We're back in action Monday at Alexandra Palace for another day of darts, albeit a single session.
Day 4 of the PDC World Darts Championship features two big names: young star Gian van Veen, who should have a cakewalk of a match against Man Lok Leung, and "The Iceman," former world champion Gerwyn Price, who takes on a young talent in Connor Scutt.
Let's break things down match by match and see where the value lies.
Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Mario Vandenbogaerde vs. Thibault Tricole
- bet365 match odds: -188/+150
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -130/+130
- 2023 average: 92.48, 87.76
- Avg. since Sept. 1: 92.23, 88.86
- Most 180 odds: Vandenbogaerde -162, Tie +400, Tricole +240
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.17, 0.13
The first match of the evening features two middling players both making their debut at Ally Pally with Mario Vandenbogaerde and one of the only French dartists on the circuit, Thibault Tricole.
The stats in this one suggest there's value on the Frenchman, and quite frankly, there's not much about Vandenbogaerde that is going to scare me off from taking Tricole. I think he's a viable option to either win or to hit the most 180s, but I'm going to stay traditional and take him on the moneyline.
Pick: Thibault Tricole +154 (FanDuel)
Gian van Veen vs. Man Lok Leung
- bet365 match odds: -2000/+1000
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: n/a
- 2023 average: 94.26, 82.80
- Avg. since Sept. 1: 95.29, 82.13
- Most 180 odds: van Veen -500, Tie +600, Leung +900
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.12
Next up on the docket is Gian van Veen, who scored an easy draw in what will be the first of many matches in his career at the Worlds. Man Lok Leung isn't the worst player in the bracket, but he's certainly toward the bottom and will have a very hard time keeping up with van Veen's scoring prowess.
Clearly, the oddsmakers have accounted for this; it's quite hard to bet on van Veen in any fashion without paying a huge price. With that in mind, I'm going to pass and watch with some popcorn as van Veen thwacks his opponent.
Pick: Pass
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Martin Lukeman vs. Haupai Puha
- bet365 match odds: 200/+162
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +131/-131
- 2023 average: 92.25, 87.98
- Avg. since Sept. 1: 93.60, 90.52
- Most 180 odds: Lukeman -125, Tie +400, Puha +175
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.19, 0.18
The third match features Martin Lukeman, an average player on the circuit, against Haupai Puha, a New Zealander who you may be familiar with from the World Series events taking place down under.
Lukeman had a solid 2022 campaign in which he reached the final of a Euro Tour, the quarters at the Grand Prix, and won 60% of his total matches. But that success has dropped off a bit this year, and he's qualified for far fewer events and is winning just about half the time.
Surprisingly, and I think incorrectly, the advanced stats have Puha as the favorite in this match. Sort of a stretch in my opinion, but even with that said, I do believe there's value on him. Similar to the first match, I think he's bettable on either the moneyline or the most 180s line, as their maximum numbers are nearly identical, yet there's a big discrepancy in the 180 market.
Once again, I'll stay with the standard moneyline bet here as FanDuel is offering a solid 10 extra cents or so more on Puha than the rest of the market.
Pick: Haupai Puha +178 (FanDuel)
Gerwyn Price (5) vs. Connor Scutt
- bet365 match odds: -800/+500
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -781/+781
- 2023 average: 98.65, 91.50
- Avg. since Sept. 1: 98.43, 92.41
- Most 180 odds: Price -138, Tie +550, Scutt +162
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.33, 0.24
Gerwyn Price is the third most favored player to win the tourney this year, but Connor Scutt's performance in R1 – a 96 average 3-0 win over Krzysztof Kciuk – is going to at least make bettors think twice about laying such a big price on … Price.
One way to bet him without breaking the bank is that 180 market. Scutt's five maximums in his opening match may have led to this line being a bit closer than it would've been originally, as there's a fairly sizable gap between the stats this year. If you look at the Lukeman/Puha lines, you'll see Lukeman's odds for most 180s are just a hair shorter than Price's – but look at the stats.
The only thing against Price's favor is that this match could be a short one and less legs played means less of a chance for Price to build that 180 gap. If it's a short one, though, it's going to be Price in a landslide, and Price in a landslide points to him filling up the red bit a handful of times. I think this is a good way to bet on an elite player at a short price.
Pick: Gerwyn Price most 180s -138 (bet365)
