If you've been following along with our PDC Home Tour Darts coverage, you know what our basic strategy is for the group stages of this first-of-its-kind event. Given the unfamiliar environment and format for this tournament– the players are at home, play is sometimes interrupted by phone calls and the matches are short — it seems unwise to back big favorites.
Nothing left to do but tip my cap to Damon "The Heat" Heta.
The Australian won Group 17 in an impressive fashion on Sunday and he did so in weird-but-impressive fashion. Not only did Heta nail three 180s and average 96 points per throw en route to a 2-1 record, but he accomplished all of that while competing at 3 a.m. local time, trying to play quiet enough so that he would not wake his dogs. Their barking could threaten to wake up his sleeping neighbors.
I picked against Heta in both of his matches on Sunday (or Monday), thinking that — despite his good form — he would struggle to play his sport at 3 a.m. I was wrong.
Such is life grinding out The PDC Home Tour.
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PDC Home Tour Night 18 Betting Odds and Picks
Monday, May 4 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 17 Stephen Bunting (+100)
- No. 36 Kim Huybrechts (+175)
- No. 134 Harald Leitinger (+550)
- No. 96 Nathan Derry (+600)
- Stephen Bunting (-360) vs. Harald Leitinger (+250)
- Kim Huybrechts (-275) vs. Nathan Derry (+195)
- Harald Leitinger (-125) vs. Nathan Derry (-106)
- Stephen Bunting (-175) vs. Kim Huybrechts (+130)
- Kim Huybrechts (-250) vs. Harald Leitinger (+185)
- Nathan Derry (+235) vs. Stephen Bunting (-295)
Group 18 has a similar set up to Group 17, with two clear favorites accompanied by a pair of longshots. The only difference is that the two headliners on Monday, Stephen "The Bullet" Bunting and Kim "The Hurricane" Huybrechts are of higher quality than the two we saw go a combined 4-2 on Monday.
Bunting unsurprisingly takes top honors with the bookmakers for Group 18 as the 35-year-old Merseysider boasts the best pedigree and the highest ranking of this set. Bunting also leads the way with a 94.61 average in 2020, though Huybrechts isn't far behind with a 94.16.
If this was a normal tournament with longer matches and taking place on a stage, both Bunting and Huybrechts would be in the "don't let this guy get hot" conversation. These two veterans can play world class darts on their day, but there are just so many extenuating factors in the Home Tour that you need tread very lightly with favorites. They are still winning more often than not — that's the point of being a favorite, after all — but you'd have to be crazy to lay -360 or -275 in a 9-leg game of darts taking place via video conference.
That being said, there is a precipitous drop-off in talent after Bunting and Huybrechts. Neither Nathan Derry nor Harald Leitinger have accomplished anything of note in their respective PDC careers, although Derry is less than a year removed from a nickname change, giving up on "The Firework" in favor of being dubbed "The Slingshot." Their statistical profiles also leave a lot to be desired, as Derry and Leitinger both own averages in the mid-80s on the season. That just won't cut it against players like Bunting and Huybrechts on most nights. Fortunately, this isn't most nights.
This is how the underdogs stack up against the favorites in Group 18, according to implied probability:
- Bunting 73.3% over Leitinger
- Huybrechts 68.4% over Derry
- Huybrechts 67.1% over Leitinger
- Bunting 71.4% over Derry
These numbers help put two things in perspective. First, Bunting and Huybrechts are much better players than Leitinger and Derry. And secondly, you don't need to be right all that often to come out ahead in The Home Tour.
Does Stephen Bunting beat Harald Leitinger 73.3% of the time? Sure, maybe in a normal game of darts where the stakes are high and the games are long enough to let Bunting's talent win out. But this is a 9-leg match taking place in the players' living rooms. Who the hell knows how each of these guys will take to this format. Who knows which of them may be trying to play as quietly as possible so that they don't wake up their pets.
The Home Tour is essentially all about who is motivated and which player can get hot at the right time. I'll always back big prices in those circumstances.
PDC Home Tour Night 18 Betting Picks
- Harald Leitinger (+250) over Stephen Bunting
- Nathan Derry (+195) over Kim Huybrechts
- Harald Leitinger (+185) over Kim Huybrechts
- Nathan Derry (+235) over Stephen Bunting
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PDC Home Tour Betting Record: 20-37, -0.45 units
PDC Home Tour Group Winners
- Group 1: Jamie Lewis (+600)
- Group 2: Luke Woodhouse (+600)
- Group 3: Dave Chisnall (-134)
- Group 4: Geert Nentjes (+250)
- Group 5: Nick Kenny (+450)
- Group 6: Ryan Searle (+180)
- Group 7: Jelle Klaasen (+200)
- Group 8: Jonny Clayton (+130)
- Group 9: Martijn Kleermaker (+350)
- Group 10: Nathan Aspinall (-177)
- Group 11: Mike van Duivenbode (+300)
- Group 12: Max Hopp (+175)
- Group 13: Carl Wilkinson (+450)
- Group 14: Chris Dobey (-118)
- Group 15: Darren Webster (+175)
- Group 16: Jeff Smith (+225)
- Group 17: Damon Heta (+163)
PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you're unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I'm assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn't go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv, free of charge.
- The first 20 groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.
