If you've been following along with our PDC Home Tour Darts coverage, you know what our basic strategy is for the early part of this first-of-its-kind event. Given the unfamiliar environment and format for this tournament– the players are at home, play is sometimes interrupted by phone calls and the matches are short — it seems unwise to back big favorites.
Every athlete, bettor and fan knows that there will be times where you just tip your cap. It happens in the darts, too.
World No. 7 Nathan Aspinall, who admitted he was playing through injury and hadn't picked up his darts since Tuesday, was just too good on Sunday and ran away with Group 10 in convincing fashion. Aspinall has spent the last two years establishing himself as one of the game's elite talents and the former accountant certainly played like it on Sunday.
It's never fun to see your bets blow up in spectacular fashion but I'd bet against Aspinall at those prices 10 times out of 10 in a tournament like this.
We just tip our cap to The Asp and move on to Monday and Group 11.
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PDC Home Tour Night 11 Betting Odds and Picks
Monday, April 27 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 14 Simon Whitlock (+100)
- No. 98 Mike van Duivenbode (+300)
- No. 78 Kirk Shepherd (+350)
- No. 97 Alan Tabern (+350)
- Simon Whitlock (-225) v Mike van Duivenbode (+165)
- Kirk Shepherd (-114) v Alan Tabern (-114)
- Mike van Duivenbode (-122) v Alan Tabern (-102)
- Simon Whitlock (-265) v Kirk Shepherd (+200)
- Kirk Shepherd (+105) v Mike van Duivenbode (-139)
- Alan Tabern (+175) v Simon Whitlock (-230)
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We haven't seen many groups laid out quite like this one. Group 11 has a clear headliner in Simon "The Wizard" Whitlock, but the bookmakers are having a tough time deciding which of the other three contenders will give the Australian the best run for his money.
Whitlock is, by far, the most accomplished and well-known player in Group 10 but he hasn't really done anything of note in quite some time and his form this season is nothing to write home about. Whitlock's 92.93 average over the past year may be the best mark in this group but it's far from elite, ranking 47th in the PDC.
Whitlock has been around professional darts for the better part of 20 years and this will be the first time he's taken part in anything like this. It's still the same sport, sure, but we've seen enough of this tournament to know that upsets are going to happen and Whitlock seems ripe for the taking on Monday.
"The Wizard" will open the night with a tricky matchup against 21-year-old Mike "The Pigeon" van Duivenbode. I won't let van Duivenbode's 87.52 average in 2020 scare me off because I think he will take this tournament more seriously than Whitlock, a Tour veteran who has trousered millions of dollars in his career.
Maybe Whitlock is locked in from the get go, we've certainly seen a couple of big names, like Dave Chisnall, Jonny Clayton and Aspinall, get off and running and never look back, but I'll take my chances and hope that this unique tournament takes some getting used to for Whitlock.
Since I fancy van Duivenbode's chances to upset Whitlock, I'm also going to back him to win the group since his night should get a lot easier after his showdown with the World No. 14. I like backing younger players in this event because it's a great opportunity for them to make a name for themselves. The Home Tour may not end up being a prestigious event, but it's garnering plenty of attention in England so it's a great opportunity for a newcomer or an under-the-radar player to make some noise.
I have my doubts about either of the other two underdogs, Kirk Shepherd and Alan Tabern, will beat Whitlock but will stay the course. Shepherd and Tabern are a combined 4-13 against The Wizard over the years but this is a different ballgame. Hopefully one of them can give Whitlock a game and provide some value.
In the end it's the same story for the Home Tour. We've got another overpriced big name inflating odds on his opponents. Group favorites are 20-10 over their first 30 matches in this tournament and if you backed each one in all 30 matches you'd be down 9.57 units. I'm going to hope that the chaos continues on Monday and perhaps Whitlock will be the first headliner to get the 0-3 treatment.
PDC Home Tour Night 11 Betting Picks
- Mike van Duivenbode (+165) over Simon Whitlock
- Kirk Shepherd (+200) over Simon Whitlock
- Alan Tabern (+175) over Simon Whitlock
- Mike van Duivenbode (+300) to win Group 11
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PDC Home Tour Betting Record: 12-23, -2.3 units
PDC Home Tour Odds and Schedule
PDC Home Tour Group Winners
- Group 1: Jamie Lewis (+600)
- Group 2: Luke Woodhouse (+600)
- Group 3: Dave Chisnall (-134)
- Group 4: Geert Nentjes (+250)
- Group 5: Nick Kenny (+450)
- Group 6: Ryan Searle (+180)
- Group 7: Jelle Klaasen (+200)
- Group 8: Jonny Clayton (+130)
- Group 9: Martijn Kleermaker (+350)
- Group 10: Nathan Aspinall (-177)
PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you're unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I'm assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn't go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv, free of charge.
- The first eight groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.
