The 2024 PDC World Darts Championship kicked off on Friday with plenty of darting drama. The night's event was highlighted by a cracker of a final match between reigning world champion Michael Smith and Kevin Doets, who pushed the Bully Boy to the brink.
Saturday features the event's first full slate: eight matches over two sessions. So toss on the darts (via DAZN or stream directly through some sportsbook apps), decorate a tree, wrap some gifts, drink some drinks and let's get to betting.
Saturday Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Lee Evans vs. Sandro Eric Sosing
- bet365 match odds: -500/+350
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -342/+342
- 2023 average: 89.97, 80.72
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.05, 86.94
- Most 180 odds: Evans -275, Tie +500, Sosing +400
- 2023 180s per leg: .23, .14
This could be a real gritty match to start the day, with plenty of potential for faffing about, missed doubles and tungsten torture.
I'm not seeing any obvious plays, however. Nobody's going to blame you if you sleep through this match on Saturday morning.
Pick: Pass
Connor Scutt vs. Krzysztof Kciuk
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -209/+209
- 2023 average: 91.44, 88.43
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.27, 86.17
- Most 180 odds: Scutt -150, Tie +500, Kciuk +200
- 2023 180s per leg: .24, .18
This is another fairly lackluster match on Saturday morning featuring The Sniper, Connor Scutt, vs. The Thumb, Krzysztof Kciuk. It's Scutt's first appearance at the Worlds and Kciuk's first since 2010.
Honestly, there's not a ton doing here, either. I typically like underdogs in this range, but I do think Scutt should prevail. I don't plan on betting this match, but perhaps the double prop for Scutt to win and hit the most 180s (+105) could be a decent play.
Pick: Pass
Jules van Dongen vs. Darren Penhall
- bet365 match odds: -225/+175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +124/-124
- 2023 average: 91.55, 87.33
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.91, 90.50
- Most 180 odds: van Dongen -125, Tie +450, Penhall +162
- 2023 180s per leg: .23, 23
Now here is a match where the FDI index at DartsOrakel does not make much sense to me, as van Dongen has been the better player in about every category this year. The Dutch Dragon (born in the Netherlands, lives in Missouri, plays for Team USA and has an American flag on his shirt … slightly confusing) is around a -225 favorite at most shops, which I do think is a bit of a stretch.
At age 51, you'd think his opponent Darren Penhall might be a household darts name at this point, but no. He just showed up a few years ago and hasn't really done much in terms of achievements.
I think looking toward the 180 props may be the way to go. Given their identical maximums per-leg rate this year, this might be a time to try out the always fun draw. A real painful bet to make, it involves both cheering and vehemently rooting against both players. Oftentimes, it ends in late heartbreak, but considering you can bet on it at +500 at Caesars, at least it's a painful bet with value.
Pick: Tie 180s (+500, Caesars)
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Dave Chisnall (11) vs. Cameron Menzies
- bet365 match odds: -350/+275
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -246/+246
- 2023 average: 96.16, 93.91
- Avg. since Sep 1: 96.10, 94.28
- Most 180 odds: Chisnall -138, Tie +600, Menzies +162
- 2023 180s per leg: .35, .28
We have a couple of big maximum hitters on our hands to end the session, with a streaky but occasionally elite Chizzy vs. Cameron Menzies, who beat Rusty-Jake Rodriguez in the opening round on Friday.
Menzies looked quite convincing with a straight-set victory and was quite exuberant on stage with plenty of celebrations and interaction with the crowd. It seemed to get to young Rusty-Jake, but I'm not quite sure it will phase the veteran Dave Chisnall.
I don't think there's value oozing anywhere here, but the stats suggest a hair of value on Menzies. At the time of writing, the lines for this game were just released, so look around and see if you can get him at +300 or higher.
Pick: Lean Menzies
Saturday Night Session: 2 p.m. ET
Jamie Hughes vs. David Cameron
- bet365 match odds: -138/+110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +108/-108
- 2023 average: 91.03, 87.80
- Avg. since Sep 1: 90.61, 89.12
- Most 180 odds: Hughes -138, Tie +450, Cameron +200
- 2023 180s per leg: .18, .13
I know what you're thinking, but no, this is not David Cameron, The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton. No. It's Canadian dartist David Cameron, the same one who came back from being down 2-0 in sets and 2-0 in legs in the third set to win against Ritchie Edhouse in the opening round last year, and who missed six match darts in the process.
I'm hoping Cameron has some more magic up his sleeve this year against Jamie Hughes (maybe just win a bit more casually this year, though). He'll face Jamie "Yozza" Hughes, who is having a hard time winning this year; his 43% win rate is a full 10% lower than any other year since he's been on tour.
The FDI index thinks Cameron should be the favorite, I personally think it should be around a pick 'em, and the market thinks Hughes has somewhere between a 55% and 60% chance to win given his odds. Give me the Canadian at plus money — Caesars currently has the best line by a decent chunk at +130.
Pick: Cameron +130 (Caesars)
Keane Barry vs. Reynaldo Rivera
- bet365 match odds: -500/+350
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -155/+155
- 2023 average: 90.79, 86.58
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.99, 88.12
- Most 180 odds: Barry -120, Tie +375, Rivera +162
- 2023 180s per leg: .17, .17
We have another underdog I fancy here — perhaps my favorite medium/large-sized underdog on the pre-Christmas slate. Keane Barry, just 21, is appearing in his fifth Worlds. Not too shabby. However, his track record here is fairly shabby, as he has just one victory thus far.
Last year, he suffered a big upset to Grant Sampson in R1 and I think he may find himself in a similar spot this year vs. Reynaldo Rivera. An international qualifier, Rivera doesn't play on the main tour against the top competition, but this is a guy who averaged 110 in a match and has proven capable of throwing high-quality darts. I think his average, which is not all that bad to begin with compared to some of the other big R1 underdogs, is being dragged down due to some matches where a poor opponent brought the overall standard down.
Rivera was available around +500 in the early days after odds were released, and I think our pre-tourney best bets piece has led to a little Rivera steam. BetMGM still has the best odds by a fair margin at +425, and I think Rivera is worth at shot at anything in the +350 or higher range.
Pick: Rivera (+425, BetMGM)
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Scott Williams vs. Haruki Muramatsu
- bet365 match odds: -275/+220
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -217/+217
- 2023 average: 91.26, 87.87
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.20, 88.57
- Most 180 odds: Williams -450, Tie +650, Muramatsu +600
- 2023 180s per leg: .25, .11
This match is admittedly closer on paper than I thought it was going to be. I certainly like Williams to advance, but Muramatsu is no slouch and the FDI index thinks -275 is too steep a price to pay.
With that said, I'm having trouble finding value here. I would suggest taking the "match double" of Williams to win and hit the most 180s, but that only improves your odds from -275 to -250. Not worth it in my mind. Unless there are some last minute line moves, I'll be a spectator for this one.
Pick: Pass
Gary Anderson (21) vs. Simon Whitlock
- bet365 match odds: -500/+350
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -746/+746
- 2023 average: 98.72, 91.93
- Avg. since Sep 1: 99.72, 90.94
- Most 180 odds: Anderson -138, Tie +550, Whitlock +162
- 2023 180s per leg: .33, .31
The Wizard eked out a win against longshot Paolo Nebrida on Friday, but he showed exactly why he can't be trusted to bet on these days. Quite frankly, he should have lost that match to someone whose odds were as high as +1300.
Gary Anderson is a bit of a different beast than Nebrida. He owns the highest average of anyone this year at nearly 99 and has been even better in recent months. I've never been one to lay the juice on a moneyline favorite of this size, and this will be no different. However, I'll likely look for a few different ways to bet on Anderson via spread bets, props or as a parlay piece.
Pick: Anderson as a parlay piece
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