We lovers of the darts had a sad day Monday, with a measly four matches to watch. We're back with a full slate on Tuesday, though, with eight matches spread across two sessions.
Easily the most notable name on the card is a fella named Michael van Gerwen, the best dartist of the past decade. His journey for World Championship No. 4 begins in the final match of the night against youngster Keane Barry. Let's see where the value lies in that match and all seven others.
Here are our World Darts Championship best bets today.
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Ian White vs. Tomoya Goto
- bet365 match odds: -800/+500
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -324/+324
- 2023 average: 93.84, 86.05
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.25, 88.99
- Most 180 odds: White -188, Tie +450, Goto +275
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.21, 0.22
Ian "Diamond" White makes his return to Ally Pally after not qualifying last year for the first time since 2011. I'm just not sure how long his visit will last, though.
I will be betting against the veteran and backing perhaps Japan's top player, Tomoya Goto. Do I think he's likely to win? No, but I'm betting on a price, not a person, and I think he has more of a chance at winning than the odds suggest.
Goto shows value on both the moneyline and the 180s line, which suggests he is nowhere near the maximum hitter as White is even though it's Goto who has just barely hit more per leg on average this year.
Pick: 0.5u Goto Moneyline (+500 at bet365), 0.5u Goto 180s (+300 at ESPN BET)
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Ritchie Edhouse vs. Jeffrey de Graaf
- bet365 match odds: -250/+200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -177/+177
- 2023 average: 91.23, 85.52
- Avg. since Sep 1: 91.23, 85.42
- Most 180 odds: Edhouse +120, Tie +450, de Graaf +120
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.21, 0.18
I don't want to say this is the most boring match of the day, but … on paper, it probably is. The good thing for us, though, is that any match has the potential to be a last-leg-deciding absolute cracker.
In games like this with two middling to mediocre players, I tend to always look to the underdog first and this one is no exception. Jeffrey de Graaf is definitely more mediocre than middling, but the advanced numbers suggest there's a hair of value on him. He's never won a match at a World Championship — either the BDO or the PDC — in six tries thus far, but you know what they say … the seventh time's the charm.
Pick: de Graaf Moneyline (+210 at FanDuel)
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Keegan Brown vs. Boris Krcmar
- bet365 match odds: +150/-188
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +215/-215
- 2023 average: 89.47, 91.98
- Avg. since Sep 1: 87.32, 91.82
- Most 180 odds: Brown +100, Tie +400, Krcmar +150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.18, 0.17
This match has seen some serious line movement, perhaps more than any of the other opening round affairs. Though the giant Croat Boris Krcmar is a substantial -188 favorite now, he actually opened at even odds, with Keegan Brown the -125 favorite.
I still took Krcmar a couple days after lines opened at -140 and was a bit mad at myself because A) I don't love taking a line after it's already moved that much and 2) I wasn't sure how much value was truly left at that price.
DartsOrakel thought quite a fair bit and I guess the market did, too, as his odds have just kept going up. At this point, I don't really think the moneyline has that much left in it, but the 180 market looks like it could.
The two dartists nearly have identical 180 rates, though Krcmar is still +150 to Brown's +100. Of course the tie is always in play, but I think this is the way to go if you still want to back Boris.
Pick: Krcmar most 180s (+150 at bet365)
James Wade (13) vs. Matt Campbell
- bet365 match odds: -350/+275
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -279/+279
- 2023 average: 94.55, 90.70
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.85, 90.22
- Most 180 odds: Wade +100, Tie +400, Campbell +150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.20, 0.11
The Ginja Ninja Matt Campbell returns to the stage after winning a thrilling affair against Lourence Ilagan the other day. This time, his opponent — The Machine James Wade — is a bit more scary.
I will once again be looking to the 180s market here. James Wade is not a huge 180 hitter, but he still hits them nearly twice as often as Campbell does.
Similar statistical situations have resulted in much different odds (see the Pietreczko vs. Suzuki match a bit further down the article) so I'm quite intrigued at Wade's odds here. Heck, some books have the same "match double" odds of him winning and hitting the most 180s as other books have for just him to hit the most 180s.
With that said, I'll take the lefty to fill up the red bit more often than the redhead.
Pick: Wade Most 180s (+110 at FanDuel)
Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Steve Beaton vs. Wessel Nijman
- bet365 match odds: +137/-175
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +262/-262
- 2023 average: 91.57, 93.12
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.25, N/A
- Most 180 odds: Beaton +400, Tie +600, Nijman -300
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.20, 0.33
On one hand, you have The Bronzed Adonis, Steve Beaton — a 59-year-old legend who sports a mustache and walks on to the Bee-Gees. On the other, you have Wessel Nijman, a 23-year-old Dutchman who you can find giving an educational speech regarding the dangers of match fixing (because he was indeed caught and suspended 2.5 years for match fixing) on YouTube.
Nijman has the better numbers and I suppose you can't blame bettors for taking him — after opening at -150, he's moved to -175. At one point the line had gotten even higher, but there was some buyback on Beaton in the +160 range.
Nijman's most recent action of note was back in August in the World Youth Championship, in which he rattled off three straight 100+ averages, the last of which was a last-leg loss to Gian van Veen.
This is the Ally Pally, though. This ain't playing on the floor. Beaton has been around the block a few dozen times. We know what he is and that a R1 match isn't going to throw him off his game. We have literally no idea what the stage will do to Nijman. Hell, he could thrive on it, but I'm betting that nerves will lead to opportunities for Beaton.
I won't lie, Nijman scares me a bit, and with Beaton's moneyline having already lost about 20 cents, I'll look to the spread.
Pick: Beaton +1.5 (-148 at FanDuel)
Mike De Decker vs. Dragutin Horvat
- bet365 match odds: -275/+220
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -136, +136
- 2023 average: 93.41, 88.28
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.47, 88.46
- Most 180 odds: De Decker -275, Tie +550, Horvat +350
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.32, 0.19
One of the world's biggest 180 hitters, Mike De Decker, can score with the best of 'em, but he doesn't win with the best of 'em. He qualified for a handful of majors this year, which is good, but he still has yet to make any sort of big tourney run thus far in his career.
One thing is for sure, though, and that is that he has more big stage experience than his opponent, Dragutin Horvat despite being nearly 20 years his junior. That is likely what has bettors backing him, as he's moved from -225 to -275 since opening. The advanced stats don't agree that he should be nearly that big of a favorite, though, pegging De Decker at just -136.
I reckon the true line should be somewhere in the middle of the two, which is why if anything, I may look to back Horvat.
Pick: Lean Horvat
Ricardo Pietreczko vs. Mikuru Suzuki
- bet365 match odds: -1000/+600
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -1695/+1695
- 2023 average: 93.91, 78.68
- Avg. since Sep 1: 94.64, 77.62
- Most 180 odds: Pietreczko -275, Tie +450, Suzuki +450
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.20, 0.12
If Ricardo "Pikachu" Pietreczko wants to "catch 'em all" and win all the darting majors, the World Championship would be a nice place to start.
The German shows talent and pulled off some crazy wins during a European Tour win in his home country, including the finals against Peter Wright where he went 8-8 on the doubles. You just don't see that.
He also showed some serious mental shortcomings in the Grand Slam, which featured an English crowd that was on his back.
I don't think that will be a big enough factor in this opening round match against Mikuru Suzuki, one of two females in the tournament along with Fallon Sherrock, but it is something to keep an eye on. If you're looking for a reason to back Suzuki straight up or on the spread, that would be it, as they are just too far apart in terms of straight up numbers.
I am going to stay away from this one, though, and hopefully watch a good show.
Pick: Pass
Michael van Gerwen (2) vs. Keane Barry
- bet365 match odds: -1200/+700
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -901/+901
- 2023 average: 98.33, 90.79
- Avg. since Sep 1: 98.86, 91.99
- Most 180 odds: van Gerwen -250, Tie +500, Barry +333
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.28, 0.17
I sense pain.
The legend Mighty Michael van Gerwen is hoping to win his fourth World Championship this year. Meanwhile, Keane Barry is hoping to win his third match at Ally Pally over the course of five years.
Similar to the Luke Humphries-Lee Evans match the other night, I am going to fade the big name and look for the lesser player to take just a single set by taking the +2.5 set line.
Evans screwed the pooch, failing to hit something around 10 doubles to win the third set before Humphries got it done and dusted 3-0. I am praying Barry can pull through for us, here. Right now, he's at +110 on the spread at most books, but Caesars is way off the market, posting a +160.
If you can still get that, do it. If not, I still think Barry is the way to go, but I'd suggest waiting until closer to match time as I expect the public to move the line toward MvG.
Pick: Barry +2.5 (+160 at Caesars)
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