After a rousing start to the third round on Wednesday, there are six more third-round matches on Thursday split across two slates in what could be an absolute cracker factory of a day.
The afternoon session features two seeded showdowns that should be very close, one between Joe Cullen and Ryan Searle and the other boasting Ross Smith and Chris Dobey. The evening slate is nothing to scoff at either as it features a couple of the top favorites, Gerwyn Price and Luke Humphries, both playing their second matches of the tournament.
Find my PDC World Darts Championship Day 11 betting predictions and best bets below.
Afternoon Session: 7:30 a.m. ET
Florian Hempel vs. Stephen Bunting (18)
- bet365 match odds: +350/-500
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +571/-571
- 2023 average: 89.39, 95.85
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.62, 97.35
- Most 180 odds: Hempel +300, Tie +750, Bunting -275
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.22, 0.30
Florian Hempel pulled one out of his hat last week when he came back from the dead to upset Dimitri Van den Bergh. Dancin' Dimmy is a big name, but he's nowhere near as in form as "The Bullet," Stephen Bunting, is.
Bunting has been a top-five player in the world in terms of averages lately and has been winning a ton of matches in the process. Hempel got hot at the end of his last match to make that comeback possible, but he's far too wild and inconsistent to beat Bunting or push him to the brink.
Consequently, I'm looking to bet the spread here. I did make an initial moneyline bet on Bunting at -350, but the cheapest I can see now is -450. However, taking Bunting to win by at least two sets still offers value. DartsOrakel projects the fair odds for this outcome at about -250, but at -200 there's a bit of a discount here.
Pick: Bunting -1.5 (-200 | Caesars)
Joe Cullen (14) vs. Ryan Searle (19)
- bet365 match odds: +110/-138
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -107/+107
- 2023 average: 94.59, 95.28
- Avg. since Sep 1: 93.33, 95.45
- Most 180 odds: Cullen -138, Tie +750, Searle +137
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.32, 0.26
The second match is one you don't want to miss between two studs in Joe Cullen and Ryan Searle facing off in what could be an absolute cracker.
Cullen hasn't been in tip-top form lately, but this one should be a coin flip, and DartsOrakel actually has him as a slight favorite.
I won't overthink this one — there's not a ton of value here, but at +112, Cullen is worth a bet.
Pick: Cullen +112 (FanDuel)
Ross Smith (16) vs. Chris Dobey (17)
- bet365 match odds: -110/-110
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -128/+128
- 2023 average: 96.17, 95.92
- Avg. since Sep 1: 96.89, 95.94
- Most 180 odds: Smith -120, Tie +750, Dobey +110
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.37, 0.31
The afternoon finishes with another potential cracker as the oddsmakers have priced it as a true toss-up.
Ross Smith actually opened up as a tiny plus-money underdog, but bettors scooped up that value pretty quickly. At this point, there may be a bit of value remaining on Smudger, but there's another bet I'm eying instead.
I have not done much over/under betting this tournament, but this is one I have trouble seeing going the other way. Obviously, there's a very real chance it does because…sports, but one of these players blowing the other one out of the water either 4-0 or 4-1 feels incredibly unlikely.
The advanced projections from DartsOrakel think this market is pretty fairly priced (they have it around -165), so this is less scientific than my plays typically have been, but there's still a wee bit of value on paper and oodles more in my mind.
Pick: Over 5.5 Sets (-160 | DraftKings)
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Evening Session: 2 p.m. ET
Gerwyn Price (5) vs. Brendan Dolan (28)
- bet365 match odds: -900/+550
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -1351/+1351
- 2023 average: 98.64, 92.42
- Avg. since Sep 1: 98.42, 92.56
- Most 180 odds: Price -500, Tie +800, Dolan +500
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.33, 0.15
The Iceman returns in Round 3, and, shocker, he's a huge favorite against Brendan Dolan.
It's tough to bet on the big boys without paying a big price, but Price is appealing to me on the good old exact-score prop. Although "The History Maker" did shock Price in the first round of the Matchplay this year, doing so again would be a historical feat in its own right.
Though Price is nearly -1000 to win, the numbers suggest he should be even higher than that. However, if we look to the exact-score prop, the second-most likely outcome, Price to win 4-1, can be had at a juicy +240. The projections have that and a 4-0 Price sweep with nearly identical probabilities (around +215 odds), but most books are offering 4-1 at a chunkier payout.
Pick: Price to Win 4-1 +240 (DraftKings)
Luke Humphries (3) vs. Ricardo Pietreczko
- bet365 match odds: -600/+400
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: -1235/+1235
- 2023 average: 98.38, 93.90
- Avg. since Sep 1: 99.34, 94.60
- Most 180 odds: Humphries -300, Tie +800, Pietreczko +300
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.33, 0.20
The pre-tourney favorite, Luke Humphries, sort of sailed to an easy second-round win against Lee Evans in which he didn't really show the elite stuff he had displayed the past few months. He will need to step it back up, though, as…what's that? A wild Pikachu appeared!
Ricardo "Pikachu" Pietreczko is a very capable opponent, one Humphries certainly doesn't want to face this early in the tournament. The advanced stats suggest Humphries should be a gigantic favorite, but like the oddsmakers, I think Pikachu deserves more respect than that.
The problem is…I just don't know where the value lies here. An early line of Humphries -400 at Caesars certainly looked like a bargain, and perhaps line-shoppers will still like the -500 they are posting, but I'm afraid the immense pressure on Humphries this year may be more hurtful than helpful.
Pick: Pass
Ricky Evans vs. Daryl Gurney (27)
- bet365 match odds: +150/-188
- DartsOrakel FDI fair odds: +176/-176
- 2023 average: 93.02, 94.99
- Avg. since Sep 1: 92.68, 95.25
- Most 180 odds: Evans +162, Tie +650, Gurney -125
- 2023 180s per leg: 0.24, 0.24
The day wraps up with a couple of players who just put in some lovely performances in the second round. Rapid Ricky Evans stunned the World Matchplay champ, Nathan Aspinall, with a 3-0 win, while Superchin Daryl Gurney averaged 100.79 in his win over Steve Beaton.
The moneyline appears to be fairly priced in this one, but the 180s market looks appetizing. We've had a handful of matches like this one where the 180 stats really have nothing in them, but the odds have a sizable gap between the two players.
This market is perhaps influenced by some recency bias, as Gurney hit eight maximums against the Bronzed Adonis, but this is a statistic that can be fairly random over the short course of a single match.
With that said, Rapid Ricky is the bet to make in my mind. The tie is always in play but becomes less likely in longer matches. At +165, there's a slight statistical edge per the advanced metrics, but I still think when it comes to 180s, there doesn't need to be too much number crunching to find value.
Pick: Evans Most 180s +165 (FanDuel)
