Another day, another eight darts matches to bet on at the PDC World Darts Championship.
Saturday's slate wasn't exactly a cracker factory as we didn't get a single fifth-set decider. Let's see what Sunday has in store:
Afternoon Session: 7:30 am ET
Ricky Evans vs. Simon Adams
- bet365 match odds: -700/+450
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: -960/+960
- 2023 average: 93.03, 76.29
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.69, 77.84
- Most 180 odds: Evans -188, Tie +450, Adams +275
- 2023 180s per leg: .24, .17
Rapid Ricky Evans is a showman. He's not the best player on the planet by any stretch, but he's right up there with the most entertaining.
He gets a juicy draw against Simon Adams, a man who could easily average 20+ points lower than him in this match. As long as Evans doesn't play down to his opponent, that is.
I think Evans is a "bargain" compared to some of the other huge favorites well north of -1000 in R1, and although I won't bite on that big of a moneyline, I will look to him to win in straight sets.
Pick: Evans to win 3-0 +100 (bet365)
Jim Williams vs. Norman Madhoo
- bet365 match odds: -3300/+1400
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: -900/+900
- 2023 average: 95.30, 73.76
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.88, 75.30
- Most 180 odds: Williams -500, Tie +450, Madhoo +1000
- 2023 180s per leg: .24, .07
Gentleman Jim Williams is perhaps the best player who we don't get to see on a regular basis. His average this year is 16th best in the world. His finishing? Fourth best.
Darts Orakel is probably being generous to Mr. Norman Madhoo, who I don't think has any chance at beating Williams. Stormin' Norm will probably be happy to average 80+ in this match and I highly doubt he'll have anywhere near enough chances to put up a good fight.
Williams' odds are so juiced, even on the set spread, that I don't think it's sensible to bet on him. If you're looking for a painful sweat, you could back Madhoo at about +750 to win a single set.
Pick: Pass
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Matt Campbell vs. Lourence Ilagan
- bet365 match odds: -225/+175
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: -215/+215
- 2023 average: 90.70, 86.23
- Avg. since Sep 1: 90.22, 84.54
- Most 180 odds: Campbell +162, Tie +350, Ilagan +100
- 2023 180s per leg: .11, .18
The Campell vs. Ilagan affair, as I imagine it will be known as for years to come, has seen some interesting line movement to say the least. At bet365, Campbell opened at -175 and has since moved to -225. However, other shops have had Campbell as low as -136. Unfortunately, things have since evened out and all books have had the odds shift toward Campbell.
The stats are in the red-headed Canadian's favor and I can only assume that is why bettors have flocked to him thus far. His 0-4 career record at the Worlds suggests -225 might be a scary price to pay, though.
Ilagan is familiar with Campbell's misery, as his 0-6 drought to start his career at the Worlds ended last year when he beat Rowby-John Rodriguez in R1. At +175, I think he's a very respectable play, but at bet365 you can still get him +1.5 at -125 — a line that has largely moved to -150 across the market.
Pick: Ilagan +1.5 -125 (bet365)
Joe Cullen (14) vs. Darren Penhall
- bet365 match odds: -400/+300
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: -129/+129
- 2023 average: 94.60, 87.33
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.33, 90.50
- Most 180 odds: Cullen -175, Tie +550, Penhall +225
- 2023 180s per leg: .32, .23
The Rockstar, Joe Cullen, is one of my tournament dark horses at 80-1, and let's just say I'm not going to hedge out of that with a Darren Penhall bet in R2.
Penhall showed some good stuff in a 3-1 upset on Saturday against Jules Van Dongen, but the numbers suggest he won't be able to repeat the 91 average he showed. Averages aren't everything, but Cullen is an elite scorer — nearly 10 points better than Penhall on the front-nine average — and should consistently be ahead and getting more opportunities at doubles. I think it would really take some major faffing about on Cullen's behalf for Penhall to make this close and that's not something I expect to happen.
Pick: Cullen -1.5 -170 (DraftKings)
Evening Session: 2 pm ET
Dylan Slevin vs. Florian Hempel
- bet365 match odds: +150/-188
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: +129/-129
- 2023 average: 89.50, 89.35
- Avg. since Sep 1: 89.69, 93.77
- Most 180 odds: Slevin +120, Tie +450, Hempel +120
- 2023 180s per leg: .19, .22
The German ex-pro-handballer, Florian Hempel, makes his return to the Palace and bettors are backing the familiar face thus far. After opening at -138, he's moved all the way to -188, but is that an overreaction?
The stats suggest yes as the opening odds seemed pretty fair. But, Hempel's intangibles — his experience, prior runs on this stage and drive to win in order to keep his tour card — make me think +150 isn't enough value on the Slevin side.
I will keep an eye on the line as I think Hempel in the -150 range is fair game, but will otherwise be a spectator.
Pick: Wait for a better Hempel line or pass
Niels Zonneveld vs. Darren Webster
- bet365 match odds: -300/+240
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: -301/+301
- 2023 average: 91.82, 86.98
- Avg. since Sep 1: 90.90, 88.32
- Most 180 odds: Zonneveld -200, Tie +500, Webster +275
- 2023 180s per leg: .29, .16
We have a battle of a young talent vs. an old veteran on our hands as 25-year-old Dutchman Niels Zonneveld is a fair favorite against the dartist formerly known as the Demolition Man — Darren "Wreck It" Webster — who checks in at a spry 55.
Webster missed three consecutive Worlds, but is back thanks to the tour card qualifiers a few weeks ago in which he won four consecutive matches — all with 91+ averages.
That type of stuff could put him right into things against Zonneveld, but Zonneveld seems to be more like an A-game or C-game type player, rather than a consistent B-gamer, if that makes any sense.
While the advanced stats suggest Webster's odds aren't quite good enough to back him, I prefer the consistent veteran who boasts a .500 career Ally Pally record over more than a decade over a youngster who has struggled to find his game when the bright lights are shining.
Pick: Webster +240
Jermaine Wattimena vs. Fallon Sherrock
- bet365 match odds: -275/+220
- Darts Orakel FDI fair odds: -172/+172
- 2023 average: 92.33, 84.94
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.44, 83.56
- Most 180 odds: Wattimena +150, Tie +450, Sherrock +100
- 2023 180s per leg: .15, .22
The Queen of the Palace, Fallon Sherrock, takes the stage Sunday evening against Jermaine Wattimena in what will surely be a well-spirited affair.
On paper, Wattimena is the better player by a fairly good chunk. However, I really don't think that tells the whole story.
While I think Wattimena should still be favored, I think the line should be closer than it is and the statisticians at Darts Orakel agree. However, my argument has more to do with the atmosphere and Wattimena's personality.
More often than not, Wattimena will get discouraged if things aren't going his way and unfortunately for him, the crowd will be sending him jeers rather than cheers. Sherrock will be a big crowd favorite and while that doesn't matter all that much for some players, I think it will hurt Wattimena's game.
Odds have shifted toward Wattimena over the past couple of days and I feel that provides more value on Sherrock.
Pick: Sherrock +220 (bet365)
Luke Humphries (3) vs. Lee Evans
- bet365 match odds: -1400/+800
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -2273/+2273
- 2023 average: 98.42, 89.97
- Avg. since Sep 1: 99.45, 91.05
- Most 180 odds: Humphries -250, Tie +600, Evans +300
- 2023 180s per leg: .33, .23
Luke Humphries, winner of three majors this year, is hoping to add the Sid Waddell Trophy to his collection, but not if Lee Evans has something to say about it! I'm kidding, Lee Evans will lose. By how much is what we have to think about.
Evans isn't a horrible player, but Humphries has been on another planet lately. I have to imagine that hardly any bettors are backing Evans on any of the main markets. Right now, Evans +2.5 sets is at +125, which I actually find as an enticing option to go against the public. However, with the expected activity on Humphries, I would suggest waiting until pretty close to the start of the match for (hopefully) some better odds.
Pick: Evans +2.5 (Check for best odds before the match)
