Darts are back! After taking a few days off for Christmas, action returns to Alexandra Palace in London for the first Round 3 matches of the PDC World Darts Championship.
Of note, the matches are now first-to-four sets rather than first-to-three, perhaps making it even tougher for underdogs to hold superior players.
The Wednesday slate has plenty to offer, particularly in the evening, with appearances by teenage star Luke Littler and former World Champs Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith.
Here's a full breakdown of all six matches on the day:
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Scott Williams vs. Martin Schindler (26)
- bet365 match odds: +162/-200
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +101/-101
- 2023 average: 91.29, 94.26
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.20, 94.98
- Most 180 odds: Williams +110, Tie +700, Schindler +110
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.25, 0.30
The first match of the day features Scott "Shaggy" Williams against Martin "The Wall" Schindler.
Williams is coming off a casual 3-0 upset against No. 7 seed Danny Noppert in which he was a dart away from a nine-darter. He will certainly be feeling it right now, but finds himself as a dog again in R3 to Schindler.
While the oddsmakers are giving Shaggy about a 40% chance of winning, DartsOrakel thinks this is a toss-up, so I will be on Williams again for another upset. However, I do think there's a way bettors can back Schindler, and that's the 180s market.
On average this year, over the course of 24 legs (around the ballpark expected of this match), Williams would be expected to hit six maximums to Schindler's seven-plus. Yet the odds at each book suggest they are of equal skill on the red bit. With that in mind, I'll take Schindler as well at plus-money to out-180 his opponent.
Pick: Williams ML +162 (bet365), Schindler Most 180s +115 (FanDuel)
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Dave Chisnall (11) vs. Gabriel Clemens (22)
- bet365 match odds: -175/+137
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -162/+162
- 2023 average: 96.09, 94.09
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.93, 94.64
- Most 180 odds: Chisnall -150, Tie +750, Clemens +150
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.35, 0.26
Hereeee's Chizzy! Dave Chisnall and the "German Giant" Gabriel Clemens return for a seeded showdown and what should be one of the closest matches of the day per the oddsmakers.
Chizzy has been a little hit and miss this year, struggling in majors, but doing well on the European Tour and Players Championship circuits. Clemens had also been struggling in majors after reaching the semis at last year's Worlds, but is coming off a semifinal appearance in the most recent major, the Players Championship Finals.
There doesn't appear to be much value in the moneyline, but I'll look to Chizzy to fill up the lipstick more than his counterpart. He's one of the world's best 180-hitters and you can see the sizable gap in the statistics between him and Clemens.
The German certainly is no slouch in this category, but the numbers suggest Chizzy should be around -175, yet can be found at -140.
Pick: Chisnall Most 180s -140 (FanDuel)
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Rob Cross (8) vs. Jeffrey De Graaf
- bet365 match odds: -600/+400
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -943/+943
- 2023 average: 96.18, 85.70
- Avg. since Sep 1: 97.19, 86.42
- Most 180 odds: Cross -150, Tie +600, De Graaf +175
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.23, 0.18
Rob Cross's route to a second World Championship title has been favorable thus far, as he landed a fairly tame opponent last round in Thibault Tricole and lucked out by drawing Jeffrey De Graaf here in R3. De Graaf upset Jose De Sousa last round and has admittedly played quite well so far this tournament, averaging 93 and 94 in his two matches — well above his yearly average.
I think this is where his run ends, though. I thought that against De Sousa, too, and was proven wrong, but Cross is a different beast. He's been playing at an elite level as of late, and even if De Graaf can repeat his above-average performance, Cross will likely still be the better of the two.
This match is also a good example of how the darts betting market is inefficient. Caesars is posting Cross at -400, well below most other books, which have him listed between -600 and -650. I'm not a fan of paying big moneyline prices, but the value at Caesars cannot be ignored. In fact, it's opening up some arbitrage opportunities depending on where you look.
If that price disappears, I still think there's enough value on Cross to tack him onto another play as a parlay piece.
Pick: Cross -400 (Caesars), parlay piece elsewhere or look for arb ops
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Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Matt Campbell vs. Luke Littler
- bet365 match odds: +275/-350
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +213/-213
- 2023 average: 90.85, 92.35
- Avg. since Sep 1: 90.79, 91.82
- Most 180 odds: Campbell +1200, Tie 900, Littler -1000
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.12, 0.31
Luke "The Nuke" Littler, just 16 years old and fresh off a visit from Santa Claus, will look to continue his astonishing debut on the big stage.
After posting a 106-average in R1, he fell back to Earth a bit in R2, but was still able to beat a very capable player in Andrew Gilding. This match looks easier on paper against Matt Campbell, but the Canadian is coming off a nice upset win against James Wade and is unlikely to roll over after making it this far.
While I like Litter to continue his fairytale run, I am fading him in a particular way — the three-dart average. Unfortunately, multiple sportsbooks have not offered odds on Littler's matches and do not even feature him in the title odds (perhaps because he is only 16), but this prop can be found at DraftKings, one of the couple American sportsbooks offering odds on the match.
The line is 97.5, something Littler has proven he can top by a wide margin, but still a very high mark, especially over the course of a longer match like this. To put it in perspective, only four players have averaged higher than this over the course of the year and it's more than five points north of Littler's seasonal average.
Littler's average is also unlikely to benefit from Campbell's play. What I mean is that on some occasions, someone will play so well that they aren't even allowing their opponent chances at doubles, the part of the leg most likely to bring down one's average. If Littler were playing an elite player, this may happen, but Campbell is highly unlikely to put in the type of performance that would yield this result.
With all this said, I'll cross my fingers and hope Littler isn't up to some more angsty teenage record-setting numbers.
Pick: Littler under 97.5 average (DraftKings)
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Michael van Gerwen (2) vs. Richard Veenstra
- bet365 match odds: -900/+550
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -521/+521
- 2023 average: 98.33, 92.81
- Avg. since Sep 1: 98.84, 93.48
- Most 180 odds: van Gerwen -175, Tie +600, Veenstra +225
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.28, 0.22
Richard Veenstra had a shockingly lopsided win last round against Kim "The Hurricane" Huybrechts, in which he won 3-0 in sets and 9-0 in legs. More like Kim "Tropical Depression" Huybrechts. Am I right, folks?
I'll go out on a limb and say that Veenstra won't be able to blank his fellow Dutchman Michael van Gerwen in legs, though. He's proven he's a very strong player who we may be seeing more of in tournaments to come, but he'll be feeling a lot of pressure against the legendary Mighty Mike.
van Gerwen averaged 98 in a nonchalant 3-0 win against Keane Barry to begin his quest for World Championship number four and we should expect that level of play again given it's what he's been doing all year long.
Longshot lovers might find a little value on Veenstra, whom DartsOrakel suggests should be +521 on the fair market (there are a couple of +600s out there), but MvG is just too scary for me and I'll be laying off entirely.
Pick: Pass
Michael Smith (1) vs. Madars Razma
- bet365 match odds: -800/+500
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -221/+221
- 2023 average: 95.85, 90.56
- Avg. since Sep 1: 95.37, 91.25
- Most 180 odds: Smith -700, Tie +850, Razma +700
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.31, 0.13
The final match of the day features the reigning World Champ, Michael Smith, and Latvia's top player, Madars Razma.
The Bully Boy had his hands full in the first match of his title defense, as Kevin Doets averaged 99 and took Smith to a fifth set. Yet it was the champ and his 100 average that prevailed.
The DartsOrakel FDI index is still throwing some shade at Smith thanks to some subpar results in the lead up to the tournament, suggesting he should be only a -221 favorite vs. Razmatazz. Let's just say if an oddsmaker posted that price at a real sportsbook, they'd probably be looking for a new job.
I don't think Razma will be able to topple Smith, but I don't expect a blowout, either. The set spread for these big R3 favorites is 2.5, meaning Smith would need to beat Razma 4-0 or 4-1 to cover. Razma's offering a nice plus-money payout to cover that spread and Smith's game has shown enough holes in it as of late for me to back the Latvian.
Pick: Razma +2.5 +135 (BetMGM)
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