Bloody hell, we've got darts to bet on.
The folks at the PDC have organized an ad hoc tournament, aptly named the PDC Home Tour, that begins on Friday, April 17 and will run through May. It won't feature the crazy atmosphere that makes Darts so special — players will be competing from their own homes — but this is a very bet-able event, even if you've never watched a second of Professional Darts.
The unfamiliar conditions and long layoff for each of the competitors means there's a great opportunity to deploy some game theory for this tournament, especially in the early going. I'll get to that in my preview for Night 1, but first let's take a look at the rules so we know what we're dealing with.
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PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you're unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I'm assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn't go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv. It will be shown for free, although I am not 100% certain it will be available for users in the United States, let's hope for the best.
- The first four groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.
PDC Home Tour Betting Picks, Night 1
The PDC Home Tour will kick off on Friday with Group A. The schedule features six games, starting at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Group A is highlighted by defending World Champion Peter "Snakebite" Wright. Known for his trademark neon-colored hair and the snake that he has his wife paint on the side of his head for every match, Wright became the oldest first-time World Champion this past January with a famous win over World No. 1 Michael van Gerwen. Prior to his win at the Ally Pally, Wright was your classic, "great player, but can't win the big one."
Group A Odds
- No. 2 Peter Wright -225
- No. 60 Jamie Lewis +600
- No. 81 Niels Zonneveld +600
- No. 129 Peter Jacques +600
Group A Order of Play
First match begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on Friday, April 17
- Peter Wright (-700) v Peter Jacques (+450)
- Jamie Lewis (-120) v Niels Zonneveld (-120)
- Peter Jacques (-120) v Niels Zonneveld (-120)
- Peter Wright (-700) v Jamie Lewis (+450)
- Jamie Lewis (-120) v Peter Jacques (-120)
- Niels Zonneveld (+450) v Peter Wright (-700)
Odds as of Thursday at 1:20 p.m. ET and via bet365. Get up to $100 in bet credits at bet365 today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
While Wright is undoubtedly the class of this group, I am going to try and beat him on Night 1. There's so much uncertainty heading into this one-of-a-kind event and that should lead to some volatility and randomness. Sounds like a recipe for underdogs.
Not only is this is the first tournament of its kind, with players competing from their own home, but nobody has played a live, professional darts match in about a month. And with social distancing being the way of life for most of the darts-playing world, these guys can't just call up one of their mates and head to the bar to get a few legs in. Rust could be a real factor and I'm hoping that gives the less talented players a fighting chance against Wright.
I could be proven wrong, perhaps Wright is as motivated as ever and comes out sharp, or he is just too good, but you'd be crazy to lay this kind of juice in a betting environment like this. Additionally, this could be the best chance at getting these kind of prices on underdogs. If Wright does struggle on Night 1, you can bet your bottom dollar that bookmakers will adjust the rest of the groups accordingly.
There are a couple of different strategies to deploy if you're going against Wright, each of them carrying a risk of 3 units. But as you'll see, one seems much more attractive than the other.
One way to attack Wright is by betting a unit on each of the other competitors, Jamie Lewis, Peter Jacques and Niels Zonneveld, to win Group A. The three underdogs all boast the same odds at +600, so if you bet one stake on each of them and one of them wins, you're looking at a 4-unit profit. It's a simple enough strategy, but you run the risk of Wright going 2-1 and still winning the group, plus you cap your ceiling at 4 units.
The better bang-for-your-buck bet is to go against Wright in each individual match. If he drops one, you're guaranteed at least a 2.5-unit profit. And if he drops two, you're looking at an 8-unit score. And if he starts 0-2, there's a good chance he just mails in the third match since he will likely be eliminated from the competition and you'd be looking at a possible, though unlikely, 13.5-unit day. Wouldn't that be nice.
Betting against Wright on a per-match basis also affords you the opportunity to wait and see. If he looks lights-out against Jacques in Match 1, you can pull the ripcord on Match 2 or perhaps get a better number on the next two matches if you want to stick with it. Of course there is the chance that Wright stumbles in Match 1 and you lose value on the next two matches, too.
If you do choose to bet against Wright, do so responsibly, knowing that he is very likely to win each contest. His implied probability for each individual match is above 87%, so there is a very real chance that he goes 3-0 and we go back to the drawing board for Night 2. That being said, betting opportunities like this don't come around all that often. Giddy up.
Day 1 Betting Picks
- Peter Jacques +450 over Peter Wright
- Jamie Lewis +450 over Peter Wright
- Niels Zonneveld +450 over Peter Wright
PDC Home Tour Odds and Schedule
Group B Odds
- No. 3 Gerwyn Price (-175)
- No. 57 Luke Woodhouse (+400)
- No. 66 Ted Evetts (+600)
- No. 70 Rowby-John Rodriguez (+600)
Group B Order of Play
First match begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 18.
- Gerwyn Price v Rowby-John Rodriguez
- Luke Woodhouse v Ted Evetts
- Rowby-John Rodriguez v Ted Evetts
- Gerwyn Price v Luke Woodhouse
- Luke Woodhouse v Rowby-John Rodriguez
- Ted Evetts v Gerwyn Price
Group C Odds
- No. 11 Dave Chisnall -138
- No. 102 Scott Waites +320
- No. 58 Jan Dekker +420
- No. 91 Jonathan Worsley +700
Group C Order of Play
First match begins on Sunday, April 19 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Dave Chisnall v Scott Waites
- Jan Dekker v Jonathan Worsley
- Scott Waites v Jonathan Worsley
- Dave Chisnall v Jan Dekker
- Jan Dekker v Scott Waites
- Jonathan Worsley v Dave Chisnall
Group D Odds
- No. 47 Ross Smith +140
- No. 53 Mickey Mansell +260
- No. 71 Geert Nentjes +260
- No. 128 Lisa Ashton +550
Group D Order of Play
Matches begin at 2:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 20.
- Ross Smith v Lisa Ashton
- Mickey Mansell v Geert Nentjes
- Lisa Ashton v Geert Nentjes
- Ross Smith v Mickey Mansell
- Mickey Mansell v Lisa Ashton
- Geert Nentjes v Ross Smith
