If you've been following along with our PDC Home Tour Darts coverage, you know what our basic strategy is for the early part of this first-of-its-kind event. Given the unfamiliar environment and format for this tournament– the players are at home, play is sometimes interrupted by phone calls and the matches are short — it seems unwise to back big favorites.
The PDC Home Tour has not been kind to players in the top-10. So far we've seen four members of the PDC's top-10 play in the Home Tour and none of them have advanced to Round 2. Michael "Bully Boy" Smith was the latest big name to fall as the World No. 5 dropped his opening match and left the door open for Martijn Kleermaker to win Group 9. So far only two favorites, Dave Chisnall and Jonny Clayton, have taken top honors in their respective groups.
Nathan Aspinall, the No. 7 player in the world according to the PDC Order of Merit, will look to end the top-10 voodoo on Sunday as the odds-on favorite to win Group 10.
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PDC Home Tour Night 10 Betting Odds and Picks
Sunday, April 26 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 7 Nathan Aspinall (-177)
- No. 44 Ryan Joyce (+350)
- No. 65 Simon Stevenson (+500)
- No. 116 Steve Brown (+700)
- Nathan Aspinall (-455) v Steve Brown (+300)
- Ryan Joyce (-177) v Simon Stevenson (+135)
- Steve Brown (+125) v Simon Stevenson (-162)
- Nathan Aspinall (-250) v Ryan Joyce (+188)
- Ryan Joyce (-240) v Steve Brown (+180)
- Simon Stevenson (+220) v Nathan Aspinall (-305)
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If this was tournament was taking place under more normal circumstances I'd have no problem with "The Asp" being this short. The 28-year-old former accountant has enjoyed a meteoric rise over the past few years and he was in terrific form in 2020 before the PDC halted play. Aspinall owns a 96.38 average over the past year and has trousered over a half-million pounds in that span.
While none of the other three competitors in Group 10 come close to Aspinall in terms of talent, form or stats, the Home Tour has shown us that every game is much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest. Aspinall may cruise, but he's won major trophies already in his career, so I don't know if "The Asp" will be fully engaged for this tournament.
Winning the group may not do much for Aspinall, but the rest of the players in the set will relish the opportunity to take down one of the game's best players. The Asp's main competition in Group 10 is "Relentless" Ryan Joyce, the 44th-ranked player in the PDC currently.
Joyce is an absolute joy to root for on most occasions. Not only does he look like he could star in an off-broadway adaptation of The Big Lebowski, but he plays fast and always seems to be smiling. On his day, Joyce can hang with the big boys. He already owns a couple of wins over Aspinall in his career and his 93.64 average in the past 12 months is nothing to scoff at.
Backing Joyce at +188 over Aspinall is my favorite bet of the night but I'll actually be fading Joyce in his next match against Steve Brown, the founder of the Junior Darts Corporation.
Brown will be on my card twice as I'm also locking him in to beat Aspinall in the group opener.
One of the great things about how this tournament has been set up is that the group headliners have been slated for the first and last match each day. It makes sense from a programming point to bookend the action with the biggest names, but it also is great for underdog bettors. It takes time to get used to this format and that automatically levels the playing field and oftentimes the final match of the night doesn't matter for the standings, so you'll have an unmotivated favorite.
Neither Brown nor Simon Stevenson will blow you away but anything can happen in a short match and they should be boosted by their schedule spots.
PDC Home Tour Night 10 Betting Picks
- Steve Brown (+300) over Nathan Aspinall
- Ryan Joyce (+188) over Nathan Aspinall
- Steve Brown (+180) over Ryan Joyce
- Simon Stevenson (+220) over Nathan Aspinall
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PDC Home Tour Betting Record: 11-20, -1.1 units
PDC Home Tour Odds and Schedule
PDC Home Tour Group Winners
- Group 1: Jamie Lewis (+600)
- Group 2: Luke Woodhouse (+600)
- Group 3: Dave Chisnall (-134)
- Group 4: Geert Nentjes (+250)
- Group 5: Nick Kenny (+450)
- Group 6: Ryan Searle (+180)
- Group 7: Jelle Klaasen (+200)
- Group 8: Jonny Clayton (+130)
- Group 9: Martijn Kleermaker (+350)
PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you're unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I'm assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn't go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv, free of charge.
- The first eight groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.
