A lot of us expected one Luke in the finals, with that being the pre-tournament favorite Luke Humphries. But despite his amazing talent, I don't know if even Luke Littler's biggest fans thought he would make the finals of the PDC World Championship on debut. And in case you haven't heard it a thousand times, he's 16 years old.
This is one of the most interesting storylines in darts history, and it is becoming a big storyline in the sporting world in general — a rarity for our beloved sport. That's just how good the kid has been, though. Can he play spoiler to Humphries and shock the world?
Let's break down the match, which begins at 8 p.m. local time (3 p.m. ET) and will be a first-to-seven set format.
Luke Littler vs. Luke Humphries
- bet365 match odds: +120 / -150
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +276 / -276
- 2023-2024 average: 92.83, 98.48
- Tournament average: 101.82, 99.33
- Most 180 odds: Littler +120, Tie +1100, Humphries -120
- 2023/2024 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.34
- Tournament 180s per leg: 0.38, 0.39
Before the semifinals, I had a couple of doubts about Littler. One was that he wound up getting an easy draw in his first five matches. The other was that we wouldn't know how he would react if he fell behind, because he had just been too damn good up until then.
Well, "The Nuke" proved my doubts wrong against Rob Cross, a very legitimate opponent. Cross won the first set and was close to winning the second, but Littler improved his play, evened things up by winning the second set and didn't look back in an amazing performance that ended with him averaging 106.
Humphries was even better in his semifinal win over Scott Williams, whitewashing him 6-0 and averaging nearly 109. His first couple of matches in this tournament were sketchy and not Humphries-esque. But his comeback win over Joe Cullen showed guts, and the two matches since then have been superb.
Oddsmakers have set a fair line in the eyes of the market: The moneyline has remained where it opened with Humphries as a -150 favorite.
When it comes to who I think will win the match, I'm going with the guy who we thought was going to win it a few weeks ago and has turned the jets back on in the last two matches — Luke Humphries. I'll be foregoing the moneyline at -150 in favor of taking him -1.5 (+105), though, as these first to seven set matches rarely go to a final set. That's something that's happened just four times since the finals of the Worlds switched to first to seven back in 2000.
Unlike the main lines, one area that has seen a lot of action is the most 180s prop, where Littler has gone from +175 to +120 and Humphries has moved from -188 to -120.
Buyback time. Their 180s per leg rates have been very similar during the tournament, but I lean towards Humphries' more proven track record. DartsOrakel think the fair odds are about -135 for Humphries. Depending on your book, you may also find value on the "Tie" on this prop, which can be had as high as +1450 at BetMGM. Even with their very similar 180 rates, it's hard for the numbers to align after the end of potentially 50-plus legs of darts, but not as unlikely as nearly 15-1 suggests.
One last area I'm looking to bet is the average markets. Both players can be found at multiple books with an over/under of 100.5 with varying juice and I like the over on both. Despite a few bets in Humphries' favor, I'm not totally fading the kid! Even though I find a 13-set affair unlikely, I do think this should be a cracker and that both players will feed off each and keep the averages in the triple digits — potentially well above 100. Expect minimal faffage and most legs to be done and dusted in 15 darts or fewer.
That just about does it, though. It's been a wild tournament that could end today in the wildest of ways. I've thoroughly enjoyed breaking down the bets for the readers each day and we've made over 10 units in the process — not too shabby! Let's end on a high note and hope for both some money in our pockets and a thrilling Battle of the Lukes.
Littler vs. Humphries Picks
- Luke Humphries -1.5 (+105) · DraftKings
- Luke Humphries Most 180s -120 · bet365
- Tie most 180s (only at 13-1 or higher) +1450 · BetMGM
- Humphries over 100.5 average -125 · BetMGM
- Littler over 100.5 average -110 · BetMGM
