We are here. The best sporting tournament on earth has arrived. The 2024 PDC World Darts Championship begins on Friday.
Day 1 brings us a single session in the evening (2 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. local) with four matches. As is tradition, the final match on Friday will feature the reigning champ, Michael Smith, and the winner of the first match of the session — either Kevin Doets or the flashy American, Stowe Buntz.
Let's dive in to each match to see where the value lies.
PDC World Darts Championship Odds, Picks | Day 1
Kevin Doets vs. Stowe Buntz
- bet365 match odds: -138/+110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +134/-134
- 2023 average: 90.52, 86.92
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.51, 88.52
- Most 180 odds: Doets -275, Draw +550, Buntz +350
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.14
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The PDC have given Americans a very good reason to tune into the darts on Day 1, as they're rolling out 44-year-old Virginia native Stowe Buntz, who just wowed in his big TV tourney debut last month at the Grand Slam. Buntz walloped former World Champion Peter Wright in the group stage and also picked up wins against Stephen Bunting and Andrew Gilding before losing in the quarters.
He'll face Kevin Doets, a young Dutchman 19 years his junior. He's done alright for himself on the pro tour, but has yet to see much action on the big stages — this will mark his first appearance at the Worlds.
After opening at a pick 'em, early action had the line moving towards Doets and it hasn't really gone back the other way. Based on their numbers, the recent proof that Buntz can win on the big stage and just a bit of Bandwagon-Buntz FOMO, though, I'm going to back the American as a 'dog. The statisticians at DartsOrakel think he should be a slight favorite so you don't need to tell me twice.
Pick: Stowe Buntz +120 (DraftKings)
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Cameron Menzies vs. Rusty-Jake Rodriguez
- bet365 match odds: -175/+137
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -132/+132
- 2023 average: 93.91, 88.47
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.28, 91.87
- Most 180 odds: Menzies -125, Draw +550, Rodriguez +150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.28, 0.23
I really wish this matchup were Cameron Menzies vs. Rowby-John Rodriguez, but Rusty-Jake will have to do.
Menzies has sneakily been one of the better statistical players on tour this year, and has seen his average creep above 94 in recent months. This guy has the potential to get a little bonkos on stage — yelling at himself, slapping himself in the face, hurling darts into the board after a victory — basic shenanigans.
Hey, those antics won over the Queen of the Palace's heart. They haven't done him much in terms of success on the stage, though, as his stats haven't translated into any real runs of note in either majors or Euro Tour events.
RJR is the less seasoned, less charismatic younger brother of the other RJR. He came through in the tour card holder qualifiers on the day of the draw. He had a solid 2022 season, picking up a win at the Worlds and a little stretch of success in Euro tours, but hasn't backed it up this year.
Menzies has the numbers edge, but this should be a very close one. I think Rodriguez provides a bit of value and if you do some line shopping, he can be found at +146 at FanDuel.
Lean: Rusty-Jake Rodriguez +146 (FanDuel)
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Simon Whitlock vs. Paolo Nebrida
- bet365 match odds: -1400/+800
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -171/+171
- 2023 average: 91.93, 84.6
- Avg. since Sep 1: 90.94, 81.85
- Most 180 odds:
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.12
When doing my initial perusing of the odds after the lines opened up, Simon Whitlock being this monster of a favorite caught my eye. I figured Mr. Nebrida must be averaging in the mid 70s or something, but no. Sure, he's not good, but he can hold his own — you may remember him losing a five-set opening round affair last year to "The Mullet" Danny Janssen.
With that said, I figured there would be value on Nebrida, but DartsOrakel's calculations are nearly insulting to The Wizard, suggesting he should be around a -170 favorite. The odds market is clearly not on board with that.
Nevertheless, I do think Nebrida is worth a shot. I don't think he should be +170, but even if you think he should be +500, there's value on him based on where the market is at. He could once be had for +1300, but his best straight-up price is now +900 at FanDuel.
A safer play and perhaps my favorite of the opening rounds is for Nebrida to win just a set on the +2.5 set spread. I don't think you can go wrong here at +160.
Pick: Nebrida +2.5 sets +160 (Caesars)
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Michael Smith (1) vs. Winner of Doets/Buntz
- bet365 match odds: TBD
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: Smith -153 vs. Doets, Smith -114 vs. Buntz
- 2023 average: 95.79, 90.52/86.92
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.14, 91.51/88.52
- Most 180 odds: TBD
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.32, 0.23/0.14
The reigning champ will round out the night and the Bully Boy should be a sizable favorite against either opponent. Though Smith has not played particularly well lately, at least compared to what he can do, I think the FDI ratings are definitely harsh on him. He will very likely be upwards of -300 against either Doets or Buntz, but FDI thinks it should be a lot closer.
Admittedly, Smith does have an erratic track record at this event. Over the past six years, he has three second-round losses and three finals appearances, with last year's win being his first.
I'm not buying it, though, as I think Smith should be all right against either potential foe. If Smith's odds are absurdly ballooned, I won't count out a play on his opponent, particularly on the spread.
If Doets or Buntz play great in the first match and Smith's odds are surprisingly short, that might be a good chance to get the World Champ at a discount.
Pick: N/A
