surgical and measured in his attack. And he will likely have to escape danger often by just an inch or two as Figueiredo's attacks with his powerful counters. If Figueiredo decides he wants to attack Cody’s lead leg at range early in the bout with calf kicks, it could limit some of the movement advantage Garbrandt might possess in this fight, and if that happens, I do not see a path in which Cody isn’t caught with a big punch that puts the lights out.
Figueiredo vs. Garbrandt Pick
Deiveson Figueiredo took some of Rob Font's best shots flush on the chin and walked through them with little effect. If he is moving forward and varying his attack, I cannot envision a fight in which Cody Garbrandt’s durability isn’t tested on multiple occasions.
It is simply a matter of time until Figueiredo lands the type of strike that puts Garbrandt in danger, and as we saw in his fight against Font, that type of strike can come as late as Round 3.
As somebody who looks to grab value on underdogs whenever the moneyline price is right, I cannot recommend siding with Garbrandt given his lack of durability against somebody as dangerous as Figueiredo.
I'm going to play Figueiredo two ways. In addition to betting him to win inside the distance (-105), I'm also going to bet him to specifically by Round 1 or 2 KO.
The Picks: Deiveson Figueiredo by Finish (-105 at DraftKings) | Figueiredo by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 (+270 at FanDuel)
